The Minnesota Twins

The last time we saw the Minnesota Twins they were fighting a valiant up-hill October battle against the eventual world champion Yankees. Alot has happened to the Minnesota team since that series last season. Some of it good (new stadium), some of it bad (new arm ligaments needed for ace closer). My buddy Jonathan kindly volunteered to fill us in on the aftermath of 2009 for the Twins and their prospects for 2010. Also, since this is a Minnesota baseball team we're talking about here, feel free to read what follows out loud in your best Bobby's World/Fargo accent. Enjoy!

--TQ

Early March brought the 2nd worst news any Twins fan could hear: due to a tear in the lower part of his ulnar collateral ligament Joe Nathan likely needs Tommy John's surgery and will miss the 2010 season. Only an injury to 2009 MVP Joe Mauer could be worse news to Minnesotans. As of this writing, we are in the two-week resting period before Nathan tests his arm away from reporters on March 20th or 21st. Still, recovery looks unlikely and the Twins are going to be looking for a closer for the first time since 2004. After expanding their payroll by $31 million already, it is doubtful that the Twins would be willing to pay much for or be able to find a quality closer on the free agent market and will likely look to their solid bullpen to replace Nathan. Despite being a fan favorite, I don't think Nathan's absence will have great effect. With Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jose Mijares and Pat Neshek—once he is fully healthy—all possibilities to close, the Twins' bullpen is still one of the league's best.

The most important developments for the Twins involve the other Joe, the new stadium and the direction the club takes after the death of long time owner Carl Pohlad in 2009. Target Field (pictured) puts the Twins back outdoors after spending 1982 to 2009 inside the HHH Metrodome. Target field is everything a modern field should be, but what it really means to the Twins are two things, attendance and money. Its location near downtown Minneapolis makes it even more of an attraction for fans as does being able to sit outside on a summer night rather than in an inflatable white dome.



It's hard to tell if the new stadium or new ownership is a bigger factor behind the 2010 $96 million opening day payroll. In a begrudging way I can respect the way Carl Pohlad refused to lose money for “the privilege of showing baseball”, but I am optimistic about the increased payroll. The only thing that could sidetrack the Twins from the promising new direction in which they are moving would be the loss of their MVP, favored son, and hoped-for husband of almost every Minnesotan woman, Joe Mauer, to the Red Sox, Yankees or any other non-Twins club. Signing Joe Mauer has to be priority number one for the Twins front office or they could face decreased interest, attendance and money after only one season in their new digs.


2009 Wrapup

As a Twins fans since 1987, I've often wondered if the Twins are trying to have a baseball season or write the plot of the next baseball movie in any given year. Given the seriousness and competence of Tom Kelly and Ron Gardenhire I'll grant them the former, but take a look at the evidence. Without straying into superlative territory too far, the 1991 World Series against the Braves was the most exciting and dramatic WS ever. A game seven that goes into extra innings with no runs scored, amazing! It was almost certainly the most exciting pitching dual any of us will ever see. In 2002, facing extinction, the Twins under first-year manager Gardenhire won their division and the ALDS and talk of contracting the Twins ended. Fast-forward to last year.

The 2009 season passed in similar storybook fashion. After an extremely average season, the Twins, sitting at 70-72 and 5.5 games behind the Tigers, watch their clean-up hitter and former MVP, Justin Morneau, injure his lower back sliding into first and get benched for the rest of 2009. At this point it's over, they'll finish around .500 and hope for a better 2010, right? No. Led by a ragtag bunch of no-namers and a to-be-named 2009 MVP (think of the teams from Major League, Mighty Ducks or Dodgeball here), they close out the regular season on a 16-4 run with major contributions coming from Nick Blackburn (RHP), their bullpen (Joe Nathan was 9 for 9 in save opportunities) and such names as Nick Punto (.400 OBP), Delmon Young (.600 SLG), and Matt Tolbert, who? (.795 OPS). To close out the fairy tale regular season the Twins won a one-game playoff against the Tigers on the 12th inning hitting of Alexi “.202” Casilla (think of Charlie in Mighty Ducks taking the penalty shot in overtime to win the game).

In the postseason, to quote BP, they got squashed by the Yankees in the ALDS (ending the season series 0-10)... because in the real world, Cinderella usually has to settle for the townhouse and the station wagon, not Prince Charming and the palace. The ALDS ended not in Game 3, but in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 2, when A-Rod homered off of Nathan to tie the game. After that it was a foregone conclusion. Side note, the last playoff game the Twins won was in 2004.


Offseason
Here is a rundown of the offseason news that doesn't include Joe Nathan. Playing for the Leones del Escogido, Francisco Liriano torched his way through the Dominican League playoffs going 3-1 with a 0.49 ERA in 7 starts. In spring training, Liriano has continued to look good and hopefully can approach his 2006 performance level in 2010.

In 2009, the Twins opening day payroll was $65 million. Heading to opening day 2010, their payroll now stands at $96 million after re-signings—notably Span for 5 years and $16.5 million—and acquiring Orlando Hudson (2B) from the Dodgers, J.J. Hardy (SS) from Milwaukee, and Jim Thome (DH/1B) from the Dodgers while losing Orlando Cabrera (SS) to the Reds, not re-signing Joe Crede and sending Carlos Gomez (CF) to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy and a promise that no one ever speak of the Johan Santana trade ever again.

