The Seattle Mariners

There are 2 ways to guarantee that I enjoy reading a baseball article: 1) Mention "Bedard for Jones" and 2) Reference the unfortunate saga of Adrian Beltre's man parts. Paul Campbell, covering Seattle here for a second straight year, does both of those. He also gives a thorough and honest assessment of the state of the Seattle ball club. And for his bold prediction of October baseball in the Great Northwest, I tip my cap in his direction. This is a very enjoyable read.

--TQ


2009 Recap
In the eyes of the national media, the Mariners were a surprise success, rebounding from baseball’s first $100 million payroll / 100 loss season in 2008 to post an 85-77 record, finishing third in the AL West. The team’s rapid change of fortune can be primarily attributed to first-year GM Jack Zduriencik and his statistically- and defensively-minded front office.

2010 Offseason Moves
Out
C Kenji Johjima, watching his playing time decline along with his productivity in 2009, did the Mariners a favor by opting out of the final two years of his contract and returning to Japan without demanding a buyout, freeing about $8 million in payroll in 2010 and 2011.

1B/DH Russell Branyan, the team’s primary source of power in 2009 (.251/.347/.520/.368 wOBA), declined a one-year extension and opted to test free agency, where he returned to Cleveland. Uncertainty about his health and 2009 back injuries likely played a role in his inability to get a multi-year contract anywhere, as the Indians signed him to a 1/$2M contract for 2010.

3B Adrian Beltre (.305 wOBA / 2.4 WAR in 2009), he of the torn testicle, self-checking swing, and many other eccentricities, also declined to sign a new contract with the Mariners, choosing instead to try to boost his offensive numbers in the friendlier environment of Fenway Park, signing a one-year deal with the Red Sox.

SP/RP-R Brandon Morrow, SP/RP-L Philippe Aumont, and SP/RP-R Carlos Silva all left the organization with the sort of clarity that they never experienced while Mariners. Morrow and the club both equivocated over his value as a starter or out of the bullpen, and the one-time closer never firmly established a role. Likewise, former top draft pick Philippe Aumont was converted to a reliever within the Mariner minor league system, but will apparently return to starting with the Phillies. Carlos Silva alternated between the rotation and the bullpen because he just plain sucked and if I say much more about him I’ll be angry. Enjoy Chicago, you asshat.

Also out: RP Chris Jakubauskus (to PIT), AAA SP Justin Thomas (to PIT), AA SP JC Ramirez (to PHI), AA OF Tyson Gillies (to PHI), UT Bill Hall (to BOS),AA RP Gaby Hernandez (to BOS). None of these players were likely to make a significant impact in 2010. The closest was Hall, who spent an unremarkable second half of 2009 in Seattle before being traded to the Red Sox in the offseason

In
SP-L CLIFF LEE! Cliff Lee (3.63 tRA / 5.6 WAR in 2009) pitching in Safeco, in front of the Mariners’ vaunted defense, makes me tingly inside. Lee, acquired via trade December 18 and therefore possibly the best Christmas present ever, only has one year remaining on his contract but it should be a year to watch, as he will pair with Felix Hernandez to form one of the most formidable 1-2 combinations of any rotation in baseball.

3B-B Chone Figgins: The dismantling of the Angels dynasty was rapid, with two of LA’s most productive players leaving Anaheim in the offseason. The Mariners were the beneficiary of one of the departures, signing Figgins to a 4/$36M contract. Figgins is coming off the most productive season of his career, as he posted a .358 wOBA and was an elite defensive 3B, posting a +16.3 UZR in 2009. All told, Figgins was worth 6.1 wins above replacement in 2009, and while that level of performance is unlikely to be repeated in 2010, Figgins is an extremely valuable player and will fill the void left by Adrian Beltre’s absence if not similarly, then approximately. Figgins doesn’t have anywhere near Beltre’s power but gets on base at an impressive clip and is equally proficient in the field.

LF/DH-B Milton Bradley: Milton Bradley for Carlos Silva may be the greatest trade pulled off anywhere in baseball this offseason. Cubs and Mariners fans alike are ecstatic to be rid of their team’s problem children. The difference between the two is that Milton Bradley, when healthy and sane, is still a productive baseball player. Bradley will probably split time between LF and DH. The Mariners will look to get his bat in the lineup especially against LHPs.

