The Oakland A's

I once caught a preseason game between the Giants and Athletics in the Stadium formally known as the Oakland Alameda County Colosseum. Even for that meaningless game played by two teams destined for the cellars of their respective divisions, the Bay Area fans came out in force, made noise, and turned the now enclosed ball park (thanks for NOTHING, Al Davis). There was even a Rasta Reggie Jackson sitting a few rows in front of me in the leftfield bleachers.

The A's of 2010 do not offer much in the way of championship potential. However, what follows, compliments of Mr. Paul Campbell, is an epically entertaining tour of the Athletics roster. Enjoy!

--TQ


Oakland Athletics 2010 Preview
Baseballbreaksyourheart.com

2009 Recap
The 2009 season was a disappointing one for the A's, as they were effectively out of the playoff hunt by June and stumbled to a 75-87 finish, bringing up the rear of the AL West. Despite the last-place finish, there were reasons for optimism in Oakland, with strong performances from rookie starter Brett Anderson and closer Andrew Bailey, and continued production from OF Ryan Sweeney in his second year in Oakland.

2010 Offseason
The Oakland offseason was headlined by the January 25 signing of free-agent SP Ben Sheets. Sheets, the former Brewer ace, may be the ultimate risk-reward signing of the 2009-2010 offseason. After missing all of 2009 while recovering from elbow surgery, Sheets signed a one-year, $10 million contract (+$2M in innings-based incentives) with Oakland.

While Sheets was the highest-profile move, he was not the only piece the A's brought in to shore up the roster. The A's traded for 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff to bring stability to the hot corner and hopefully provide better production than 2009's Adam Kennedy/Jack Hannahan/Bobby Crosby combination. The team also signed CF Coco Crisp to inexplicably keep the better-fielding Rajai Davis in LF, and Gabe Gross to serve as a fourth outfielder.

In terms of losses, the A's saw the offseason departures of minor-league IF Tommy Everidge (claimed off waivers by SEA), 3B Adam Kennedy (signed with WAS), OFs Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham (via the Kouzmanoff trade), IF Aaron Miles (trade), RP Bobby Casseveh (Rule V draft pick returned to LAA), and prospect OF Grant Desme (calling to Catholic priesthood), so...they are at least keeping it interesting in the East Bay.

2010 Outlook
Offense
The 2010 Oakland Athletics aren't going to light up the scoreboard, and will be hard-pressed to match the 2009 team's 759 runs scored. That team was paced by LF Matt Holliday, dealt at the trade deadline and now of the Cardinals. The 2010 roster will rely on production from Daric Barton, Kurt Suzuki, Jack Cust, Kouzmanoff, and Sweeney to offset a collection of mediocre bats at the remaining spots in the lineup. Even among the A's offensive leaders, the only exceptional bat is DH Cust.

Projected Lineup (2010 projected AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA from CHONE, via Fangraphs)
C-R Kurt Suzuki (275/335/405/327)
1B-L Daric Barton (261/366/413/347)
2B-R Mark Ellis (248/312/386/310)
SS-S Cliff Pennington (243/325/341/304)
3B-R Kevin Kouzmanoff (259/304/431/320)
LF-R Rajai Davis (270/329/375/319)
CF-S Coco Crisp (254/330/370/319)
RF-L Ryan Sweeney (286/350/409/335)
DH-L Jack Cust (235/370/441/360)

Bench
OF-L Gabe Gross (238/332/387/321)
IF-L Eric Chavez (234/315/392/314)
C-R Landon Powell (227/314/399/316)
IF-R Adam Rosales (245/310/395/310)

Defense
In 2009 the A's found themselves in the middle of the pack (6th of 14 teams in the AL) by posting a +5.2 team UZR. Outfield defense was the A's strength, with Ryan Sweeney (+24.0 UZR) and Rajai Davis (+11.3) leading the way. Newcomer Gross, despite little career experience in LF, should bring an able glove to complement Sweeney and Davis and ensure that Oakland's pitchers are safe pitching to contact in the cavernous Coliseum outfield.

