The Erie Warriors

Enough time has elapsed since the dark days of the late 80s and early 90s that most folks my age are hard pressed to remember a time when the indians were a joke.



A pleasant reminder.

Props to Chris Music for stepping up in the clutch with the Indians preview. Pedro Cerrano couldn't have come through better.





2009: A Year of Change for the Nation, a Year of Change for Baseball in Cleveland?

Will the Tribe break through in year 61 of the World Series Championship drought, or will it be another year of waiting for Cleveland fans?

(81-81, Central Division, 3rd Place)

Going into Eric Wedge’s seventh season as Indians’ skipper, the team faces many question marks:

* Will Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner bounce back from injury plagued 2008 seasons?
* Have the Indians found their lock down closer in Kerry Wood?
* How will the starting pitching unfold in its first full season without CC Sabathia?
* Will the corner outfielders produce enough offensively?
* Lastly, is Eric Wedge really the man for the job?



Recap of 2008:

Highlights:

* Grady Sizemore: .266, 33 HR, 90 RBI, 38 Steals
* Jhonny Peralta: .274, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 104 Runs
* Kelly Shoppach: .261, 21 HR, .875 OPS
* Shin-Soo Choo: .309, 14 HR, 66 RBI, .946 OPS (94 games)
* Cliff Lee: AL CY Young, 22-3, 2.54 ERA
* Jensen Lewis: 3.82 ERA, 13-13 in save opportunities after assuming closer role in August



Disappointments:

* Travis Hafner: 57 Games, .197, 5 HR, 24 RBI
* Victor Martinez: 73 Games, .278, 2 HR, 35 RBI
* Fausto Carmona: 8-7, 120.2 IP, 5.44 ERA
* Jake Westbrook: 1-2, 3.12 ERA, 5 starts, Tommy John Surgery last summer
* Rafael Betancourt: 5.07 ERA
* Jeremy Sowers: 4-9, 5.58 ERA



Despite a disappointing collapse in the 2007 ALCS, pundits across the nation in 2008 maintained high hopes for the Indians. Historically, the Indians have struggled mightily in fulfilling those predictions. Quickly the 2008 season’s fate was determined with Peter Gammons’ kiss of death predictions of an Indians World Series victory. After starting the season with two wins against the rival White Sox, the Tribe faltered quickly, losing 10 of the next 13 games. Horrendous hitting was a thorn in the Indians side, as they endured a stretch of 9 losses in 10 games in May along with a 10 game losing streak. Come July, the writing was on the wall, as Mark Shapiro traded CC Sabathia to Milwaukee for outfielders Matt Laporta and Michael Brantley and pitchers Zach Jackson and Rob Bryson. Weeks later, Shapiro dealt fan favorite Casey Blake to the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitcher Jon Meloan and catcher Carlos Santana (No not the musical legend.) Entering the All-Star Break at 41-53, and the GM trading for prospects it appeared the Tribe were destined to a 90 loss season and a LAST PLACE FINISH. However, Eric Wedge rallied the team to a 40-28 second half record, climbing into third place and finishing 7.5 games behind division winner Chicago.

Offseason Moves:

Players acquired:

* INF Mark DeRosa (Trade with Chicago Cubs)
* RP Kerry Wood (Free Agent signing from Chicago Cubs)
* RP Joe Smith (Trade with New York Mets)
* INF Luis Valbuena (Trade with Seattle Mariners)
* SP Carl Pavano (Free Agent signing from New York Yankees)



With a limited budget, Shapiro essentially could make only one “large” signing, to address any of the three areas of need: Closer, Corner Outfielder, and Middle Infielder/Third Baseman. Following his emphasis on a strong bullpen as a foundation, Shapiro chose to address the bullpen by signing Wood to a two year, $20.5M contract, with an option for $11M should Wood finish 55 games in either of the first two seasons. The move is a gamble for the Tribe, given Wood’s injury history, but for the first time since essentially the Jose Mesa era, the Indians have a traditional flame-throwing closer. In the DeRosa trade, Shapiro is attempting to kill two birds with one stone; finding a consistent second hitter in the order which the team has lacked since Omar Vizquel several years ago, and a replacement at third base for Casey Blake. In a three team trade involving the Mets and Mariners, the Indians acquired Joe Smith (yes, now two three Cleveland sports franchise have a role player named Joe Smith) and Luis Valbuena. Smith adds more depth to the bullpen in middle relief, and Valbuena gives the team added depth in the middle infield, potentially facilitating in the future, the shift of Jhonny Peralta to third base and Asdrubal Cabrera to his natural position at shortstop. The last acquisition of the off-season, signing Carl Pavano, is somewhat reminiscent of the Kevin Millwood signing Shapiro made prior to the 2005, in that both players had hobbled pasts coupled with flashes of brilliance. Pavano will earn $1.5M this season and up to $5.3M in incentives based on starts 18-35 and innings from 130-235. Pavano is currently the number three starter in the rotation, quite a risk in my opinion given that the last time he reached the low end of those incentives in 2004.

