The 2005 NL Champs

Mark Smith returns this year with another excellent analysis of the Houston Astros. I will resist the temptation to make unnecessary references here to the 2007 Miguel Tejada trade, for which all of Baltimore remains grateful.

Shoot. Just mentioned it. Sorry Mark.
--TQ

The past decade for Houston was an up and down one to say the least. The Astros started off the decade with their worst season in the Drayton McLane era going 72-90. In the middle of the decade the franchise had some of the best years in franchise history. They won a playoff series for the first time in 2004 and in 2005 won their first National League pennant and played in their first World Series. Since that magical run in 2005, the path the Astros have taken has been a downhill one. During the last year of the decade the Astros went 74-88. There were so many low points in 2009 that it is hard to pick the lowest. Some of them would be: then manager Cecil Cooper predicts 90 wins, Roy Oswalt only winning 8 games and having an ERA over 4, Berkman having one of the worst seasons of his career, being completely out of the race at the trade deadline and not trading for the future, and finally Cecil Cooper getting fired. All of those things are in the past however, and 2010 looks to be a much better year for the Good Guys from Houston.

Coaching
The biggest offseason move Houston made was hiring their 5th field manager in the last 6 years. Some of the notable candidates were Phil Garner, Bob Melvin, Ned Yost, and Manny Acta. The Astros first choice was Manny Acta but he demanded a 3 year contract. Acta had begun his coaching career in the Astros farm system and played and had said managing the Astros was his dream job. Drayton refused to move from a 2 year deal with a club option to 3 years guaranteed and as a result, Manny signed with Cleveland. After this gaffe that became very public, the Astros went in to spin control and hired Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills within a few days. Mills has been highly recommended by Terry Francona and has potential to be a great manager. The clubhouse in Houston became toxic last season with Cecil Cooper in charge and many people are hoping Mills brings a winning atmosphere with him from Fenway.
What might be the second most important hire of the offseason was the hiring of Brad Arnsberg as the pitching coach from the Blue Jays. Arnsberg was the pitching coach in Toronto from 2005 through 2009, during which the Blue Jays ranked second in the league with a team ERA of 3.98. Last year many of the pitchers had little to no confidence in pitching coach Dewey Robinson. It is not surprising that Roy Oswalt had the worst season of his career last year. Arnsberg comes in much respected and has worked with many ace pitchers including Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, and Roy Halladay. Having a competent, respected pitching coach could go a long way in determining how well the Astros do this year.

Catcher
One of the few positions where the Astros are working in some youth is at catcher. One of the players battling for the starting job is current top prospect and former first round draft pick Jason Castro. The other candidate for the job is former top prospect J.R. Towles. Towles burst onto the scene back in 2007 as a September call up and had an 8 RBI game against the Cardinals and all Astros fans thought we finally had a catcher who would hit for the first time since Craig Biggio was a catcher back in 1991. Since that magical night in St. Louis, Towles has a batting average of .149. Astros management is giving Castro every opportunity to start the season in Houston, but if he is deemed not ready, he will return to AAA and surely be called upon later in the year. Penciled in as the backup Humberto Quintero. He is a solid defensive catcher who will not hit much, but won’t play much either.

First Base
Lance Berman is one of the top first basemen in baseball about every other year. Many Astros fans have noticed that over Lance Berkman’s career that he is usually exceptional every even numbered year, and an above average player in odd numbered years. Since the beginning of his career in 1999, his batting average is .292 in odd numbered years, as opposed to batting .307 in even numbered years. He has averaged about 28 home runs in odd numbered years compared to 33 in even numbered years. In odd numbered years he averages 96 RBI’s and in even numbered years he averages 119. Because this year is 2010 Astros fans are hoping that the Big Puma has his typical even numbered year.

Second Base
Kaz Matsui is supposed to be the Astros starting second basemen this year. Last year Matsui set a career high in games played with 132. When healthy, Matusi can be a productive player, unfortunately Kaz is never healthy. Out of 324 potential games as an Astros, Matsui has only played 228 of them. Luckily the Astros have veteran utility men Geoff Blum and Jeff Keppinger to fill in when the fragile Kaz gets hurt. The key to being productive at second though is Kaz staying healthy, which is unlikely. When healthy he is a potential game changer in the number 2 hole.

