Cecil Cooper's Base Stealers

The Astros were in the World Series a few years ago. That is worth remembering. This is a team which has been consistently successful (if only for the second half of some recent seasons) for essentially the past decade. Streaky? Definitely. Champions? Not yet. Relevant for 2009? Time will tell.

I appreciate Mark Smith's willingness to provide a fan's eye view of the 2009 Astros. While media attention is prone to centering on Miguel Tejada's off-field battles with the Justice system and against his birth certificate, it is easy to get distracted from the simple fact that the Astros are a baseball team who will take the field 162 times this year trying to win the NL Central division.

Enjoy.


Last year the Astros had the second best record during the second half of last season. The Astros had just begun playing their best ball of the year when hurricane Ike decided to pay a visit to the Lone Star State. Thanks to Drayton waiting to be sure that Ike was coming to Houston and Bud Selig’s poor decision making, we were stuck playing a 3 game “home series” against the division leader Chicago Cubs in Milwaukee. Even though the city of Houston had other things on their mind, Astros fans were irate with the fact we were playing a key “home” series against the Cubs a little over 90 miles away from the Windy City. During this “home series, Zambrono no hit the Astros and the rush to the wild card was all but dead. The roster for the Houston Astros this season has a few changes from last year, however it does not seem like these changes improved the team very much. Almost every player that the Astros did not resign went to play for the Dodgers. Randy Wolf, Brad Ausmus, and Mark Loretta all will be wearing Dodger blue this spring. The Astros also non-tendered Ty Wiggington who will now be suiting up in orange and black, joining all the other former Astros that now play for the Orioles (Luke Scott, Aubrey Huff, Dennis Sarfate, and Troy Patton to just name a few). While BP projects the Astros to lose 97 games I have a little more confidence in The Good Guys than that.

While losing Wolf is hard to swallow, especially for a measly (in baseball terms) 5 million, I think he was over performing the second half of last year. According to good old Milo Hamilton, Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz have looked really good. Currently the fifth spot in the rotation is up for grabs with Russ Ortiz, Houston Clay Hensley, Fernando Nieve, Felipe Paulino, and Galveston product Brandon Backe in the running. Backe is the odds on favorite but Russ Ortiz has been playing well early. Nieve has no options left on his contract so if he doesn’t make it he will have to pass through waivers. An outside candidate for the open rotation spot is our top pitching prospect Bud Norris. He has yet to pitch above AA so he has to have a very dominant spring to make the big leagues. The only solace that an Astros fan can find in the starting rotation is the consistent and dependable Roy Oswalt. He can always be counted on for at least two hundred innings and anything between 15-20 wins. He is the definition of an ace.

One of the biggest strengths of the Astros is their bullpen. At the back end there is Jose Valverde who has more saves over the last two seasons than every player besides K-Rod. Setting him up is the combination of Doug Brocail and LaTroy Hawkins, both who had sub 3 ERA’s last year.

There are only two other positions that have a battle going on, even though they are pretty much locked up. At catcher Brad Ausmus is gone, which is met with great sadness by all the female fans. We now have Humberto Quintero penciled in as the favorite to start and Rule V draftee Lou Palmisano is projected to be the backup. J.R. Towles is also in the running but after hitting .137 last year, his chances are very low. Astros fans everywhere are just hoping that our top prospect and last year’s first round pick, Jason Castro will be called up this year and Ed Wade has said he might be ready for full time duty in 2010. The other open position is third base. After cutting Wiggy, the Astros signed Aaron (Bleeping) Boone to platoon with Geoff Blum. This is locked up unless Chris Johnson has an amazing spring. He hit .324 in AA last year but in a little over hundred at bats at AAA he hit only .218. If he has a terrific spring he has a chance, but is likely ticketed for AAA.
Out in the outfield Carlos Lee has left field locked up for the next four years, so no problems there. Hunter Pence will be patrolling right field for years to come and hopefully Michael Bourn can put it together and produce this year in center. As the biggest piece the Astros received from the Brad Lidge trade, Bourn is under a lot of scrutiny and pressure to succeed. He has amazing speed and if he could just figure out how to get on base he would be a threat at the top of the lineup. If Bourn gets off to a slow start again this year and Brian Bogusevic is hammering the ball down in AAA he better watch out. Bogusevic is trying to pull a Rick Ankiel after flaming out as a pitcher. Last year in AA he hit .371 and he projects as a centerfielder with plus power.

