Judged by the year-end numbers, the Atlanta Braves' season in 2009 was reasonably successful. Sure, they did not return to the playoffs, but they stuck around in the Wild Card chase into the final week and ultimately finished 86-76. Their pitching staff returned to dominance, finishing fourth in the league in runs allowed per game, and they hit fairly well, good enough for sixth overall. Their Pythagorean Record, based on their runs scored and allowed, shows that the Braves should have finished 90-72, which would likely have resulted in a playoff spot. Over the course of the season, Brian McCann, Yunel Escobar, and Jair Jurrjens continued to show that they are young talents worth building around; Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, and Peter Moylan formed a three-headed monster at the back of the bullpen; Tommy Hanson emerged as a future ace; Martin Prado proved his hitting prowess in a limited call-up the previous year was no fluke; and trade acquisitions Javier Vazquez, Nate McLouth, and Adam LaRoche put up all-star caliber numbers during their time with the Braves.
However, the year-end numbers and overall successes of individual players mask the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde performed of the Braves last year. Their offense was dreadful in the first half, with Jeff Francoeur, Jordan Schafer, and Kelly Johnson hitting a combined .230/.297/.353 and Casey Kotchman and Garrett Anderson barely doing better. GM Frank Wren did a reasonable job addressing these issues in-season, acquiring Nate McLouth and Adam LaRoche to fix the CF and 1B holes, and in-house options Matt Diaz and Martin Prado helped with the OF corners and 2B respectively. Despite these fixes, the damage was already done and a strong second half could not make up for the sub-.500 first half.
This begs the question on why the Braves were in this situation to begin with. Although there was reason for optimism at the beginning of the season, there were plenty of question marks as well. These included whether Francoeur would rebound from a dreadful 2008 season, if Schafer could make the transition to the majors, how much was left in Anderson's tank, and would Kotchman live up to the promise he showed in 2007? The result was the Braves were left hoping that a lot would go right for them, and they had to scramble when nothing panned out.
The Braves could have eliminated a lot of the uncertainty and vastly improved their offense if they had been willing to spend a couple million more last offseason. At the time the Braves were signing Garrett Anderson, two other offensively-gifted, defensively-challenged outfielders were on the market: Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn. Both slugged better and reached base significantly more often, and both were signed relatively cheaply. It is not a stretch to state that if the Braves had signed either one of them, they might have been playing postseason ball last year.
G. Anderson .268/.303/.401, 13 HR, $2.5 million
B. Abreu .293/.390/.435, 15 HR, $5 million
A. Dunn .267/.398/.529, 38 HR, $8 million
It appears what largely kept the Braves from acquiring either player was the need to stay within their budget, a trend becoming a bit more common in the post-Ted Turner years. It may just be skewed memories, but it seems as if the Braves were willing to spend a little bit extra or could make the case to management to go over budget if by doing so they significantly improved their chance at contending for the postseason. They were able to leverage the fact that they played in the eighth largest metropolitan area in the U.S. and had the distinct advantage of playing in one of the largest media markets (due to luck of geography [hundreds of miles from another big league team] and years of TBS reaching a national audience) to consistently have one of the highest payrolls in baseball. This is no more, as they have slowly sunk back to the pack and have had to pass on superior talents to stay within budget. The trend continued this offseason, as the Braves faced a budget crunch and had to trade their best pitcher, Javier Vazquez. All I can say is that I miss the days when the Braves had the flexibility to add or retain the talent they needed to make the postseason, willing to pay a little extra up front to reap millions at the end.
All griping about the Braves’ self-imposed limitations aside, the team is in a good position coming into 2010. The offense should be much improved across the board, a welcome change from 2008 and the first half of 2009. If healthy (a big if when counting on Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus to play 140-150 games), the Braves’ starting eight should range from average to well-above average across the board. The Braves are solid up the middle, with a full season of Nate McLouth in center, Martin Prado and Yunel Escobar forming an underrated duo at second and short respectively, and Brian McCann putting up all-star caliber numbers behind the plate. The corner outfield positions should be drastically improved with Jason Heyward starting in right and Matt Diaz assuming the lion’s share of playing time in left. The key to the Braves’ success in 2010 will be the infield corners, as they need both Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus to return to form (at least to some degree) and stay healthy in order to contend.
