The Florida Marlins are one of those teams that sportswriters always label as “dangerous.” Unfortunately, that “dangerous” seems to have been stuck in neutral the last few seasons, unable to escalate to “ready to win.” Last year they finished 87-75, sometimes good enough to win the Wild Card or, more often, the NL Central. Unfortunately, the play in the NL East and had to settle for 2nd place. Are the Marlins ready to win this season? According to most prognosticators, probably not. The Braves have gotten more hype as the threat to the Phillies in the NL East and common opinion is that the Wild Card will come out of the NL West. But don’t overlook the Marlins.
After all, they do have the best player in baseball not named Albert Pujols. It’s amazing to think that the Red Sox traded away Hanley Ramirez. Granted, they got Josh Beckett and the 2007 World Series title, but Ramirez is so special a talent that what Boston got in return may not have been enough. Last year Ramirez put up an insane .342 BA/.410 OBP/.543 SLG/.954 OPS, in addition to 24 home runs and 27 stolen bases (which were down years for him). Unlike the Padres and Adrian Gonzalez though, Ramirez is no one man show.
Leading the way, literally and figuratively, is the reigning Rookie of the Year, Chris Coghlan. His .321 BA was good for 6th in the NL (note, all of the NL, not just among rookies), and after the All-Star break, Coghlan led all major leaguers in batting average (.372) and hits (113). CF Cameron Maybin may have only hit .250 with disappointing numbers in 2009, however his bright future is not debated. After all, he was one of the centerpieces of the Miguel Cabrera trade (note that Dontrelle Willis is barely even mentioning as a side note in that trade). Also, both Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu offer power alternatives from the infield. Then there’s also speedster Emilio Bonifacio on the bench. Sure, his 2009 flamed out after the first three weeks, but he still has game-changing speed.
The Marlins rotation is led by Cy Young candidate Josh Johnson, who won 15 games in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. With a WHIP of 1.16 and 119 strikeouts in ‘09, it’s not surprise that Johnson has the stuff to post a career ERA of 3.40. Tom Verducci warns that Johnson’s rapid increase in innings pitched last year could lead to injuries, but I expect Johnson to escape the dreaded Verducci effect. Behind Johnson are Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez (who once threw a no hitter), and talented if enigmatic youngster Chris Volstad. They may not be as reliable a top 4 that of the Yankees, however, they are “dangerous”, as sportswriters would say. I’m not sure any team would want to face that rotation in one last series with their seasons on the line.
Once again, I don’t know enough about the Marlins bullpen to adequately critique it. Hayden Penn, once a touted prospect, has a lifetime ERA close to 9. Dan Meyer never amounted to much until posting a 3.09 ERA last season, but can he build on it? Despite his great 2009, Brian Sanches was once released by both the Phillies and Nationals. Is he a fluke or did those teams make poor judgment calls? Leo Nunez at closer put up some pretty impressive numbers – he held opposing hitters to a .230 average and also put up 26 saves – but he also blew 7 saves, a number approaching Brad Lidge territory. Like most bullpens, there seem to be as many if not more questions than answers.
So what Marlins team will we see this season? They will most certainly be “dangerous.” The lineup has just enough power behind Hanley Ramirez and is the rotation is competent enough behind Josh Johnson that no one would be surprised if the Marlins challenge for a playoff spot. Could everything fall apart with the right combination of injuries? Sure. But even in that case, they’d still be better than the Nationals.
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