2010 Twins
(All stats are for the complete 2009 season.)

Lineup
Offensively, this is a very exciting team. Despite a fairly weak ninth hitter, the Twins have the best lineup in memory.

1. CF Denard Span (my favorite and the most underrated Twin, .392 OBP and a prototypical lead-off man)
2. 2B Orlando Hudson (.283 BA, Gold Glove winner, every Twins fan is happy to have him)
3. C Joe Mauer (2009 MVP, what else is there to say?)
4. 1B Justin Morneau (sadly, his MVP year is starting to look like an outlier)
5. RF Michael Cuddyer (Virginia Beach's own; Cuddy was vital during last year's end-of-season surge)
6. DH Jason Kubel (appeared on some MVP ballots last year, but struggles against LHP)
7. LF Delmon Young (improving and still young at only 24)
8. SS J.J. Hardy (stellar defensively; struggles against RHP)
9. 3B Punto/Harris/Tolbert/Cassila (a tossup, but at least this year the Twins have 8 solid starters)

Bench
Drew Butera and Wilson Ramos will compete for the backup catcher position until Jose Morales recovers from surgery on his right wrist. Morales batted .311 last year when he shared time with Mike Redmond during Mauer's absence and is a good bet to get the backup position once he is healthy. Jim Thome will try to stay healthy and DH off the bench. Brendan Harris (IF) and Nick Punto (IF) will take positions on the roster and only one of Alexi Cassila (IF) and Matt Tolbert (IF) will likely make it. For the record, I don't agree with many pundits who say that Punto is a terrible player. With OBP's of .337 and .341 in the past two seasons, Punto keeps rallies alive and that is all you can ask for from your #9 batter.


Rotation
Here is where the Twins run into trouble. I expect my predictions for the starting lineup and bullpen to be mostly accurate, but here, I wouldn't bet money that more than three of these guys will be in the rotation at the end of the season.
Scott Baker-RHP (Opening Day starter for 2010 and a diamond in the rough that is the starting rotation; after a slow start last season, Baker turned hot, posting a 3.67 ERA and going 13-3 in his last 24 starts)
Kevin Slowey-RHP (rrom BP, the Twins are an organization that collects finesse pitchers as if they'll be used as currency following the apocalypse; Slowey fits this mold perfectly, but it is very much up in the air if he can recover from last year's season-ending wrist injury)
Carl Pavano-RHP (the fact that he's here shows how badly the Twins need starting pitchers, look for a lot of 4 to 5 inning efforts from him)
Nick Blackburn-RHP (he gets his outs through forcing grounders, not strikeouts; again, his presence in the starting lineup is not a good sign)
Francisco Liriano-LHP (optimistically Liriano will be 80% of his 2006 self and therefore a solid contributor; if he fails as a starter again, look for him in the bullpen)

Bench
Jeff Manship-RHP (has given up 9 ER in 5.2 innings so far in spring training; still in competition for the 5th spot)
Glen Perkins-LHP (the Twins were hoping to trade him before he allowed 9 earned runs in 8.1 innings this spring; now his trade value is even lower)
Brian Duensing-LHP (not having the best Spring so far giving up 5 runs in 4 innings)


Bullpen
Jose Mijares-LHP (solid set-up man last year and may play an expanded role in Nathan's absence)
Jesse Crain-RHP (ditto)
Jon Rauch-RHP (ditto)
Pat Neshek-RHP (coming off Tommy John's surgery this side-armer is one of my favorite Twins' relievers and is having a good spring so far (5.0 IP, 1 ER))
Matt Guerrier-RHP (lead the AL in appearances last year; another solid set-up man)
Clay Condrey-RHP (picked up from Philadelphia in the off-season, will likely play a role as the Twins starting rotation will require the bullpen to pitch 3 to 4 innings in many games)
Anthony Slama-RHP (after a good spring is now referred to by Gardy as Slama Jama; more likely to make the roster with Nathan out)
Anthony Swarzak-RHP (a rarity, a power pitcher in the Twins' system)

2010 Predictions

Worst-case scenario:
The starting rotation lives up to its billing and no matter what replacements are made, nothing works. The talented lineup is plagued by injuries (Morneau's back, Mauer's knees, etc.). The excellent bullpen never becomes a factor.
At some point during the season it leaks that Mauer's agent is in serious negotiations with the Yankees. This will coincide with an announcement by Brett Favre that he was really working for the Packers the whole of last season and gained all of Minnesota's trust just to crush them when they were minutes away from the Super Bowl, and also news that the T-Wolves are hiring back Kevin McHale. Target Field is found to be structurally unsound and Minnesotan decide to give up all non-hockey sports for eternity because their hearts just hurt too much.

Best-case scenario:
Let's face it, the Twins will almost certainly never have a roster that compares to that of the Red Sox or Yankees on paper. Losing players to free agency, not gaining them has been the norm. So if the Twins are going to win a World Series anytime soon it will be somewhat as a Cinderella. 2010 seems as likely a year for this as any. Offensively, the Twins haven't looked this good for years. Defensively, if the Twins can cobble together 5 starters that will allow games to get to a point where their bullpen can work their magic then they can compete with anyone.

Bottom Line Bottom Line:
Look for the Twins to capture a weak AL Central with one more victory that the second place White Sox. At this point they will play the Red Sox or the Yankees in the ALDS, losing 2 games to 3, which at least gives them their first playoff victories since 2004.