The Sawx

Chris George has done it again. It truly is a shame that he roots for the same team as do all of those pink hat wearing, Varitek loving, baseball ignorant Neanderthals who have made many baseball devotees strongly dislike the Red Sox. Its because of all of those bad fans that someone like Chris will have to fill out all sorts of cumbersome paperwork in order to get into heaven once St Peter finds out he's a Sox fan.

Kidding.

Almost.
--TQ

2009 in Review

On these pixels last March, I made the following prediction: 98-64, AL East Champions, World Series Champions. The Sox fell a little short of that, but put together what to a rational observer was an excellent season: 95-67, good enough for third best in the majors and a playoff bid, but only second best in the division, 8 games behind the Yankees. They were third in runs scored (872) and third in runs allowed (736). The team had six all-stars: Bay, Beckett, Papelbon, Wakefield, Youkilis, Pedroia. But this was a team that started strong, only to fizzle when it counted: 47-30 April, May, June; 48-37 the rest of the way to get passed by the surging Yankees. 56-25 at Fenway. 39-42 elsewhere.

Offensively, the club suffered from some lingering injuries, and stalwarts of the 2004 and 2007 championship clubs simply showed the effects of age. 33 year old David Ortiz had an abysmal first couple months before getting dropped in the order. He would improve as the season went on, but 2009 was his worst season in Boston. 37 year old catcher Jason Varitek, having established the past couple years that his glory days were long past, finally proved that he is incapable of contributing every day. Shortstop was a veritable game of musical chairs. Jed Lowrie (18 starts) broke camp as the starter, but an ice cold bat turned out to be the result of a wrist injury and he spent most of the year on the DL. Julio Lugo (27 starts) ultimately hit better than he had in his previous seasons in Boston (.284/.352/.367 in 37 games). But he was a disaster defensively, and he would be run out of town, traded to St. Louis for a minor league outfielder and cash. Nick Green, whose previous big league appearance had come with Seattle in 2007, was the starter for much of the year (74 starts). He was a decent enough hitter early on, but couldn’t hit his weight after the break, finishing at .236/.303/.366. He did however have an unparalleled knack for the untimely yet spectacular error and led the club in multi-error games. The Sox turned to erstwhile shortstop (2006) Alex Gonzalez, arriving mid-August via trade from the Reds. In 44 games, he brought a modest measure of competence back to the position, both offensively (.284/.316/.453) and with his always stellar glove.

But there were some bright spots too. The acquisition of Victor Martinez from the firesale-ing Indians greatly solidified the catcher position down the stretch, as he hit .336/.405/.507 in 56 games. Jason Bay shined in his first full season in the Fens (.267/.384/.537). Mike Lowell was plagued by injury, but managed to hit .290/.337/.474 in 119 games. And the Sox triumvirate of young homegrown talent – Youkilis (.305/.413/.548), Pedroia (.296/.371/.447, 20 SB), Ellsbury (.301/.355/.415, league leading and franchise record 70 SB).

Pitching wise, it was a tale of extremes. The bullpen was, for the most part, consistently very good, anchored by closer Jonathan Papelbon and fireballing rookie Daniel Bard. Beckett and Lester formed a formidable tandem at the top of the rotation. 42 year old Tim Wakefield started 11-3 and made his first all-star game, only to have a back injury shut him down. Filling in, Clay Buchholz showed signs that his career was back on track. But the back end of the rotation was a mess. Daisuke Matsuzaka was plagued by injuries predating and aggravated by the World Baseball Classic, and started the season 1-5 through 8 starts with an eye popping 8.23 ERA and 2.2 WHIP. He was sharp in 4 late season starts (3-1, 2.22 ERA, 1.397 WHIP), but injury concerns would linger. Brad Penny (7-8, 5.61 ERA, 1.534 WHIP) made it 24 starts before getting released in August amidst a stretch of excruciating ineffectiveness. John Smoltz had hopes of a comeback, but they remained just that: 8 starts, 2-5, 8.32 ERA, 1.7 WHIP, a shellacking at the hands of the Nationals, and one unconditional release. Paul Byrd (6 starts, 1-3, 5.82 ERA, 1.706 WHIP), and Junichi Tazawa (4 starts, 2-3, 7.46 ERA, 2.053 WHIP) were also tried, and failed to stabilize the backend of the rotation.

