The Ozzie Show

Last year, as a non-follower of the White Sox, I wrote an Ozzie Guillen-centered preview of the 2009 prospects for the Southsiders. I feel very vindicated as a credible all-around fan knowing that what follows, written by our new resident Sox fan, Mr. Chase Davidson, also views the Pale Hose through the lens of "Ozzie Ozzie Ozzie." Enjoy!

--TQ

It is fitting that the 2010 Chicago White Sox will be featured as the centerpiece of the MLB Network’s reality television series “The Club.” Always entertaining manager Ozzie Guillen, coming off a disappointing 3rd place finish in the AL Central Division, has doubled down on the principles of “Ozzie Ball” in an experiment that could either prove genius, solidifying his place among baseball’s great managers, or devolve into a disaster that will ultimately produce at least one vitriolic, profanity laced tirade for the American viewing public. Either way it should be entertaining for the neutral fan.

The renewed emphasis on pitching, defense, and smart base-running, sees the departure of the aging bats of Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye that hit a combined 50 home runs in 2009. They have been replaced with the speed and guile of Juan Pierre and an experimental DH by committee system that will initially be anchored by former Braves star Andruw Jones. The “Ozzie Ball” philosophy also seems to be the catalyst behind the trade of the once promising Josh Fields and Chris Getz to the Royals for the unspectacular, yet solid Mark Teahen.

Ultimately, the White Sox success will depend on the success of what appears on paper to be one the AL’s strongest pitching staffs, anchored by a healthy Jake Peavy and South Side stalwart Mark Buehrle. If young guns Gavin Floyd (famous for beaning TQ in the head) and John Danks take another step forward in their development and Freddy Garcia surgically repaired shoulder holds up, 90+ wins isn’t outside the realm of possibility. However, a Peavy injury or inconsistency from Floyd and Danks could hamper a team that could struggle to score runs at the levels they have in the past.

The bullpen is also a question mark, despite the presence of dominating southpaw setup man Matt Thornton and White Sox all-time saves leader Bobby Jenks. Jenks showed up to Spring Training fitter, but as a consequence appears to have lost significant velocity off of his fastball. To solidify the relief corps, GM Kenny Williams took a $3 million chance on J.J. Putz, who was plagued by injury in his short tenure with the Mets and traded for promising Diamondbacks reliever Tony Pena.

Projected Starters (AVG/OBP/SLG)
C A.J. Pierzynski .300/.331/.425, 13 HR
1B P. Konerko .277/.353/.489, 28 HR
2B G. Beckham .270/.347/.460, 14 HR
3B M. Teahen .271/.325/.408, 12 HR
SS A. Ramirez .277/.333/.389, 15 HR
LF C. Quentin .236/.323/.456, 21 HR
CF J. Pierre .308/.365/.392, 0 HR
RF A. Rios .247/.296/.395, 17 HR
DH A. Jones .214/.323/.459, 17 HR

Bench Players
C T. Flowers .286/.364/.438, 2 HR (numbers while at AAA Charlotte) OR C R. Castro .219/.292/.406, 7 HR
SS O. Vizquel .266/.316/.345, 1 HR
IF J. Nix .224/.308/.408, 12 HR OR IF B. Lillibridge .158/.273/.179, 0 HR (in 95 PA)
1B/DH M. Kotsay .278/.327/.390, 4 HR

The positives: Pierre provides the lead-off and base stealing threat that Ozzie has craved for years. Quentin looks healthy in spring training. Both Pierzynski and Konerko are both coming off strong seasons (a career season in Pierzynski’s case) and are in the final years of their respective contracts. Beckham, despite a slump toward the end of the season, is poised to become the face of the franchise. Ramirez bounced back from an atrocious first half of the season to put up respectable numbers and seemed more comfortable in his switch to shortstop. Rios can’t possibly play any worse than he did in his first 41 games in Chicago last fall.

The negatives: A line-up that lacks power in a hitter’s ballpark. The rotating DH. A shallow bench anchored by a 34 year old DH/1B without power and a 43 year old player-coach.

Starting Pitchers
J. Peavy 16 GS, 9-6, 101 IP, 3.45, 1.12 WHIP
M. Buehrle 33 GS, 13-10, 213 IP, 3.84, 1.25 WHIP
J. Danks 32 GS, 13-11, 200 IP, 3.77, 1.28 WHIP
G. Floyd 30 GS, 11-11, 193 IP, 4.06, 1.23 WHIP
F. Garcia 9 GS, 3-4, 56 IP, 4.34, 1.21 WHIP



Bullpen
CL B. Jenks 3.71 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 52 G, 8.27 K/9
SET J.J. Putz 5.22 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 29 G, 5.83 K/9
SET M. Thornton 2.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 70 G, 10.83 K/9
RP S. Linebrink 4.66 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 57 G, 8.84 K/9
RP T. Pena 3.99 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 72 G, 7.07 K/9
LR D. Hudson 3.37 ERA, 1.34, 6 G

The positives: A healthy Peavy takes the burden off Buehrle as the ace. Floyd despite the dip in W-Ls actually improved his WHIP in 2009. Garcia may prove to be a bargain as a 5th starter if his shoulder holds up. Thornton and Putz provide a formidable set-up duo.

The negatives: A lighter Jenks seems to have lost his fastball and has looked bad in the spring. Floyd and Danks still haven’t proved they can pitch complete seasons. Linebrink has been an expensive bust.

Best case scenario: Quentin stays healthy, Beckham has a breakout season, Pierre gets on base a lot and scores a ton of runs, Rios returns to his 2007-2008 form, Jones hits 25+ home runs (or the team acquires a DH that will), the pitching staff dominates, and Jenks gets his fastball back, leading to 90+ wins, a Central Division title, and a deep run in the playoffs.

Worst case scenario: Quentin gets hurt, Pierre is exposed as an expensive bust, Beckham suffers a sophomore slump, the offense fails to generate runs, Floyd and Danks are inconsistent, Jenks implodes, and neither Putz nor Thornton can step in adequately as closer leaving Ozzie with another sub .500 season and some tough questions about the feasibility of small ball at a hitter’s park.