The Cincinnati Reds...And an Important Announcement

The important announcement comes first.

Tonight, at 7:00, the editors of Baseball Prospectus will be speaking at Politics & Prose Bookstore on Connecticut Ave in DC. For anyone in the area, its an excellent chance to get some insights into the book which annually provides so much insight into the greatest game ever invented. Heres the website for the event.

And now for the Cincinnati Reds. Thanks to Dmitry Zakharov for providing an honest look into the mind of a Reds fan as the 2010 season approaches. This is a quick read and a good read. Enjoy!
--TQ



In their NL Central roundup on Baseball Tonight this week, ESPN’s stable of pundits touched on various dynamics affecting teams, from the presence of Mark McGwire as Cardinals hitting coach to the Cubs’ attempt to get their scoring groove back (from 707 total runs, where it was last season, to the 855 they rung up in ’08). When the time came to talk about the Reds, however, the commentary revolved around a single player, Cuban defector/pitching Messiah Aroldis Chapman. For once, though, this was not simply an instance of The Worldwide Leader in Story over Substance taking the most recent and prominent news item and harping on it to the detriment of more important developments. In the collective psychology of Reds fans, and maybe the team as well, the arrival on the scene of a superstar-in-the-making really does overshadow team-centric developments. Whether Chris Dickerson will be able to take the starting centerfield spot back from Drew Stubbs, or whether first baseman Joey Votto can continue to make progress in his battle with depression, are important issues, to be sure. But how can they compare with the arrival of baseball’s LeBron?

Well, that’s certainly an exaggeration, though the mentality isn’t exactly unique to Cincinnati – how many column inches has the “grasping desperately for a functional business model” Washington Post spent on Stephen Strasburg? In fact, I would argue that this sort of thinking is endemic to teams that have been bad for a long time (the Reds consecutive losing seasons streak now sits at nine), teams where the joys of being a fan are more likely to come from individual breakthroughs than overall team performance. For followers of the Redlegs, “Chappy” is merely this year’s version of Homer Bailey, the previous strong-armed savior of the franchise, whose first full season in the majors last year was decidedly underwhelming (8-5 with a 4.53 ERA) but still an improvement over his disastrous 2008 stint (0-6, 7.93 ERA).

Meanwhile, longtime Reds ace Aaron Harang has been working on adjusting his mechanics with new pitching coach Bryan Price. The money quote from Coach Price: “He was actually detached from the rubber.” That’s what she said. For his efforts, Harang was rewarded by having Dusty Baker announce that he was not guaranteed to start on Opening Day…only to contradict himself and name Harang the starter a few weeks later. Harang, it should be noted, went 6-14 last season and 6-17 the year before. He is also the longest-tenured and highest paid Red, having made $14 million for the 2009 campaign. Meanwhile, Johnny Cueto, who will be second in the rotation to start the season, earned a salary of $418,000 last year. When the pitchers go out to dinner, who do you think picks up the check?

But how will the team do overall? Well, I certainly won’t discount the possibility of a Great Red Leap Forward that results in them seizing the NL Central. However, as I wrote last year, Reds fans would be happy with just some incremental progress, given the relative youth of the team and the much-upgraded nature of the farm system. A winning season might be nice for a change, as would a reason to actually care about games past the Fourth of July. Will it happen? Some of the heavy-duty statistical analyses I’ve seen don’t look particularly promising. Playing in the home-run factory that is the Reds’ home stadium is a wildcard that confounds projections, though. For most pitchers on most teams, multiple home-run games are a nightmare than can shatter their confidence and haunt their dreams. For Cincy starters (and even, gulp, a few relievers), it is an occupational hazard that comes with the territory. How does one account for that mental minefield?

In sum: DO put Jay Bruce on your fantasy team. DON’T put any money on the Reds (or against them, either, unless they’re facing Roy Oswalt). DO expect a win total somewhere from the mid-70s to, at best, the mid-to-high 80s. But DON’T count them out of the playoffs quite yet.

Oh, and most importantly: DON’T listen to anything I have to say. Cheers!