Based on recent and career UZR numbers, the A's project to post another year of roughly league-average defense. Davis/Crisp/Sweeney should continue to form a solid defensive outfield, while Gross will do an able Matt Holliday impression as a fourth outfielder, even if he may not come close to his production at the plate.

1B Daric Barton: +5>x>-5
2B Mark Ellis: +10>x>0
SS Cliff Pennington: +5>x>-5
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff: +5>x>-5
LF Rajai Davis: +15>x>+5
CF Coco Crisp: +10>x>0
RF Ryan Sweeney: +20>x>+10

Pitching
The 2009 Oakland rotation was not the picture of inconsistency, with 14 different starters taking the mound over the course of the season, ten of them making at least five starts. Despite their inconsistency, the 14 SPs did serve as a good example of what average looks like, as the Oakland staff posted a collective 4.96 tRA, almost exactly in line with the league average 4.94. The A's were led by 21-year-old rookie Brett Anderson and his 3.58 tRA, good for a 5-WAR season. 25-year-old Dallas Braden (4.12 tRA, 3.1 WAR) was another indicator of success of Billy Beane's perpetual youth movement. Youth was not universally served, as Anderon's cohort, 21-year-old righty Trevor Cahill struggled with his command and had a rough season-long transition to Major League ball. For his troubles, Cahill will be on the outside looking in on the 2010 rotation, as the signing of Ben Sheets and the return of Justin Duchscherer (after missing all of 2009) will bolster the Oakland rotation.

The bullpen, however, was another story. The emergence of rookie closer Andrew Bailey (2.10 tRA, 91:25 K:BB) anchored a solid performance out of the A's relief corps. Even more impressive was Michael Wuertz in a setup role (1.60 tRA, 102:23 K:BB). Repeat performances by the two will go a long way toward Oakland's success in 2010. Unfortunately, both have health concerns, and in recent weeks the front office has brought in free agents Edwar Ramirez and Chad Gaudin as insurance.

Rotation (2010 projected IP, FIP from CHONE, via Fangraphs)
SP-R Ben Sheets (136 IP, 3.68 FIP)
Sheets, who missed all of 2009 recovering from elbow surgery, has dealt with injuries his entire career; but there is no doubt that he has the talent to be a dominant #1 starter when healthy. In 2008, his most recent complete season (198 IP), he was worth nearly 4.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Obviously durability is a major question mark, but so too is the question of how much of the once-ballyhooed talent will remain following another major surgery. Oakland fans will root for Sheets' fastball velocity and breaking ball movement to return to 2008 levels. If this is the case, then Sheets could anchor the rotation. If his elbow issues flare up again, A's fans will share the experience of their divisional rivals the Mariners with Erik Bedard in 2008-2009.

SP-L Dallas Braden (138, 4.26)
Braden was a success last year, posting the Oakland rotation's second-best tRA (4.12) and FIP (3.73), but for the life of me, I can't figure out why. He brings a decent but not exceptional change to complement the fastball and curve in his repertoire, but has always been below-average at inducing groundballs and getting batters to swing and miss at his offerings. He doesn't strike many batters out, and his walk numbers are marginally better than average. Unfortunately for Braden, the only number that jumps out as unusual from his 2009 performance is one that indicates unsustainable good luck on his part: a HR/FB rate of 3.2%. Regression to the mean is an inevitability, making Braden likely to pitch like what he is in 2010: an average back of the rotation starter, but probably not anyone you want to count on to lead the pitching staff.

SP-R Justin Duchscherer (78, 4.17)
Duchscherer is kinda like Ben Sheets. Neither of them pitched in 2009. That's about all the similarities I have, I just wanted to put the words Duchscherer and Sheets in close proximity to one another. Duchscherer is coming off a year filled with shoulder and back injuries, compounded by a bout with clinical depression that I'm sure makes it interesting for him to swap stories with the Mariners' Ian Snell when they cross paths. (More depressing city to live in: Oakland or Pittsburgh? Go.) Duchscherer has impressive stuff despite a lack of overpowering velocity. He mixes his pitches exceptionally well to keep hitters off-balance. In 2008, Duchscherer posted an above-average 3.84 tRA (3.69 FIP), supported by a probably unsustainably low .235 BABIP and 4.6% HR/FB rate. Despite the probability of impending regression, Duchscherer is certainly talented. Assuming he comes back healthy and regains the All-Star form he demonstrated two years ago, Duchscherer will undoubtedly be a key component of the A's success in 2010.

