Baseball Prospectus Comes to DC

From left to right, Baseball Prospectus writers Matt Swartz, Jay Jaffe, Steven Goldman, Kevin Goldstein, and (barely visible) Clay Davenport.


"I honestly believe that Adam Jones is a better baseball player than Willie Mays." Thus spoke Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus's National Writer on Scouting and Player Development tonight at a book signing event at DC's famed Politics and Prose Bookstore. I regularly attend events there as a part of my recent embrace of my unhealthy affinity for all things books. I've met some memorable authors, heard some amusing stories, listened in awe to people of genius describe what they do and why they do it. But, I've never heard anything like the above declarative. It went like a lightning bolt to the cold recesses of my black and orange soul.

Man. I tell ya. Adam Jones.

Adam Jones the superior of a deity like Mays? To back up this assertion, Mr. Goldstein explained that modern athletes are, by and large, more advanced than their progenitors. Case and point...Jesse Owens' 1936 Olympic gold medal winning track and field times and scores are standard fare now for championship athletes at the High School level. Jones faces pitches (the slider and split-finger) that Mays never saw, endures crazier travel, and faces players drawn from an international talent pool. Put his ability back into the 1950s, and he'd do unbelievable things.

So its not that theres anything particularly impressive about Adam Jones, he's just a part of a modern game in which is bigger, faster and stronger than what our grandfathers watched. (Sorry Baltimore Fans.)

Now that they had my attention, Steven Goldman, the jefe of the Baseball Prospectus team, dove deeper into this point of historical vs modern with a look at Joe DiMaggio's career hitting record. An examination of his team-by-team splits for his career reveals, Mr. Goldman explained, that DiMaggio batted near .450 and slugged almost .900 against the hapless St. Louis Browns over the course of his career. Big deal? Well, before 1961 each league had 8 teams and played 154 games. Divide 154 by 7 and thats how many games each year the Joltin Joe got to play against a team that had, in a good season, Triple-A level talent.

What does that mean? Dunno. but its an interesting way of looking at things. I wonder what Albert Pujols hits against the Pirates.

A question about the fallibility of the statistical projections within their publication elicited the most thorough response of the evening from the Baseball Prospectus panel. A gentleman sporting busness attire and a Yankee cap demanded a satisfactory explanation for the pessimistic forecasts put out in Prospectus over the past two seasons for Yankee captain Derek Jeter. Different men on the panel appraoched the complaint differently. A couple focused on Jeter's status as a statistical outlier, a shortstop who has continued to hit well, and even experienced a spike in numbers, into his mid-to-late 30's. One stressed that if he continues on his track, Jeter's only comparable will be Honus Wagner.

But the most satisfying answer to the question was Goldstein's candid explanation that systems for projecting athletic performance do not account for personal choices, unforeseen events, and even for tragedy. A mathematical model does not know that Jeter drastically altered his offseason workout routine prior to the 09 season. It presumes static human behavior. Similarly, a look at Frank Thomas statistics from the 1990s reveals a long string of eye-catching offensive numbers. But theres an anamoly in 1998; Thomas hit a mere .268. No one saw that coming. The issue, Goldstein explained was that Frank Thomas was going through an awful divorce that season. Not something included in a model for measuring his stats.

Does that void the validity of the Prospectus statistical projections? Certainly not. But like alot of what the assembled cast of writers had to say, it is food for thought.

A few more points

-- While I was getting my copy of the book signed, I asked the panel what they thought the impact on the major league game will be when the United States normalizes relations with Cuba, allowing for the free flow to the big leagues of top Cuban talent. Clay Davenport, one of the writers, told me that he has been playing with models for stats of Cuban stars and his best guess, seconded by Goldstein was that 20 to 30 major league-ready players will flow onto professional rosters as soon as the diplomatic barriers crumble. But let 10 years elapse, and, both men agreed, Cuba will be like the Dominican Republic, pumping out a significant percentage of top big league talent. Food for thought.

-- Several audience questions focused around Nationals' uber-phenom Steven Strasburg. Goldman and Goldstein set the over/under on his arrival at Nationals Park at May 29. I'll take the over. I think the Nats will hold out until about July 4. How would that be for an Independence Day celebration?

(A quick note on things to come. After a doubleheader on Monday in which we ran previews of both the Braves and Rangers, today's post is a break from daily team-by-team previews. On Thursday we will pick back up with the San Francisco Giants, on Friday the Red Sox, and, don't make any weekend plans, the Rays and the Pirates are on their way on Saturday and Sunday.)