I have already addressed the ’09 postseason in painful detail, in my earlier Angels preview. They were beaten decisively by a better team; no further autopsy is warranted.


Offseason

In contrast to the previous winter, where the biggest moves were the ones not made, the ‘09-‘10 offseason saw a flurry of activity and great strides forward. A big free agent splash came in December as former Angels ace John Lackey and CF Mike Cameron signed with Boston for 5 and 2 years, respectively. Jason Bay declined the Sox offer (it would later come out that the club had concerns about his knees going forward), and is now the latest in Omar Minaya’s stable of overpriced, aging Mets. Backup OF Jeremy Hermida arrived via trade from the Marlins in exchange for 2 prospects. Brad Mills departed after six seasons as Terry Francona’s bench coach to manage in Houston. Free agent SS Marco Scutaro came to town to replace SS Alex Gonzalez, who left as a free agent. RP Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner also left in free agency, and are now Braves. Backup 1B Casey Kotchman was traded to Seattle for the versatile Bill Hall, and 3B Adrian Beltre was signed to a 1 year deal. Mike Lowell was traded to Texas for a catching prospect, but the deal fell through, and instead he spent his offseason rehabbing a new injury, in this case, surgery on his right thumb ligaments.


2010 Red Sox

All stats are for the complete 2009 season.

Lineup

LF Jacoby Ellsbury .301/.355/.415, 70 SB
2B Dustin Pedroia .296/.371/.447, 20 SB
C Victor Martinez .303/.381/.480, 1 SB
1B Kevin Youkilis .305/.413/.548, 7 SB
DH David Ortiz .238/.332/.462
RF JD Drew .279/.392/.522, 2 SB
CF Mike Cameron .250/.342/.452, 7 SB
3B Adrian Beltre .265/.304/.379, 13 SB
SS Marco Scutaro .282/.379/.409, 14 SB

Bench

C Jason Varitek .209/.313/.390
3B Mike Lowell .290/.337/.474, 2 SB
SS Jed Lowrie .147/.211/.265
INF/OF Bill Hall .201/.258/.338, 2 SB
OF Jeremy Hermida .259/.348/.392, 5 SB

Rotation

RH Josh Beckett 17-6, 3.86 ERA, 1.192 WHIP, 8.4 K/9
LH Jon Lester 15-8, 3.41 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, 10.0 K/9
RH John Lackey 11-8, 3.83 ERA, 1.270 WHIP, 7.1 K/9
RH Tim Wakefield 11-5, 4.58 ERA, 1.442 WHIP, 5.0 K/9
RH Daisuke Matsuzaka 4-6, 5.76 ERA, 1.871 WHIP, 8.2 K/9

Bullpen

CL RH Jonathan Papelbon 1-1, 1.85 ERA, 1.147 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 38 S, 3 BS
SU RH Daniel Bard 2-2, 3.65 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, 11.5 K/9
MR RH Ramon Ramirez 7-4, 2.84 ERA, 1.335 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
MR LH Hideki Okajima 6-0, 3.39 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 7.8 K/9
MR RH Manny Delcarmen 5-2, 4.53 ERA, 1.642 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
LR/SP RH Clay Buchholz 7-4, 4.21 ERA, 1.380 WHIP, 6.7 K/9


Thoughts, Prognostications, and Bold Predictions

On paper this is the best Red Sox team since 2007. It is a team built for a deep playoff run with one of the best rotations in baseball with and a solid bullpen built around, last October’s ALDS not withstanding, one of the preeminent closers in the game. And while there is young talent, even the young guys have been to the promised land already, and along with a solid core of consummately professional veterans, they will keep their composure and not get distracted by matters favored by the chattering classes, such as whether or not contract extensions are going to happen for Beckett and Papelbon.

