The 2001 World Champions

Alot went wrong for the 2009 incarnation of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Opening Day starter and perennial Cy Young contender Brandon Webb hurt his shoulder a mere four innings into the season and never pitched again in 2009. Lefty reliever Scott Schoeneweis' wife died suddenly in the couple's home in May. Outfielders Conor Jackson and Eric Bynres had miserable campaigns; Jackson caught Valley Fever and missed almost all of the season while Byrnes was injured and just plain awful. Shortstop Stephen Drew saw his power numbers and batting average plummet and Centerfielder Chris Young hit maddeningly poorly, earning himself a demotion to AAA at one point. The pitchers allowed a woeful 4.8 runs a game, good for 14th in the National League.

The Baseball Prospectus postmortem on the 2009 Diamondbacks does not apologize for the team's dissapointing campaign. However the statheads who write for that publication of publications used a new and relatively untried statistic to demonstrate that though the Diamondbacks hurlers were wretchedly awful in 2009, their poor performance does have a possible explanation slightly more nuanced than a simple "THEY SUCK!" Consider the following set of events in an inning, in no particular order. A pitcher strikes out the side, allows a single, a walk, and a homerun. Depending on the order of those events, the inning is either alright (1 run scored), less desirable (2 runs across the plate), or horrific (3 runs home). The Diamondbacks pitchers did not witness sharp rises in other key stats (WHIP, walks, etc) but their ERAs did shoot up. The explanation, Baseball Prospectus argues is "Order of Operations Syndrome." In 2009, Diamondbacks pitchers had the bad fortune of giving up base runners and longballs in the wrong order, resulting in a substantial rise in runs allowed without a huge rise in runners allowed on base. Those big hits tended to come with men on base. Its one explanation.

To the Future...

To attempt to reverse their rotation's fortunes in 2010, the Diamondbacks had an active offseason, trading away top prospect Max Scherzer in order to obtain talented Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, who once Webb returns (fingers crossed) will fill the 3rd and 4th slots in the Arizona rotation. Staff ace Dan Haren, who despite a less-than-stellar 2009, remains one of the top 10 starters in all of baseball and an annual threat to win a Cy Young Award. A rogues gallery (including Rodrigo Lopez!) will vie for the 5th starter slot.

Two offseason additions, Bob Howry and Aaron Heilman are expected to perform heavy labor in steadying the Arizona bullpen. Chad Qualls will return in 2010 as the team's closer, he had passable numbers a season ago but, like many of his brethren who toed the rubber for the D-Backs, Qualls had "order of operations" issues." His WHIP was low, but his ERA was a little on the high (for a closer) side. Joar Gutierrez can regularly hit 95 on a radar gun and posted reasonable numbers in his first full season in the big leagues; he'll fill a middle relief slot.

On offense, the Diamondbacks 2009 effort was a mixed bag of breakout seasons and maddening underachievement.
Third baseman Mark Reynolds struck out 223 times last season, smashing his own single season whiff record. He also connected for 44 homeruns and drove in 102 runs, so the Diamondbacks recently re-signed the slugging 3rd baseman for 3 years and $14.5 million. Justin Upton will turn 23 in August but has already established himself as an elite hitter, batting .300 last season with a gaudy .532 slugging percentage. Catcher Miguel Montero clubbed 16 homers a year ago and batted a cool .294. When he wasn't deathly ill, Conor Jackson batted a meager .182 in 2009, he and Stephen Drew (a paltry .748 OPS), must regain form to provide the lineup with top-to-bottom pop.

Like the bullpen, two new additions will be critical to the offense's success. Kelly Johnson hit a disappointing .224 a season ago in Atlanta. The Diamondbacks would like Johnson to hold down second base, gambling that Johnson can regain his 2007-08 form which saw batting averages around .280 and double-digit homerun totals. New first baseman Adam Laroche plays plus defense but has a checkered past in the batters box. He has an unfortunate penchant for hanging around the Mendoza-line until the All-Star Break, then finishing with a flurry for an overall respectable season. The Diamondbacks would like a full season of competent glove work AND a full season of line drives off of their new First Baseman's bat.

So Where Does This Leave Us?

Lets say Brandon Webb is actually able to return to the rotation in mid-April and regains his old form. Lets say the offensive question marks (Young, Drew, Laroche) pull their weight and Reynolds and Upton build on their 2009 successes. Then lets say that the starting pitchers not named Webb and Haren keep their ERAs and all other statistical measures on the happy side of average. And the bullpen doesn't completely melt down. Then, this is a team that can run with the Dodgers, Giants, Rockies.

If the above pleasant thoughts do not turn into reality, then we can all say in October, "No wonder the _______ (fill in the blank with the NL West winner) won so many games. They got to play several series against the Padres AND the Diamondbacks."