Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 2010 Preview

Many thanks to Chris George for an excellent effort. It takes a big man to write an honest preview of the team that ended his team's season in 2009. We at baseballbreaksyourheart.com believe that good honest analysis entitles us to take occasional liberties with the names of rival teams. You may learn some new names for the Yankees in what follows. Enjoy!
--TQ


2009 in Review
During the first decade of the 21st century, Mike Scioscia’s Angels put together the best decade in the franchise’s history. The winning ways continued in 2009. The club won the AL West title in convincing fashion, finishing on top of the second place Texas Rangers by 10 games. It was an emotional season, following the tragic death of 22 year old pitcher Nick Adenhart after his first start in April, but behind Scioscia’s steady hand, the team ended the season with a record of 97-65.
Offensively, the team scored 883 runs, second in the major leagues. First baseman Kendry Morales, in his first full season at the major league level, finished fifth in MVP voting, averaging .306/.355/.569. Third baseman Chone Figgins hit .298/.363/.388 with 42 stolen bases out of the leadoff spot. Torii Hunter (.299/.366/.508) had one of the best seasons of his career at the plate. And 35 year old Bobby Abreu continued to produce in his first season in California (.293/.390/.435, 30 SB), and as we would be told interminably during the postseason, he was an excellent example of patience at the plate for the team’s young hitters. But this was a formidable line up one through nine. The team ranked 1st in the majors in batting average (.285), 2nd in on base percentage (.350), 4th in slugging (.441).
The pitching staff was solid, if not spectacular, finished 9th in the majors with a 4.45 team ERA. Jered Weaver and Joe Saunders paced the club with 16 wins. Scott Kazmir was stellar after being traded from Tampa Bay: 6 starts, 1.73 ERA, 260 ERA+. Darren Oliver continued the resurrection of his career as reliever extraordinaire (5-1, 2.71 ERA, 8.01 K/9, 1.14 WHIP, 30 holds). And new closer Brian Fuentes saved 48 games, albeit many in white knuckle fashion (1-5, 3.90 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7 blown saves).

In the postseason, the California Anaheim Los Angeles Angels accomplished something that had never been done in franchise history. In 1986, 2004, 2007, 2008 the Angels were knocked out of the playoffs by the Red Sox. This wouldn’t be the case in 2009. After cruising to a 5-0 victory in game 1, the Angels took game 2 4-1 on a 7th inning rally of Josh Beckett. Game 3 went to Fenway, and with Boston up 5-2 going into the 8th, some had visions of a series comeback and another Angels playoff bid ending with a whimper to the Sox. But 2 runs in the 8th, 3 in the 9th, and an epic collapse by Jonathan Papelbon later, the Angels had the 7-6 victory and were off to the next round.
They were off to the Bronx to take on Hell’s Satans…more frequently known as the New York Yankees. And what followed was a veritable heavyweight bout. The Yankees took the first 2 at home, winning 4-1 and 4-3, but the Angels closed the series deficit to 3 games to 2 after the trip west. Game 4 was a decisive 10-1 loss, but the Angels came from behind to win games 3 (5-4 in 11) and 5 (7-6). The Yankees would close out the ALCS the next game, winning 5-2 in the Bronx. And in the end the better team won: the vaunted Angels offense was shut down by Yankee pitching, averaging collectively .236/.300/.352 for the series.