Projected 25 Man Roster:

Starting Lineup:

1. Grady Sizemore (CF) – A strained groin has kept him out of the WBC, hopefully he will not push too hard in Spring Training. Stealing a page from the Right Guard marketing books…Anything less than a 30/30 season this year would be uncivilized
2. Mark DeRosa (3B) – His 21 HR and 87 RBI last year were career highs. A season of .285, with about 15-18 HR and 75 RBI would be a great success in 2009.
3. Travis Hafner (DH) – A huge question mark for 2009, he has just started playing in spring training games this week. Hopefully, he can bounce back and produce a line of .280, 30 HR, 100 RBI
4. Victor Martinez (1B) – Coming into camp, he told the media that he is healthy and ready to go. Wedge announced that he will be Carmona’s official catcher this season. Given Shoppach’s success last year, Victor will probably see no more than 80-100 games behind the plate. With his ability to play first base, the reduced strain from catching should help him return to the form which hit over .300 in 2005-2007
5. Jhonny Peralta (SS) – Last season Peralta performed admirably in the cleanup spot while Hafner and Martinez were on the DL. Jhonny’s power numbers have continued to mature, and he could make a run at 30 HR this season.
6. Shin-Soo Choo (RF) – Choo had a dynamite partial season last year, returning from Tommy John surgery. Currently playing for Korea in the WBC though he is experiencing some trouble with the surgically repaired elbow. Choo can get on base, and barring any relapse could have a breakout season with a full year of at-bats.
7. Ben Francisco (LF) – Which Francisco will the Indians see this year; the one who hit close to .300 in the first half, or the one who hit in the .230s in the second half? Expect something in the .280 range, given that last year he experienced a “baptism by fire” by being forced to spend most of his rookie season in the number three slot in the order. Also, hits righties equally as well as lefties.
8. Kelly Shoppach (C) – Will be Cliff Lee’s personal catcher this year. Can he hit enough to give Victor adequate rest from catching though?
9. Asdrubal Cabrera (2B) – After struggling with the bat early on, he hit .320 over the last two months of 2008. In addition, he possesses a dynamite glove, one capable of making a web gem on any given night.



Bench:

* Ryan Garko (1B) – Shoppach’s development last year, coupled with management wanting to ease the burden on Martinez behind the plate, have Garko on the short end of a four player platoon (Hafner, Martinez, Shoppach) for three positions (C, 1B, DH). Garko has spent some in Left Field in Spring Training and could see some time there this year
* David Dellucci (OF) – Not much to say here, the guy does not have incredible bat speed, does not have a great arm, essentially here because Shapiro overpaid. Look for him to keep the seat warm until Trevor Crowe or Matt LaPorta are ready for a promotion mid-season
* Jamey Carroll (UTIL) – The Ryan Seacrest lookalike is a scrapper, who can pretty much play any position on the field, has great range and can get on base. Ideally would prefer to see him playing 60-70 games instead of 113 last year.
* Josh Barfield (INF/OF) – Like Garko, Barfield has spent some time in the outfield to improve his versatility on the team. Hopefully can bounce back from two disappointing years in Cleveland and give the Indians some valuable depth at multiple positions.
* Prospects to consider later in the season: LaPorta, Crowe, Wes Hodges, Michael Brantley



Starting Rotation:

1. Cliff Lee - Can he continue to take command as the ace of the rotation now that Sabathia is gone? Expect to see approximately 15-20 wins and an ERA around 3.50.
2. Fausto Carmona – Given the rest of the rotation after him, it is imperative that he gives the Indians at least 30 starts this season. He looked strong in Winter Ball and barring injury should win 12-16 games
3. Carl Pavano – Yes, this is not a typo. Here’s to hoping that he can gain some incentives out of this contract, since Jake Westbrook will be out the entire first half of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
4. Anthony Reyes – Could be a real diamond in the rough, as he compiled a 1.83 ERA in six starts late last season. Can he avoid the arm trouble that shut him down in September?
5. Aaron Laffey? – Given his track record compared to the others he has the inside track, however, has had a shaky spring. Jeremy Sowers, Zach Jackson, Scott Lewis, and David Huff all are still in the running for this final spot



Bullpen:

1. Kerry Wood (CP) - If healthy enough to replicate last year’s performance, a big win for Shapiro
2. Jensen Lewis – Flourished last year in the closer role, showed no signs of a sophomore slump in his first full season as a reliever. Could be Wood’s primary setup man for 2009
3. Rafael Perez – 2008 was his second consecutive strong season and continues to dominate lefties.
4. Rafael Betancourt – Like the San Antonio Spurs, Betancourt has stronger seasons in odd years, playing a critical role in the success of the 2005 and 2007 seasons. If he maintains this streak, the Indians could very well play six inning games much of this coming season
5. Joe Smith – Posted back to back sub-4.00 ERA seasons with the Mets, sidearm motion brings a different flavor to the pen.
6. Masahide Kobayashi – In the first half of 2008 was the Tribe’s most effective reliever; however, he dropped mightily starting in July. Given the depth, hopefully he will have a reduced role.
7. Adam Miller? - The much hyped prospect of the 2003 Draft for the Indians, is trying to make the team as the last reliever. Injuries have plagued his career, and he currently has a hole in one of the fingers on his pitching hand! When healthy, he is dominating, and there had been talk of grooming him to be the closer of the future.

Others in consideration for the role are Rich Rundles, John Meloan, Tony Sipp, Kirk Saarloos, and last but certainly not least Edward “Last of the Mujicans” Mujica. Mujica is out of options, and Saarloos has the most big league experience of the bunch, which could lead to one of the two winning the spot if Miller falters. This corner personally hopes that 2008 was truly the “Last of the Mujicans,” given his propensity to give up multiple runs without completing a full inning.

Final Outlook: (87-75), Second place AL Central. Right now just too many question marks to leave this corner confident enough to return to the playoffs….