The Mile High Club

On an overcast evening in the middle of August last summer, I watched the Colorado Rockies top the Washington Nationals 4-3 from the highly-sought-after $5 seats in the third base side upper deck at the new Nationals’ Park. It was a meaningless game between two teams with losing records. The Rockies, as is the god-given right of all NL West teams, were still technically in the running for a division title at that point. The Nationals, having been eliminated from contention sometime around Flag Day, were in full play-out-the-string mode.

Other than a rocket solo homerun to leftfield by Troy Tulowitzki, a resounding RBI double from Matt Holliday, and a couple of stolen bases from Willy Taveras which set a team SB record, the game was mostly unmemorable. Taking a 4-3 lead into the 8th inning, Rockies pitchers did not allow another Nationals batsman to reach base. Taylor Buchholz and Brian Fuentes combined to retire 6 straight hitters. 4 of them on strikeouts.

For our present purposes, that story is relevant because Holliday is now in Oakland, Taveras is a Red, Buchholz will start the season on the disabled list with ominous elbow issues, and Fuentes is now a member of Los Angeles de Los Angeles.

The 2009 Rockies are starting to look a lot less like the team which appeared in the 2007 World Series. If this season goes poorly expect the team to look even less like their 2007 counterparts.

Pitching

The injury bug has already drawn blood from the Rockies. In addition to Buchholz’s ulnar collateral ligament strain, lefty staff ace Jeff Francis underwent shoulder surgery on February 25 and will miss the entire season. Word out of the Rockies medical tent is that Francis will be ready again in 2010. Still, the words “ace” and “shoulder surgery” don’t go well together.

2008 All Star Aaron Cook will anchor this season’s Rockies staff. His sub-4.00 ERA and 16 wins in 2008 are reason for Denver fans to rejoice. The fact that he gave up 236 hits in 211 innings last year is cause for some concern that the real Aaron Cook is something more like the .500 pitcher of previous years. Behind Cook in the Rockies rotation is Ubaldo Jimenez who used an upper 90’s fastball and a modicum of control to post 12 wins with a 3.99 ERA in his first full season of big league work. Jason Marquis, acquired via trade from the Cubs in the offseason will eat innings in the middle of the rotation and, if his career track record is any indication, he may run into serious homerun-surrendering issues in Denver’s thin air. The 4th spot in the rotation should go to Jorge de la Rosa whose workman-like 2008 offers hope that his early career struggles in Milwaukee and Kansas City were merely growing pains. Greg Smith, a lefty acquired in the Holliday deal is the early leader in the 5th spot sweepstakes. Look for prospects Franklin Morales and Greg Reynolds to be early season options to bolster the rotation if injuries and ineffectiveness rear their ugly heads.

With Fuentes gone to LA and Buchholz on the shelf for the foreseeable future, the onus of late game bullpen-ing will fall upon the maddeningly inconsistent Manny Corpas and the equally enigmatic new arrival, Huston Street. Its unclear which of the two will emerge as the full-time closer or if manager Clint Hurdle will simply go with the pitcher with the hot hand in late game situations. Veteran lefty Alan Embree and righty Jason Grilli will provide most of the major league experience in the middle innings relief corps. Longtime veterans Glendon Rusch and Josh Fogg are in camp this spring seeking long relief jobs. Rusch kept his ERA under 5.00 last season, which, in Denver, isn’t bad for a long reliever.


Offense

Matt Holliday is gone. Over the last 3 years he slugged .586, .607, and .538 and scored 346 runs. That’s a lot of offense departed to Oakland. The folks at Baseball Prospectus produce numbers to show that Holliday was a classic Thin Air Superstar in Denver. Even if that’s the case, he was a pretty good Mile High fluke.

Todd Helton, the longtime face of the Colorado franchise will turn 36 this season and has shown every indication in the past few seasons of having entered the always difficult to watch “statistical free fall” segment of his career. He will be the everyday 1st baseman for the Rockies until his body, or a miracle of a trade, say otherwise. Across the diamond from Helton is 3rd baseman Garret Atkins who saw significant drops in every major offensive category last season. He’s only 29 years old however, so a return to his 2006 form (.329 Avg, 120 RBI) is not merely a thin air induced hallucination.

The double-play combination of Tulowitzki and Clint Barmes might be among the league’s most offensively and defensively stellar pairs. Or they might be a nightmare for Rockies fans. Tulowitzki’s sophomore campaign was slow out of the gate and de-railed by injuries. Barmes grabbed hold of the 2nd base job last year by hitting .290. This after consecutive sub-.220 seasons left him without a big league job.

Catcher Chris Iannetta had a breakout 2008 campaign stroking 18 homers in about 400 plate appearances. Continued pop from behind the plate will help alleviate the offensive pain caused by the fact that left field is now an open competition between young players (Seth Smith and Carlos Gonzalez) and low-ceiling veterans (Scott Podsednik and Matt Murton). Brad Hawpe, who, like everyone else, experienced a drop in his power numbers last season, returns to play right field. Hawpe and centerfielder Ryan Spilborghs will be counted on heavily to create runs this season.

Outfield prospect Dexter Fowler may get a look from the big league club this spring or merit a promotion early in the season. Described by one publication as “one of those players about whom, the second he takes the field, the first thing you say to yourself is ‘I want me one of those!” Fowler slugged an impressive .515 in double-A last season and has speed capable of stealing 20+ bases in the major leagues.

It must also be noted that Sal Fasano is in Rockies camp trying for a backup catching job. Anyone who has seen him in Baltimore, Philadelphia, or any of his other big league stops knows why that is, if nothing else, amusing.






Overall

Even as the Manny Ramirez circus has died down somewhat after the braided slugger signed his name on a 2 year contract, the NL West remains a wide open division. Even with off season upgrades by the Giants and Dodgers, there is not enough talent in this division to rule out a competitive season in 2009 for Colorado. Nobody saw the 2007 run coming. 2009 could be another memorable one in Denver.

Prediction

It won’t be. By the trading deadline, Hawpe, Atkins, and Cook may well be in new lowland homes and Hurdle may end up a mid-season casualty of a front office looking to scapegoat. 71-91. 4th Place NL West.