The Offseason
It was a long offseason for the Angels with more talent leaving town than coming in. Career Angel Chone Figgins left for Seattle, leaving a huge hole at the top of the lineup (more on this later). Designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero left for the Rangers after six season in Anaheim. Vlad, one of the more consistent hitters in the league for a decade, posted the worst offensive numbers of his career, .295/.334/.460, in an injury shortened 100 game campaign. His presence will likely be missed in the Angels lineup, but given concerns about his durability, it was time for the club to let the 35 year old veteran go and pursue a younger, healthier alternative, which is the opposite of what they ended up doing. Erstwhile ace John Lackey likewise left in free agency for the greener confines of Fenway Park. Lackey had been a solid performer in ’09: 11-8, 3.83 ERA, 7.09 K/9, 1.27 WHIP. Relief pitcher Darren Oliver will be joining Vlad in Texas after his best season since the first Clinton administration. Reliever Jose Arredondo signed a minor league deal with the Reds after a disastrous season (2-3, 6.00ERA, 1.56 WHIP, .269 BAA vs. 10-2, 1.62 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .190 BAA in 2008), but will miss the 2010 season following Tommy John surgery on his elbow.
In the club’s only trade of the winter, HGH enthusiast Gary Matthews, Jr. was shipped to the Mets in exchange for pitcher Brian Stokes, ending Matthews disappointing tenure in Anaheim. The backup outfielder signed a 5 year / $50 million deal as a free agent after a stellar 2006 season, but never met the team’s (overly optimistic) expectations. In ’09 he hit .250/.336/.361 in 103 games. Stokes (2-4, 3.97 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, .267 BAA) should at minimum replicate Arredondo’s production from last season, but any more than that is just wishful thinking. The right hander has a 5.02 career ERA with a .302 BAA.
As for other new faces in the clubhouse, the most significant move of the offseason was the acquisition of DH Hideki Matsui. The former Yankee was a solid contributor to the championship club last season, hitting .274/.367/.509 (.349/.462/.674 in the postseason). But he will be 36 in June, and with persistent knee troubles that kept him off of the field defensively for all of 2009, one has to wonder how much longer he can keep it up. Starting pitcher Joel Piniero will find a spot in the rotation after his best season since 2003. And hard throwing former Tiger Fernando Rodney will be a crucial member of the back end of the bullpen.


2010 Roster
The section in which I guess who makes the team out of spring training, and in what role. New additions are in red. Stats are for last season.
Lineup

SS Erick Aybar .312/.353/.423
RF Bobby Abreu .293/.390/.435
CF Torii Hunter .299/.366/.508
DH Hideki Matsui .274/.367/.509
1B Kendry Morales .306/.355/.569
LF Juan Rivera .287/.332/.478
2B Howie Kendrick .291/.334/.444
C Mike Napoli .272/.350/.492
3B Brandon Wood .195/.267/.293, AAA:.293/.353/.557

Bench

2B Maicer Izturis .300/.359/.434
C Jeff Mathis .211/.288/.308
LF Reggie Willits .213/.256/.238
1B/3B Robb Quinlan .243/.275/.339

Rotation
RH Jared Weaver 16-8, 3.75 ERA, 7.42 K/9, 1.24 WHIP
LH Scott Kazmir 10-9, 4.89 ERA, 7.15 K/9, 1.42 WHIP
RH Ervin Santana 8-8, 5.03 ERA, 6.89 K/9, 1.47 WHIP
LH Joe Saunders 16-7, 4.60 ERA, 4.89 K/9, 1.43 WHIP
RH Joel Piniero 15-12, 3.49 ERA, 4.42 K/9, 1.14 WHIP

Bullpen

CL LH Brian Fuentes 1-5, 3.93 ERA, 7,53 K/9, 1.40 WHIP, 48 S, 7 BS
RP RH Fernando Rodney 2-5, 4.40 ERA, 7.30 K/9, 1.47 WHIP, 37 S, 1 BS
RP RH Scot Shields 1-3, 6.62 ERA, 6.11 K/9, 1.75 WHIP
RP RH Jason Bulger 6-1, 3.56 ERA, 9.32 K/9, 1.16 WHIP
RP RH Kevin Jepsen 6-4, 4.94 ERA, 7.90 K/9, 1.56 WHIP
RP RH Brian Stokes 2-4, 3.97 ERA, 5.76 K/9, 1.56 WHIP
RP RH Matt Palmer 11-2, 3.93 ERA, 5.12 K/9, 1.32 WHIP


Prognostications
Throughout his tenure at the helm of the Angels, Mike Scioscia has won baseball games. 900 wins against 720 losses in the regular season. Six postseason appearances in 10 years. One championship. Two Manager of the Year awards (2002 and 2009). In 2010, the Angels will win more games than they will lose. The team that will take the field opening day is weaker than the ’09 edition. It remains to be seen if any diamonds in the rough can be found among the minor leaguers and non-roster invitees to camp – if so they are flying below my radar. The result is a lack of depth, in particular on the bench and in middle relief. If the Angels are going to win the division for the fourth straight season, a few things will need to go their way.
Keys to Success
1) Brandon Wood
By letting Chone Figgins walk, the Angels lost the spark at the top of their lineup. After his 8 seasons, Figgins leaves 1st on the franchise list in career stolen bases (280), 2nd in triples (53), 7th in hits (1045), 7th in runs scored (596), 8th in OBP (.363), 7th in batting average (.291)….The club made no move in the offseason to replace this production. Instead, 24 year old former first round pick Brandon Wood is going to get the chance to play every day.

