The Sawx

A quick read of my 2008 postings reveals my feelings towards the circus surrounding the Boston Red Sox. This season, just like last season, I suspect that elements of Red Sox Nation will irritate me to the point of internet ranting. The ESPN-led deification of the Red Sox and their fans and the rampant bandwagoning which has taken place since October 2004 bothers me on many levels. My abhorrence for pink Varitek jerseys, T-shirt jerseys which just say "Papi" on the back, and the over-coverage of all things Red Sox need not occupy much of our time here.

With Red Sox fans who can remember Jody Reed, Bill Hasselman, and Mo Vaughn, I have no quarrel. True baseball fans who happen to like the Red Sox are fine people and a credit to the brotherhood of fandom. One such person, Chris George, was kind enough to write up his thoughts on his favorite team's upcoming season.

Enjoy.


2008 in Review

Last season ended with a whimper as the Red Sox went down with relative ease in game seven of the ALCS, victim to the upstart Tampa Bay Devil Rays. But to call the 2008 season a disappointment would be to overlook how amazing it had been that they made it that far. Boston finished 95-67, the AL Wild Card selection, finishing two games out of first place. And this was despite losing, to injury, David Ortiz (only 108 games played), JD Drew (109), Mike Lowell (113), Julio Lugo (82), Josh Beckett (27 starts), Daisuke Matsuzaka (29 starts), and Bartolo Colon (7 starts). Captain Jason Varitek had, by many measures his worst season since his rookie year. The pitching staff struggled to find consistency. And who could forget the ongoing drama, “Manny being Manny,” until Manny Ramirez was run out of town, and replaced in left field by the consummately professional Jason Bay.
Behind the steady hand of manager Terry Francona and the leadership of a solid core of young players, including AL MVP Dustin Pedroia, the 2008 club fell one win shy of the World Series, an appearance that would have been the third in a five year period, a feat that has not been accomplished in Boston since the club won the championship in 1915, 1916, 1918. Indeed, Francona’s tenure has included one of the greatest five year periods in club history: four playoff appearances, two World Championships, 470 wins to 340 losses (.580) in the regular season, 28 wins to 14 losses (.667) in the postseason. And the team is only getting younger – only four players remain from the 2004 greatest-comeback-in-the-history-of-baseball team. General manager Theo Epstein has proven himself to be a solid talent evaluator and adept in the draft. And there is every indication that the team will remain strong going forward.

The Offseason

The Boston Red Sox 2008-2009 offseason will be best remembered for the move that was never made: the failure to sign free agent first baseman Mark Teixiera – or any other big name free agent for that matter – all the while the Yankees went on a shopping spree. Epstein is hesitant to trade players with upside for high priced veterans expected to have diminishing returns. So the team did not trade Clay Buchholz, the erstwhile future stud coming off a no hitter in his second career start in 2007 who suffered through extreme mediocrity and confidence issues before getting demoted, in exchange for one of the Texas Rangers catchers.
Instead the team locked down what they have, and supplemented the youth with cheap veterans. Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis – numbers one and three respectively in MVP voting – were signed to four year contract extensions for considerably less that what they could have received on the open market. And despite demanding four years at $15 million a pop, Varitek, 37 in April, opted to re-sign for one year and 5, with an option for 2010. Gone are utility outfielder Alex Cora, outfielder Coco Crisp, backup catcher Kevin Cash, reliever David Aardsma, and member of the injured list Bartolo Colon. Backup first baseman Sean Casey has retired, and reliever Mike Timlin is expected to follow suit. Curt Schilling, out for all of 2008 after arm surgery, may attempt to return with a team for half the season, or may retire, depending on the progress of his rehab.
So who is new in town? Josh Bard is back for his second stint with the club, on the hope that he can catch the knuckleball this time around. Oft-injured former Ray Rocco Baldelli will see time in the outfield. Journeyman outfielder / first baseman Brad Wilkerson received a minor league deal, and has a decent shot of making the team. As for the pitchers, the team’s biggest offseason splash was made with the signings of John Smoltz and Brad Penny. If they are able to stay healthy, they will add tremendous depth to the staff. Smoltz is expected to be rehabbing until late May or so after labrum surgery, but Penny will have an immediate impact. Epstein always signs a bunch of cheap relievers on the off chance that one or two will be able to contribute. In this category we have 39-year-old Takashi Saito (2.49, 60 K in 47 innings, 18 saves in 2008 for the Dodgers) and 27-year-old Fernando Cabrera (5.40, 31 K in 28.1 innings for Baltimore). Add to this mix Ramon Ramirez, former Royals set up man (2.64, 70 K in 71.2 IP), and there will be considerable competition for bullpen spots this spring. One last acquisition of note: 22-year-old righty Junichi Tazawa opted out of the Japanese professional draft, and was signed to a three year deal. He will start the season in Double A and could impact the big club later this season.