1B-L Casey Kotchman and 1B/DH-R Ryan Garko: These two are likely to platoon at first, with both picking up occasional DH at-bats and Garko potentially filling in at the corner outfield spots if injury forces the Mariners' hand. Neither will replicate the power production of Branyan, but as platoon partners they may come close to replicating his total offensive value. Production will come more from walks, gap power, and not striking out as hilariously often as Branyan.

RP-R Brandon League: League came from Toronto in exchange for the Mariners’ Brandon, and will occupy his spot in the bullpen as a late-inning setup man for nominal closer David Aardsma. League’s splitter is one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball, so there’s that.

Also in: OF Eric Byrnes, C Josh Bard, RP Yusmeiro Petit, RP Kanekoa Texeira, some other guys who oh my god they are boring and you probably shouldn’t care about them.

2010 Outlook

Offense
The 2010 Seattle Mariners were not constructed to score runs. The 2009 team scored only 640 runs, lowest in the American League, and improving the offense has not been an explicit priority of the front office in the offseason.

Projected Lineup (2010 projected AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA from CHONE, via Fangraphs)
C Rob Johnson (.244/303/350/289)
1B (L) Casey Kotchman (.265/333/401/325) / (R) Ryan Garko (.261/337/424/336)
2B Jose Lopez (.283/316/449/331)
SS Jack Wilson (.255/299/359/291)
3B Chone Figgins (.272/370/358/334)
LF (R) Milton Bradley (.262/368/427/353) / (L) Ryan Langerhans (.229/323/375/311)
CF Franklin Gutierrez (.270/327/420/329)
RF Ichiro Suzuki (.313/346/410/338)

UT-L Jack Hannahan (.225/322/347/302)
OF-R Eric Byrnes (.233/288/373/295)
C-R Adam Moore (.251/307/381/304)
“DH”-L Ken Griffey Jr. (.217/308/368/304)

Defense
Team defense was the Mariners' calling card in 2009, and the 2010 team is constructed to be even stronger defensively. This is what getting rid of Yuniesky Betancourt, whose bafflingly regular playing time in Kansas City puts him in consideration for the dubious honor of worst player in baseball* and getting a full season of plus-defensive SS Jack Wilson will do for you. On balance, the Mariners' offseason transactions mitigated against the loss of the defensively outstanding Adrian Beltre, and improved the team's defense at 1B with the substitution of the Kotchman/Garko platoon for Branyan. Still roaming Safeco will be Jose Lopez, Ichiro Suzuki, and Franklin Gutierrez, who put up the best defensive season by UZR since the statistic was created, an astounding 29.6 runs above average in CF. Franklin Gutierrez was one of the most productive players in all of baseball last year. He is a gentleman and a scholar.

*This is no exaggeration: By Wins Above Replacement, Yuniesky Betancourt was far and away the worst player in baseball in 2009, somehow managing to suck without getting benched/sent to AAA/shipped back to Cuba to a 2.2 wins below replacement performance. That such a consistently poor player kept getting time makes you wonder how Dayton Moore still has a job.

Individual defensive metrics are still inexact compared to their offensive counterparts, so assigning defensive values to players is best done as a general range of how many runs above/below average their glove is worth. That said, based on previous years' UZR data with some adjustment for aging here are the 2010 Mariners:

1B Kotchman/Garko (platoon) +10>x>0
2B Jose Lopez +5>x>-5
SS Jack Wilson +10>x>0
3B Chone Figgins +15>x>+5
LF Bradley/Langerhans (platoon) +5>x>-5
CF Franklin Gutierrez +20>x>+10
RF Ichiro Suzuki +15>x>+5


Pitching
The 2009 Mariners were an interesting experiment: Could you take a mediocre pitcher, put him in a pitcher-friendly park, give him the best defensive outfield in baseball, and make him look spectacular? Following what transpired last year, I move that the park+defense combination boosting an otherwise average pitcher to ridiculous hype be named the Jarrod Washburn Corollary. Washburn, changing very little in his fundamental performance, ran a sub-3.00 ERA for long enough for him to be dangled out as a shiny thing on the trade market that Detroit was cooperative enough to snap up, sending Washburn to Comerica Park with predictable results.

