For Brooklyn Dodger fans there was the seemingly endless chorus of "wait til next year." And, eventually, the Dodgers broke through and won a World Series. For Red Sox fans (of the non-"pink hat" variety) there were several generations of belief that the end to the suffering was over, then dashed hopes, then more wandering in the desert. But, the Red Sox too were able to break through the futility and win a world title.
Where's that kid from Angels in the Outfield who reminded us all that "It Could Happen"?
Which brings us to the matter of the 2010 Cubs. In simple terms, the Cubs could win this year's World Series. They could end 102 years of futility. They could have one of baseball's better pitching staffs, one of its more potent offenses, one of its most impressive rosters. Unlike in Angels in the Outfield when it took divine intervention to compensate for the complete absence of talent on the team's roster, the Cubs are not in need of some sort of miracle to produce wine out of a roster filled with water.
No, the grand "if" for the 2010 Cubs is this: They can contend for a pennant and a World Series if the men on their roster play to the levels which they have previously demonstrated are within their reach, keep their heads about them, and stay off of the Disabled List. If those three items constitute a miracle, then, yes, the 2010 Chicago Cubs need a miracle.
I'd argue, however, that any team who wins the World Series stands in need of that very miracle.
2009 and the Offseason
The 2009 incarnation of the Chicago Cubs spent a grand total of 17 days in first place and eventually finished in second place with an 83-79 record. The consensus among all baseball fans (maybe everyone except those who call St Louis home) was that the 2009 Cubs had grossly underachieved. Catcher Giovanny Soto, after a fantastic rookie campaign in 2008, was awful in 2009, finishing with a .218 batting average and a mere 11 homeruns. Alfonso Soriano spent much of the season on the disabled list, plagued by injuries that seemed to not to want to let him out of their vice grip. Soriano managed a meager .241 mark at the plate with a pedestrian 20 homeruns. Milton Bradley, the Cubs high risk addition to the outfield, provided his expected amount of erratic behavior but did not deliver his anticipated offensive firepower, finishing with a .257 average and 12 homeruns. Carlos Zambrano failed to reach double digit wins for the first time since becoming a full-time starter and newly-acquired closer Kevin Gregg proved so maddeningly inconsistent that he was let go at season's end.
To retool for 2010, the Cubs dealt the emotionally combustible Bradley to Seattle in exchange for homerun-prone strike-thrower Carlos Silva, who figures to eat innings at the back end of the rotation or as a long reliever. To replace Bradley's outfield offense, the Cubs added Marlon Byrd, fresh off a career year as a Texas Ranger (.283 BA, 20HR, 89 RBI), and Xavier Nady, who spent most of 2009 on the surgical table.
Most importantly for the Cubs, Carlos Zambrano showed up for 2010 having shed 15 pounds. Addition by subtraction at its finest.
Pitching
The aforementioned Zambrano will be the team's ace and opening day starter. His return to form is probably the biggest single determining factor for the Cubs 2010 success or failure. After Zambrano the Cubs will look to Ted Lilly (12-9 3.10 ERA) and Ryan Dempster (11-9 3.65 ERA) as the anchors of a potentially solid starting rotation. Behind those three established winners, the rotation will feature Silva (1-3 8.60ERA last year in Seattle) and Tom Gorzelanny (29-28 career record with a 4.87 ERA). It could, theres that word again, be one of the National League's best rotations.
The bullpen is cause for slightly less optimism than the starting rotation. After cutting ties with Kevin Gregg, the Cubs will look to Carlos Marmol (23 for 30 in save opportunities for his career) to hold late inning leads. John Grabow (4.03 ERA for his career), Sean Marshall (4.55 ERA for his career), and former Notre Dame wideout Jeff Samardzija (5.20 career ERA) have the inside track on middle-inning work. Youngster Esmailin Caridad dazzled in a partial year of big league service last season and will likely be the Cubs' primary setup man.
Hitting
In theory, a lineup featuring Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Giovanny Soto should produce enough runs to contend in the usually mediocre NL Central. In theory. Lee was nagged by injuries in 2009, ditto for Soriano and Ramirez. For the Cubs to realize their 2010 potential, those three must have healthy campaigns and Soto must return to his award-winning 2008 form. The newly acquired Marlon Byrd will be expected to repeat his excellent 2009 numbers and the double play combination of Ryan Theriot (.284 BA last season with a .712 OPS) and Mike Fontenot (.236 BA) can contribute to the team's overall offensive well-being by 1) staying in the lineup and 2) cutting down on strikeouts (Fontenot whiffed in more than 1/5 of his at-bats last season en route to losing his job to Jeff Baker). Lastly, some combination of the thus-far disappointing Kosuke Fukudome (.258 BA in 2 seasons in the USA) and newly-minted Cub Xavier Nady will handle right field duties. Production from either of them would give the Cubs yet another potent offensive weapon.
Overall
So there does that leave the Cubs? Certainly the talent is there, particularly in the middle of the lineup and at the front of the starting rotation, to challenge the Cardinals for supremacy in the NL Central. The entire starting lineup matches up favorably with pretty much any team not called the New York Yankees. But, 162 games must be played. The Cubs, like any team really, must have a mostly healthy team for most of those 162 games to have a real chance at winning. The problem for the Cubs is that, more so than any other team in baseball in recent years, they have an uncanny knack for finding ways to under perform and for treading the well-worn path to the trainer's room and the Disabled List.
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