In the infield, Lance Berkman will be manning first base, Kaz Matsui will be trotting out to second base when healthy, Miguel Tejada will be at shortstop, and Geoff Blum and Aaron Boone have third base. The infield backups will be whoever isn’t playing out of Boone and Blum and either Edwin Maysonet, Tommy Manzella, Jason Smith, or Matt Kata. Manzella is projected to take over at SS in 2010 if the Astros let Tejada walk at the end of the season as many expect.

Overall I do not think that the Astros will go 67-95 as BP projects. This team is not as good as last year’s team right now, but if Hampton and Ortiz or Backe can chip in 10-15 wins this team has chance to sneak into the wild card picture. Right now I see this team maybe going .500 or a little less. The most important thing for this team going into the season is starting off good. In 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2008 they started poorly and finished with a tear. If they can play good in the first half of the season, Drayton McLane has always shown willingness to increase the payroll if the team is performing well by bringing in top players in midseason (Carlos Beltran, Randy Johnson, etc). If the cards fall in the right spot this team has a chance. The key to this season is whether Mike Hampton and whoever our fifth starter is can play up to their potential. If that happens, the Astros might turn some heads this year; let’s all just hope they get it together before August.
Final Projection: 83- 79, 3rd in the NL Central

Projected Starting Lineup
2B Kaz Matsui, .293, 6 HR, 33 RBI
SS Miguel Tejada .283, 13 HR, 66 RBI
1B Lance Berkman .312, 29 HR, 106 RBI
LF Carlos Lee .314, 28 HR, 100 RBI
RF Hunter Pence.269, 25 HR, 83 RBI
3B Geoff Blum .240, 13 HR, 53 RBI
C Humberto Quintero .226, 2 HR, 12 RBI
CF Michael Bourn .229, 5 HR, 29 RBI
Projected Starting Rotation
Roy Oswalt 17-10, 3.54, 165 K
Wandy Rodriguez 9-7, 3.54, 131 K
Mike Hampton 3-4, 4.85, 38 K
Brian Moehler 11-8, 4.56, 82 K
Brandon Backe 9-14, 6.05, 127 K
Bullpen
Closer: Jose Valverde 44 Saves, 3.38 ERA, 83 K
Set up: Doug Brocail 3.93 ERA, 64 K, 68.2 IP
LaTroy Hawkins 3.92 ERA, 48 K, 62 IP
Middle Relief: Wesley Wright 5.01 ERA, 57 K, 55.2 IP
Geoff Geary 2.53 ERA, 45 K, 64 IP
Tim Byrdak 3.90 ERA, 47 K, 55.1 IP
Long Relief: Chris Sampson 4.22 ERA, 61 K, 117.1 IP

Bench
OF/1B Darin Erstad .276, 4 HR, 31 RBI
OF Jason Michaels .224, 8 HR, 53 RBI
3B/IF Aaron Boone .241, 6 HR, 28 RBI
C Lou Palmisano No stats, played in AA last season
The other backup infield spot is up for competition between prospects Tommy Manzella, Edwin Maysonet, Jason Smith, and Matt Kata.

Miscellaneous Notes
When the economy started to really go downhill in October, The Astros' Owner decided that he was going to cut back on his spending. It started out that if the Astros were going to sign a top tier free agent or resign Randy Wolf, they were going to have to trade a high priced veteran such as Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, or Ty Wiggington. As the winter drew on the Astros decided that they were better off keeping a top flight closer than resigning a mid level starter in Randy Wolf. In order to save more money the team decided to non-tender Wiggy. Also of note is that manager Cecil Cooper is in the last year of his contract. This is curious because the Astros have always shown a willingness to sign their managers to extensions before their contracts run out (Phil Garner and Larry Dierker come to mind). This also is made interesting by the fact that Cecil Cooper was not hired by General Manager Ed Wade. Drayton removed the interim manager tag from Cooper at the end of the 2007 season. As a result of Coop not being offered a contract extension beyond this season, it is believed by many that he is on the hot seat.