Wood has been a highly touted prospect, ranked as high as #3 in the country by Baseball America (2006). He has seen some time with the big club in parts of the last three seasons (86 games) hitting .192/.222/.313. In his minor league career, he hit .286/.354/.541, demonstrating both an ability to hit the long ball and from time to time a little speed. He is an average fielder, but with some versatility in the infield: he has seen time in the majors at third base as well as first and short. He is not going to be able to replace Figgins. But if the Angels don’t get at least decent production from Wood, there will be a gaping hole in their lineup.

Age

The Angels have a solid core of established young talent in Weaver (27), Kazmir (26), Santana (27), Saunders (28), Napoli (28), Aybar (26), Kendrick (26), Morales (26). But at the other end of the spectrum, they have an abundance of critical players who are approaching over the hill status. Abreu and Matsui turn 36 this year. Hunter, Shields, and Fuentes will be 35 before season’s end. There is little in the way of a backup plan if they suffer new or recurring injuries (Matsui and Shields have missed significant time in recent years with knee trouble), or if they cannot compete at close to the same level as they have for the bulk of their respective careers.

Santana

Ervin Santana did some time on the DL last season, but when healthy, he took a significant step back.

Santana IP W-L ERA K/9 WHIP
2008 219 16-7 3.49 8.79 1.12
2009 139 2/3 8-8 5.03 6.89 1.47

The Angels, even after losing Lackey, have an excellent rotation on paper. Santana doesn’t need to be an ace, though he showed that kind of potential in 2008. The club will win considerably more games, and if everything else pans out, have a chance at a deeper playoff run, if he can revert to his 2008 form, especially given the weakness in the bullpen.
Which brings us to…

Bullpen

The Angels have a starting pitching staff that will keep them in games. And they have, if healthy, an offense that will put them in a position to win a lot of them. But they need to hold those leads. Three names are critical.

Scot Shields’ 2009 season was a rare blemish on an otherwise sterling career, and ended with season ending knee surgery.

Shields ERA K/9 WHIP
2009 6.62 6.11 1.75
Career 3.03 8.18 1.21

His knee is evidently going to be ready for the season, but its continued health and his reversion to something resembling his previously high level of performance will be crucial to holding the lead in the 7th inning. The rest of the bullpen puts a lot of people on base. A lights out Shields will be essential in late game situations.

Brian Fuentes is still the closer heading into camp, but his 2009 performance is a cause for some trepidation. Fuentes saved a lot of games last year (48), his first in Anaheim. He also blew 7. He was below career average across the board:

Fuentes ERA K/9 WHIP
2009 3.97 7.53 1.4
Career 3.47 9.92 1.26

This makes Fernando Rodney’s role ever more important. Rodney closed ball games for the Tigers last year, converting 37 of 38. He can touch 100 on the radar gun. For his career he’s averaged a 4.28 ERA, 8.56 K/9, 1.42 WHIP. He comes into camp in line to be the set up guy, and like Shields will likely need to put out some fires started by the rest of the pen. If Fuentes continues to be shaky, Rodney will be the one getting the save opportunities.

Without improved production, especially out of the back end of the bullpen, it will be a difficult road for the Angels to qualify for postseason play.

Parting Thoughts
2010 will be less successful for the Angels than was 2009. The offense, at least the aging components, will be less productive, and the pitching should be, barring injury, about a wash.

That being said, looking around the division… Oakland is still rebuilding. Texas always has the offense but never the pitching. They added Rich Harden in the offseason, certainly a guy who can pitch well when healthy, but he has only pitched 150 innings or more once in his career due to injury, and that was in 2004. The Mariners have one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball in Felix Hernandez and newcomer Cliff Lee – 1-2-3 if Erik Bedard (30 starts total in 2 seasons in Seattle) could stay healthy. They picked up Chone Figgins, and I have already extolled the job he does offensively. And they still have Ichiro. But overall, the Angels are fielding the best team in the AL West in 2010, though by a smaller margin than the past couple years.

Prediction: 93-69, 1st place by 3 games over Seattle. A loss in the ALDS to….let’s say Boston.