Projected Starters:
C B. McCann .281/.349/.486, 21 HR
1B T. Glaus* .264/.366/.472, 16 HR
2B M. Prado .307/.358/.464, 11 HR
3B C. Jones .264/.388/.430, 18 HR
SS Y. Escobar .299/.377/.436, 14 HR
LF M. Diaz .313/.390/.488, 13 HR
CF N. McLouth .256/.352/.436, 20 HR
RF J. Heyward** .323/.408/.555, 17 HR
*Injured in 2009, numbers are averages from 07-09
**Numbers from minor leagues
The Braves bench should be a source of strength in 2010. The team acquired Melky Cabrera in the Javier Vazquez trade, and he’ll be a strong fourth outfielder capable of filling in for any of the starting three and providing excellent defense off the bench. Eric Hinske should provide decent insurance if either Chipper Jones or Troy Glaus miss time in the infield. Omar Infante will likely continue as a super-sub, and David Ross filled in admirably for Brian McCann on his off-days last year and should provide more of the same this year.
Bench Players
C D. Ross .273/.380/.508, 7 HR
4C E. Hinske .242/.348/.432, 8 HR
Util O. Infante .305/.361/.389, 2 HR
OF M. Cabrera .274/.336/.416, 13 HR
The Braves starting rotation was one of the strongest and deepest in the league last year and it should continue to be a strength in 2010. Although they lost Javier Vazquez, who was easily their best pitcher last year, it should be mitigated by a full season of Tommy Hanson and the return of Tim Hudson from Tommy John surgery. Derek Lowe was a relative disappointment last year, eating innings but with a 4.67 ERA, but should rebound closer to his career average ERA. Jair Jurrjens put up another strong season, and though he will likely regress (to the tune of adding about a run to his ERA), he should continue to be another strong pitcher in a deep rotation. Kenshin Kawakami held up fairly well in his Braves debut and is an above average fifth starter.
Starting Pitchers
J. Jurrjens 34 GS, 14-10, 215 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.214 WHIP
D. Lowe 34 GS, 15-10, 194.2 IP, 4.67 ERA, 1.515 WHIP
K. Kawakami 25 GS, 7-12, 156.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.343 WHIP
T. Hanson 21 GS, 11-4, 127.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.183 WHIP
T. Hudson 7 GS, 2-1, 42.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 1.465 WHIP
The bullpen took a bit of a hit this offseason with the departure of the Braves’ two headed closer, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. Between the two aforementioned pitchers and Peter Moylan, Bobby Cox was able to shorten games to six innings. Only Moylan returns, but the addition of Billy Wagner should solidify the closer’s spot and Takashi Saito should help out with seventh and eighth inning duties this year. Kris Medlen performed well after his call-up early last summer and should provide another live arm at the back of the bullpen and in a swing-man’s role. Eric O’Flaherty also pitched well, and earned himself a bigger role in the later innings. Although they lost two of the more dominating relievers that the bullpen has had over the last couple seasons, Wagner and Moylan solidify the back of the pen and Bobby Cox should be capable of mixing and matching the other talents he has on hand to create another strong bullpen in 2010.
Bullpen
CL B. Wagner 1.72 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, 17 G, 14.9 K/9
Set P. Moylan 2.84 ERA, 1.370 WHIP, 87 G, 7.5 K/9
Set T. Saito 2.43 ERA, 1.347 WHIP, 56 G, 8.4 K/9
RP K. Medlen 4.26 ERA, 1.404 WHIP, 37 G, 9.6 K/9
RP E. O'Flaherty 3.04 ERA, 1.243 WHIP, 78 G, 6.2 K/9
The final takeaway: the Braves have an outside shot at winning the NL East and should be considered one of the favorites to win the NL Wild Card. With the exception of the Phillies, the Braves have a deeper lineup than any NL East team and their full rotation, while lacking standout aces like Roy Halladay and Johan Santana, stacks up favorably against others in the division. Barring significant injuries to key talents, the Braves should provide Bobby Cox the ending he deserves – one last trip to the playoffs.
No comments:
Post a Comment