Rotation (2010 projected IP, FIP from CHONE, via Fangraphs)
SP-R Felix Hernandez (200 IP, 3.34 FIP)
I can't believe that I just talked about the 2009 Mariners starting pitching by bringing up Jarrod Washburn when King Felix was there for the mentioning as well. The King finally ascended to his throne in 2009, turning in a dominating performance by just about any metric available on his way to finishing 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting to an other-worldly Zack Greinke.

SP-L Cliff Lee (197, 3.43)
I assume most people know of Cliff Lee from his Cy Young-winning exploits and World Series appearances with the Indians and Phillies, so there's little point in rehashing just how consistently productive Lee is. And he's going to be the #2 pitcher to Felix. And Felix will be turning only 24 years old around Opening Day. I can't stress this enough. Assuming he stays healthy, Felix could be one of the best pitchers in baseball for a long time. And he now has a long-term deal in place in Seattle.

SP-L Ryan Rowland-Smith (160, 4.46)
Ryan Rowland-Smith was converted into a full-time starter in 2009, coming up from Tacoma to notch 15 thoroughly adequate starts. He's not an amazing talent, a pitch to contact moderate flyballer who benefited from a low BABIP and a low HR/FB rate last year, but he delivers average performance for league-minimum salary, is Australian, and seems like a cool enough guy, so Mariners fans love him.

SP-L Ian Snell (175, 4.49)
Ian Snell, by all accounts, hated Pittsburgh to the point where he refused to be promoted back from AAA because he was depressed to be in the majors. I bring up this point for no particular reason other than to point out that Pittsburgh blows. He's apparently much happier in Seattle; unfortunately, the pitching is still a work in progress. The Mariners are trying to reclaim the pitcher that appeared to be on the verge of a long successful career in 2007, but the trend isn't looking good, with Snell posting worse numbers across the board in 2009. Talent alone makes him a perpetual high-upside starter, but right now there are questions about whether his mechanics and psyche will ever be put together enough for him to find sustained success at the major league level.

SP-? Spring Training Winner / SP-L Erik Bedard (106, 3.64)
The Mariners fifth starter will probably depend on spring training performances, with 2009 revelation Doug Fister, Jason Vargas, Garrett Olson, and Lucas French the most likely candidates to pick up the spot. None of them are all that interesting, and Lucas French may be actively trying to bore you with his Jarrod Washburn impersonation. What he has against you that makes him want to kill your fun I'm not sure, but you'll have to take that up with him.

Also, Erik Bedard...God. Erik Bedard. It's not that we don't like you, Erik, it's that the only saving grace of the trade that brought you to Seattle [and gave Baltimore Adam Jones, George Sherrill, and three pitching prospects] was that it may have been what ultimately sealed the fate of the former front office. Free agent Bedard signed a one-year contract to return to the Mariners in the offseason, but recovery from surgery will push the 2010 debut of Bedard and his shiny bionic labrum to mid-season at earliest. Erik Bedard has made maybe ten starts as a fully-healthy member of the Mariners in two years, and has been exceptional in those starts. If all surgery and rehab procedures go well and Bedard can actually stay healthy*, he may be the best #3 starter in the AL.

* No way this happens.

Bullpen
CL-R David Aardsma
Aardsma might be the most terrifying closer ever to save 38 of 42 opportunities. In 2009, he struck out 27.1% of batters faced but also walked an above-average 11.5%. The real concern, though, is his tendency to give up warning-track fly balls. Either David Aardsma is some freak anomaly who has figured out how to give up long but harmless fly balls, or his 4% HR/FB is due for some serious regression, and when you allow 54% fly balls as a closer, regression translates to a lot of 9th inning home runs given up.

RP-R Shawn Kelley
Kelley is a two-pitch reliever with a low-90s fastball and a capable slider. His changeup is largely ineffectual and rarely thrown. Kelley missed two months of his rookie season with an oblique injury, and there are concerns over whether he suffered any ill effects, but the velocity on his fastball returned following his injury.