Third Base
One of the key signings of the Astros this offseason was former Phillies (no surprise) third baseman Pedro Feliz. Feliz is known throughout the game as one of the top defenders at the hot corner. One of the ways the Astros looked to improve the team this offseason was by upgrading the defense. By installing Feliz as the third basemen and rookie Tommy Manzella at shortstop the left side of the infield should be one of the best defensive left sides in the game. While Feliz is not a slugger, he has consistently driven in about 75-80 runs throughout his career. Many think his home run totals will go up as a result of playing at hitter friendly Minute Maid Park.

Shortstop
Another key defensive upgrade for the Astros this offseason was deciding to let Miguel Tejada walk as a free agent and install the slick fielding Tommy Manzella as the starting shortstop. While Manzella is not expected to be anything close to the hitter of Tejada, he is expected to be far better defensively. Astros management has often compared Manzella’s work with the glove to former Astro Adam Everett. Manzella has been ready for the majors defensively for years; however his hitting leaves some doubt as to whether he will be able to stick in The Bigs. Even though technically he is replacing All Star shortstop Miguel Tejada, it can be seen as he is replacing Geoff Blum in the infield. Coupled with the signing of Pedro Feliz, Astros management is hoping that Feliz can make up for the runs that Miggy was responsible for, and let Manzella tighten up the defense up the middle.

Outfield
Last year, one of the few bright spots for the Astros was the outfield. Leftfielder Carlos Lee had a down year by his standards but still managed to drive in 100 runs, bat .300, and hit over 25 home runs. Hunter Pence took a step forward in his development and became an All Star last year. Michael Bourn went from being one of the worst hitters in baseball in 2008 to being the Astros team MVP in 2009. Bourn also won a Gold Glove and led the National League with 61 stolen bases. If Lee can return to top for and hit around 35 home runs and drive in his usual 120 RBI’s the Astros will be in good shape. Bourn needs to continue in his progression as a game changer at the top of the line up, and Hunter Pence needs to continue to improve at the rate he is currently. This is by far the strongest position on the team and the Astros are expecting a lot of their offensive output to come from these 3 key players. Defensively, the outfield is strong. Bourn has excellent range and covers the expansive centerfield at Minute Maid and is also responsible for a lot of left field as well because El Caballo is not known as a burner in left. In right field Hunter Pence has good range and cannon for an arm. Last year he led all outfielders in assists with 16. If this group can improve even slightly from last year, it will be a great boost to a team that has a few questions on how to score runs. Bourn needs to continue to get on base to give the big boys (Berkman, Lee, and Pence) a chance to drive in runs.

Bench
The Astros bench is just about average. Humberto Quintero will be the back up catcher. He is very solid defensively, but does not hit much. Hopefully, one of the two young catchers can step up and take hold of the position so Q does not have to play too much. The backup infielders will be the switch hitting Geoff Blum and the right handed Jeff Keppinger. Both of these guys are very good to have because they can both play all positions in the infield. Keppinger is also exceptional against lefties so if Kaz or Manzella falter at all, expect Keppinger to pick up their at bats against lefties. The backup outfielders are not known at this point. Jason Michaels is expected to be one and the other will either be Cory Sullivan or Jason Bourgeois. None of the backup outfielders are exceptional, but it could be much worse.

Starting Rotation
Returning as the ace of the staff will be Roy Oswalt. Last year he had a very poor season, but a lot of it was attributed to a back issue that caused numbness in his arm and hands. During the offseason Roy had a very intense workout program to strengthen the muscles in his back and is said to have overcome the issues so far this spring. After his breakout season last year, the Astros are expecting big things out of Wandy Rodriguez. Wandy has steadily improved every season he has been in the majors, and last year took huge steps forward. He led the Astros in wins, innings pitched, and era. All of these stats were career best numbers. Filling the number three slot in the rotation is former Phillies starter and closer (no surprise here) Brett Myers. Myers has been a very good pitcher in his career even though he has been dealing with some injuries the past few years. If Brett can pitch up to his capabilities and stay healthy, the top of the Astros rotation looks very strong. When it comes to the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation what a difference a year can make. Last year the Astros had former aces Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz as the favorites for these two spots. This year young pitchers Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino are the favorites for these slots. Bud came up in July last year and started off very well. After about 4 or 5 starts though the league caught up to him and he had a rough patch. The good news though is that after the league figured him out he went to work and ended the year very strong. Felipe has the kind of arm that makes big league scouts drool He can throw his fastball as high as 102 mph and has a very good slider. The only problem with Felipe is that he does not know where his pitches are going. One of pitching Coach Brad Arnsberg’s most important tasks this spring is to try and make Paulino a successful major league pitcher and not just a thrower. Last year Felipe showed great potential in some games. One that sticks out was his start against Detroit last year. Felipe pitched seven innings, allowed only 3 hits, and struck out nine Tigers. This game showed how good Paulino can be and if he can figure out how to perform even close to this he could be a key to a successful season. Overall this rotation is not one of the best in the game by a long shot. However, they have potentially a rotation that is good enough to keep them in the game and make contending a possibility, albeit a small one.