SP-L Brett Anderson (138. 3.92)
Amazingly, Anderson was the less-heralded of the A's two 21-year-old starters coming into 2009. The lefty was considered a top prospect but overshadowed by cohort Trevor Cahilll. Despite the hype, it was Anderson that made the most of his promotion to the big leagues, putting up a 3.58 tRA/3.69 FIP. Anderson will be called on to deliver a repeat performance in 2010. With a fastball in the low-90s and a wickedly effective slider, the only questions regarding Anderson entering his age-22 season are (a) if he can manage the demands of a second year in the majors without a dropoff in production and (b) if the A's can find a third top SP prospect to complement Anderson and a resurgent Cahill to form the third generation of Oakland's Big Three.

SP-L Gio Gonzalez (155, 4.57)
Gonzalez makes heavy use of his impressive curveball (28.9% of all pitches in 2009) to complement an ineffectual fastball and change. He did show significant improvement in 2009 over 2008, with his swinging strike rate increasing from 6.9% to 9.8% (league average: 7.8%). Despite the improvement, Gonzalez was still moderately unlucky, with a below average strand rate (68.8%), and above-average HR/FB rate (10.3%) and BABIP (.355). Gonzalez is still only 24 and has room for improvement, but in 2010 will be a decent back of the rotation starter for the A's.

Bullpen (2010 projected IP, WHIP, FIP from CHONE via Fangraphs)
CL-R Andrew Bailey (62 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 3.81 FIP)
Bailey came in and took over the closing role with aplomb for Oakland in 2010, with the 25 year old converting on 26 of 30 save opportunities and posting a 2.10 tRA (2.56 FIP) while striking out 28% of batters faced. With an average fastball in the mid-90s and above-average command, Bailey should see similar success in his second year in the closing role.

RP-R Mike Wuertz (66, 1.23, 3.49)
RP-R Brad Ziegler (74, 1.26, 3.49)
RP-R Chad Gaudin (152, 1.48, 4.58*)
RP-L Craig Breslow (58, 1.28, 4.18)
RP-R Edwar Ramirez (62, 1.35, 4.37)
RP-L Jerry Blevins (72, 1.22, 3.82)

*CHONE projection as SP

2010 Outlook/Projection
The AL West collectively decided it wanted to get serious about ending the Angels' stranglehold on the division in the 2010 offseason. Signing Ben Sheets was the A's salvo in the rotation-upgrade competition, joining high-reward but injury-prone aces Rich Harden (TEX), Erik Bedard (SEA), and Cliff (--gulp--) Lee (SEA).

The A's lost one of their major offensive contributors when they traded Matt Holliday to St. Louis, and again when Adam Kennedy left for free agency. Even assuming continued production from Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney, bringing in Kevin Kouzmanoff and Coco Crisp is not the answer. The A's are likely not going to score a lot of runs, putting the onus for their season's fate on their ability to prevent runs. The pitching staff, despite its talent, has substantial injury questions: Sheets, exceptional as he may be, is not reliable to perform over a full season. Justin Duchscherer's return to the mound is similarly up in the air. In the bullpen, the dominant Bailey and Wuertz will have to fight through health issues to be effective in 2010. And the team's defense, while absent of any major sieves, is nothing exceptional on balance, despite a collection of defensive prowess in the outfield.

The A's have made substantive, if risky, improvements in 2010. Unfortunately for the Oakland faithful, the results might not be there as the Mariners and Rangers have both made more drastic improvements in the offseason, and even the Angels have mitigated against severe losses and will still be front-runners to win the division. Oakland will see some improvement on the field, but it probably won't come in the standings.

Prediction: 78-84, 4th place in the AL West