2009 Roster

There is an overabundance of talent in camp at some positions, a paucity at others. The pitching staff is loaded, as the farm system keeps bearing fruit and some significant acquisitions were made in this department. And while the offense has the potential to be potent, there is little on the bench. Assuming there are no injuries this March (knock on wood) and that the team doesn’t acquire a catcher (please?), in my most humble opinion, the opening day roster of the 2009 Boston Red Sox follows.

The starting lineup:

Center Field Jacoby Ellsbury .280 / .336 / .394
50 Stolen Bases
Second Base Dustin Pedroia .326 / .376 / .493
MVP, Gold Glove
Designated Hitter David Ortiz .264 / .369 / .507
First Base Kevin Youkilis .312 / .390 / .569
Left Field Jason Bay .286 / .373 / .522
Right Field J.D. Drew .280 / .408 / .519
Third Base Mike Lowell .274 / .338 / .461
Catcher Jason Varitek .220 / .313 / .359
Short Stop Julio Lugo .268 / .355 / .330

The bench:

Catcher Josh Bard .202 / .279 / .270
Shortstop Jed Lowrie .258 / .339 / .400
Outfield Rocco Baldelli .263 / .344 / .475
Outfield / First Base Brad Wilkerson .220 / .308 / .326

The starting rotation:

Josh Beckett 12-10, 4.03 ERA, 8.88 K/9, 1.19 WHIP
Jon Lester 16-6, 3.21 ERA, 6.50 K/9, 1.27 WHIP
Daisuke Matsuzaka 18-3, 2.90 ERA, 8.27 K/9, 1.32 WHIP
Brad Penny 6-9, 6.27 ERA, 4.85 K/9, 1.63 WHIP
Tim Wakefield 10-11, 4.13 ERA, 5.82 K/9, 1.18 WHIP

And the bullpen:

Close Jonathan Papelbon 2.34 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 0.95 WHIP, 41 Saves
Set up Takashi Saito 2.49 ERA, 11.49 K/9, 1.19 WHIP, 18 Saves
Hideki Okajima 2.61 ERA, 8.71 K/9, 1.16 WHIP
Everyone else Manny Delcarmen 3.27 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 1.12 WHIP
Javier Lopez 2.43 ERA, 5.76 K/9, 1.35 WHIP
Ramon Ramirez 2.64 ERA, 8.79 K/9, 1.23 WHIP
Justin Masterson 3.16 ERA, 6.93 K/9, 1.22 WHIP

Don’t be surprised to see Tim Wakefield end up in the bullpen once John Smoltz is ready to pitch. And should Julio Lugo struggle, expect Jed Lowrie to be quickly be thrust back into the starting role he competently filled the last half of the 2008 season.

Predictions, Presentiments, and Miscellaneous Analysis

The key to the 2009 Boston Red Sox season is health. Quite frankly, if David Ortiz and Mike Lowell can’t stay healthy and return to something close to their 2006-2007 form, the team will be hard pressed to go very far. J.D. Drew will end up on the DL at some point – this much is inevitable – and his continuing back woes are the reason I think the team carries an “extra” backup outfield in the person of Brad Wilkerson, who is also capable of filling in at first on occasion should Lowell or Youkilis need a day off.
The pitching staff is as solid as it could be. Improvements here were the key achievement of the offseason. And there is even more depth in the upper levels of the minors (i.e. Buchholtz, Bowden, possibly Tazawa) who could make spot starts if needed and most certainly will be late season call ups. The club remains relatively thin elsewhere however. And there is little infield depth in the upper levels of the minors, aside from 4-A Pawtucket residents Jeff Bailey and Chris Carter. Should any long-term injuries occur, there is no one available who could consistently put forth an acceptable level of production. Expect a trade should this happen. And catcher remains a particular concern, where both starter and backup are coming off two miserable offensive seasons. Despite his excellent clubhouse presence and ability to handle the pitching staff, (almost) 37-year-old Varitek has reached the point where he should not be playing every day. It remains a high priority to get an offensive presence at catcher, to upgrade the position, not just for 2009, but for the foreseeable future. But it doesn’t appear that this will be happening any time soon.
The unfortunate reality is that the Sox play in the most difficult division in the American League. The Yankees added three All-Star caliber players to their already loaded lineup. And the Rays are coming off a pennant winning season. There is a legitimate chance that this team finishes no higher than third. And if major injury strikes, this is all but guaranteed. But I am far more optimistic. Healthy, this remains one of the best offenses in baseball. And it is paired with arguably the best pitching staff fielded by a Red Sox team since 2004. This is a team that will win some ballgames, should at least take the Wild Card, and will put together a serious playoff run.
The ever so biased prediction of this Red Sox fan: 98-64, AL East Champions, World Series Champions.