Offensively there are questions of health and efficacy behind the top four of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Martinez, and Youkilis – they can be counted on to put together an all-star caliber effort year in and year out. David Ortiz remains the biggest question among them. He turns 34 this year, so a return to his 2003-2007 pre-injury prime is wishful thinking. But whether it is ’09 first half (.222/.317/.416) or ’09 second half (.258/.350/.516) Papi that shows up in 2010 is crucial to the club’s success. Someone needs to protect Youk in the lineup, and a healthy Ortiz is still the best candidate to do so. JD Drew never turned into the next Mickey Mantle as a scout projected, though he has always been a solid hitter in his own right when healthy, but that is the key: he has only played 140 games or more 3 times in his decade plus in the majors. Cameron and Beltre represent gambles that should pay off. Cameron is certainly an upgrade over Bay defensively, and while he is unlikely to match Bay’s 2009 production in his advancing years, something resembling a career average performance is essential (.250/.340/.452) – someone needs to drive in runs from the bottom of the lineup. Beltre comes as a bargain after a weak 2009 at the plate, in which he missed some time after taking a ground ball to the unprotected testicles. But healthy again, and still only 30, look for him to perform at or above his career averages (.270/.325/.453), aided by that giant wall in left. Scutaro is a better hitter than anyone that took the field for this club at short in 2009. In short: don’t count me among those panicking. This club will hit.

The club’s greatest strength is its depth, on both sides of the ball. Two of last year’s starters will come off the bench in 2010. While Varitek and Lowell may be past their primes, and in Lowell’s case, hobbled by injury in recent years, they remain excellent clubhouse presences who should produce in limited time. Jed Lowrie still could be the shortstop of the future if his wrist has healed completely and he can pick up where he left off in his promising rookie year (2008). Jeremy Hermida had been a starter in Florida, but should be an excellent addition to this club as a lefty bat off the bench and backing up at the corner outfield spots. Bill Hall has seen time at 2B, 3B, SS, and all three outfield positions, making him a versatile defensive replacement. He won’t replicate the 35 homers he had for Milwaukee in 2006, but he is a good reclamation project offensively for the coaching staff, and hopefully they can get some hits out of him.

And let’s not forget the “problem” of having six starting pitchers. Last year’s injury problems and struggles to find consistent pitching out of the back of the rotation highlight the imperative need for depth here. Beckett/Lester/Lackey are set at the top, forming a 1A/1B/1C combo that is unrivaled. That leaves Wakefield, Matsuzaka, and Buchholz for 2 spots. Manager Terry Francona has already said that it will be a 4 man rotation for the first few weeks, allowing Matsuzaka to recover from back problems that have slowed him this spring. Wakefield will be that fourth starter, at least as long as he stays healthy. He has recovered nicely from last year’s back surgery, and with a new 2 year deal (replacing his prior contract with the infinite one year team options), he will have a chance to secure his place in team history. Wakefield is already 1st on the franchise list in games started (388). He has 189 wins in his career – 175 in Boston – leaving him 17 wins shy of the franchise record (192), held by two pitchers of some repute: Denton True “Cy” Young and Roger Clemens. Healthy, he will break that record before his contract is up. So Buchholz starts the year in the bullpen in lieu of the rubber armed knuckleballer, but the odds of injury occurring to someone being what they are, he will undoubtedly have the opportunity to start some games before the year is over.

In conclusion, an excellent rotation and bullpen will allow this club to win games without out slugging everybody, but this club has the potential to score a lot of runs. This is the deepest roster for a Boston team in a long time, and this depth will allow the club to persevere through inevitable injuries and age related production decline from some formerly key veterans to make a run deep into October.

Baseball Prospectus has the Sox winning the East with a 95-67 record, the same win total they had in 2009. The rotation is better with the addition of Lackey, return to health of Wakefield and Matsuzaka, and subtraction of Penny, Smoltz, et al. A full season of Victor Martinez will lead to greater production at catcher than was had with Varitek starting most of ’09. Cameron + Scutaro > Bay + Green/Lugo/Gonzalez offensively and defensively. And Beltre brings gold glove caliber defense as the everyday third baseman with a big offensive upside. So my expectations are a little higher. My not quite entirely objective assessment for the 2010 Boston Red Sox: 100-62, 1st place AL East, World Series Champions. Hope springs eternal.

And now, I end my ramblings with parting thoughts, courtesy of Adrian Beltre: “It was the first time I was hit. They say I’m crazy not to wear the cup. But I say, if the ball’s going to hit me there every 11 ½ years, I’ll take my chances.”


Final comment from TQ. I just couldn't resist. Adrian Beltre, This Rolling Rock is for you...

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