Bullpen
The greatest strength of the Astros last season was their bullpen. They had shutdown closer Jose Valverde for the 9th inning and set up man LaTroy Hawkins to pitch the 8th. After losing both of these key bullpen pieces to free agency they were replaced by Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom respectively. Even though Lyon and Lindstrom are not expected to be as dominant as Hawkins and Valverde, they should fill in nicely. Lyon had an exceptional year last year as a set up man for the tigers and had 26 saves as the closer for the Diamondbacks in 2008. Lindstrom has a power arm but has trouble controlling his pitches. If he can learn to harness his 100 mph fastball he could be a very good closer at the back end of the bullpen. Right now there is no clear cut favorite for the closer position, but unfortunately Lyon has been limited so far this spring. He had a shoulder cyst drained in February and has not yet thrown in a game. This could give Lindstrom a chance to impress the staff, but right now it is still an open competition. The middle relief has potential to be solid. Some of the pitchers expected to be in the bullpen are waiver claims Alberto Arias and Jeff Fulchino who excelled last year, youngsters in Sammy Gervacio and Wesley who had good runs late in the year, and veterans Brian Moehler and Chris Sampson. This group has a good mix of youth excitement and veteran leadership. This mix could provide an above average bullpen that has the potential to pitch a lot of innings if the starters falter.

Final Thoughts
On paper this is the best team the Astros have had since their World Series team back in 2005. Even though the past few years have been rough for Astros fans, things are looking up. After many years of building with veterans through free agency, the team is finally integrating youth. While the NL Central has been down the past few years, this team has a slight chance of contention. Every team in the division has an Achilles heel, but the Astros could contend if all the cards fall in the right place. There are a lot of ifs though. If Oswalt, Berkman, and Lee can bounce back, If Wandy can continue to improve and pitch at least as good as last year just to name a few, and maybe the most important If the young pitchers can pitch to their potential the Astros could contend this year. This fan’s projection is a record of 82-80 with a 3rd place finish in the division behind St. Louis and Chicago.

Projected Lineup (Last year’s stats)
CF Michael Bourn, .285 AVG, 97 R, 61 SB
2B Kazuo Matsui, .250 AVG, 56 R, 19 SB
1B Lance Berkman , .274 AVG, 25 HR, 80 RBI
LF Carlos Lee, .300 AVG, 26 HR, 102 RBI
RF Hunter Pence, .282 AVG, 25 HR, 72 RBI
3B Pedro Feliz, .266 AVG, 12 HR, 82 RBI
C Jason Castro*, .300 AVG, 10 HR, 73 RBI
SS Tommy Manzella**, .289, 9 HR, 56 RBI
*Statistics combined from A and AA
**Statistics from AAA

Starting Rotation
Roy Oswalt, 8-6, 4.12 ERA, 181.1 IP
Wandy Rodriguez, 14-12, 3.02, 205.2 IP
Brett Myers, 4-3, 4.84 ERA, 70.2 IP
Bud Norris6-3, 4.53 ERA, 55.2 IP
Felipe Paulino, 3-11, 6.27 ERA, 97.2 IP

Bullpen
Matt Lindstrom, 54 G, 5.89 ERA, 15/17 SV
Brandon Lyon, 65 G, 2.86 ERA, 3/6 SV
Sammy Gervacio, 29 G, 21.0 IP, 2.14 ERA
Jeff Fulchino, 61 G, 82.0 IP, 3.40 ERA
Alberto Arias, 42 G, 45.2 IP, 3.35 ERA
Wesley Wright, 49 G, 44.2 IP, 5.44 ERA
Chris Sampson, 49 G, 55.1 IP, 5.04 ERA