RP-R Mark Lowe
Lowe brings slightly higher velocity than Kelley, with his fastball topping out in the mid-90s region on average. A pretty standard setup guy, with an ability to strike batters out nothing exceptional, with the exception of his slider, which took a leap forward in effectiveness in 2009.

RP-R Brandon League
League, like Lowe and Kelley, will be a potential replacement should regression catch up to David Aardsma and causes him to lose the closer role. League is fascinating in that he was once a fastball-dominant pitcher who introduced a splitter in 2009 that promptly became the most effective pitch at generating swinging strikes in all of baseball. 35% of splitters thrown were swung at and missed, an absurd percentage that is five percentage points above the second most-effective (Ryan Madson's changeup, if you're interested). It is an absolute thing of beauty to behold, and could be the secret to League developing sustained success as a Mariner.

RP-R Kanekoa Texeira
I put Kanekoa Texeira here because there are two things I know about Kanekoa Texeira: (a) he was a Rule 5 pick from the Yankees which means he either has to stay on the major league roster or go back to New York and (b) his name is spelled differently than Mark Teixeira's. I anticipate Kanekoa Texeira being boringly adequate as a middle reliever, and really, that's all you can ask out of your 6th/7th inning pitchers.

Other names that will probably make use of the convenient 30-minute drive between Seattle and the Mariners' AAA affiliate in Tacoma include Sean White, Josh Fields, and Mike Koplove. If any of them play a prominent role in the Mariners' fortunes then something has gone horribly, horribly wrong.

Outlook / Projection
Two years ago, the Mariners’ previous GM, Bill Bavasi, was optimistic for the coming year. The Mariners were coming off a season in which they had won 88 games and challenged for the playoffs, and the approach was one of incremental improvement. Unfortunately, 2007 was a fluke and the 2008 roster had deep, systemic issues that could not be improved by marginal improvements. This became abundantly clear as the team staggered to a 101-loss season, ultimately costing Bavasi his job. (I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Erik Bedard-Adam Jones trade probably expedited his dismissal. Good looking out, Baltimore.)

This year, the Mariners are coming off an 85-win season in which they only scored 640 runs and were outscored. That would seemingly be a recipe for Fluke ver. 2, yet this year is different. The 2009 roster was not really a 640-run team by true talent, as a combination of individual bad luck and a total lack of offensive production from 3B, SS, and LF made theMariners look artificially anemic. The 2010 roster will not amaze anyone offensively, and may be downright mediocre, but that is not where the Mariners have chosen to compete.

The 2010 Mariners are built on a foundation of pitching and defense. The pitching is highlighted by one former Cy Young winner and a 24 year old who is coming off the best year of his career, when he nearly picked up a Cy Young in his own right. There are questions about the back of the rotation, especially in the first half of the season until Erik Bedard returns to claim the #3 starter spot, but the top of the rotation will compete with any in baseball as the most dominant collection of pitching talent on a single roster.

The defense that was one of the best in baseball in 2009 has been bolstered by the addition of Wilson at short, Kotchman and Garko at first, and Figgins at third, to complement a simply stellar outfield anchored by Gutierrez. There will be very few balls put in play that are guaranteed hits with this defense.

The AL West is going to be a notoriously difficult division this year. Both Oakland and Texas have added high-risk, high-reward pitchers who are staff aces when healthy, in Ben Sheets and Rich Harden respectively. In fact, the Angels, dominant in the division for the past five years, are the only team that did not make significant improvements in the offseason, yet remain a threat to win the division.

The 2010 Mariners season will manifest in an odd boom-or-bust phenomenon. On pure talent the Mariners may be the best team in the AL West, but will rely on winning low-scoring games to outpace their division rivals. If they can manage to find their way into the playoffs, though, the roster is constructed for short-series success with an unmatched top of the rotation and an elite defense. As constructed, I see no reason why the Mariners couldn't win the World Series, but getting their foot in the door will be a bigger challenge.

Bold prediction: 90-72, and a very close 1st place in the AL West. Lose in the ALCS to the Red Sox or Yankees.