The American League Champs

Did anybody see that coming? Tampa Bay Rays: AL Champions. It rolls off the tongue nicely.

Not only did the baseball world not see the Tampa Bay Rays’ worst-to-first 2008 season coming, most residents of Tampa did not see the miracle turnaround as it was happening. On July 6, 2008, only 20,587 fans turned out to watch their first place Rays throttle Kansas City and extend their lead over 2nd place Boston to a full 5 games. By comparison, the dreadful Nationals drew 28,000 people that same day for a tussle with the lowly Reds, The pitiful Orioles gated 22,000 for a slugfest with the hapless Rangers, the floundering Rockies were viewed by more than 27,000 fans that day.

For the season, the Rays only averaged 22,259 fans in attendance at each game. That was good for 26th in baseball. On average, 47.2% of the seats in Tropicana Field were empty for Rays games. That’s a lot.

We can forgive everyone’s reluctance to get behind the suddenly successful Rays. 10 straight losing seasons to begin a franchise’s life can make anyone skeptical. And by the time the playoffs rolled around, Tampa fans admirably filled Tropicana Field.

Will they still show up in large numbers this season? Will support for the Rays be a one year bandwagon (half year to be exact)? Or is baseball here to stay in Tampa?

The answer to those questions may well hinge upon the performance of this year’s team. If last season was the most important season in the history of the franchise, this season now becomes the most important for the present and future of baseball in Tampa.

The good news, then, for newly christened Rays fans is that last years pennant winners are almost entirely back in tact for their AL title defense. Uber-phenoms David Price and Evan Longoria have their first full season ahead of them. Young pitchers have post-season experience already under their belts. None of the truly essential pieces of last year’s team have jumped ship.

Pitching:

Scott Kazmir missed several weeks of action in 2008, making only 27 starts. He has gone over 200 innings only once in his career. When he’s healthy, he is as dominant as any pitcher in baseball today. When he’s hurt and sitting in the dugout, he’s no more helpful than Jorge Julio. Kazmir is 25 years old and immensely talented. The more his body allows him to show off that talent, the easier sustained success will become for the Rays.

Kazmir is joined in the Rays rotation by soon to be household name James Shields. Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, and, if all goes according to plan, October standout David Price will round out a young and exciting starting staff. Barring injury, the rotation will be young, seasoned by postseason experience, and increasingly unhittable. James Shields is the rotation’s senior statesman, and he’s 27. That should terrify fans of other AL East teams.

The bullpen, apart from the Game 5 meltdown against Boston in the ALCS dominated hitters well into the month of October. The burning bullpen question going into the 2009 season remains the role of closer. Troy Percival’s season ended well before the Rays’ season came to a close. Closer by committee took the Rays to the World Series, but, Percival’s presence at the back of the bullpen was missed. His ability to return this season and provide a steadying back of the bullpen force would certainly be reassuring to Rays fans.

The Offense.

The Rays may have made the offseason’s savviest signing when they inked Pat Burrell to a 2-year contract. “Pat the Bat” adds right-handed punch to last year’s lefty-heavy lineup. Burrell slugged 33 homers last season as the Phillies’ left fielder. As Tampa’s full-time DH, his defensive shortcomings won’t ever be on display, an added bonus. Burrell’s arrival should fill the gap left by Cliff Floyd’s free agent flight to San Diego.

Carlos Pena (.871 OPS) is back. Jason Bartlett is back. Aki Iwamura (91 Runs scored), Dionar Navarro (.295 BA), and Carl Crawford (career .293 hitter) are back and, in Crawford’s case, finally fully healthy. BJ Upton (44 SB) has another season of hitting big league pitching under his belt. Evan Longoria (.874 OPS) has a season of experience now. This is not the 1927 Yankees. But, there is no reason to suspect that the 2009 incarnation of the Rays will fail to improve on last season’s 4.78 runs per game performance. A healthy Carl Crawford and the addition of Burrell should help this year’s Rays to put runs on the board.

Beyond the starters, Willy Aybar (.949 OPS in the postseason), Matt Joyce (acquired from the Tigers for Edwin Jackson), and Gabe Kapler (.838 OPS last season) provide pop off of the bench.


What to Look For

The 2008 Rays exuded team chemistry. From manager Joe Maddon’s highly publicized willingness to sport a “Ray-Hawk,” to the manner in which the team rallied to overcome a meltdown loss in Game 5 of the ALCS, it was clear that the 2008 Rays liked each other, believed in the concept of team preached by management, and were united in the common pursuit of the franchise’s first championship.

Last year the Rays showed everyone that they, as a team, enjoyed winning. With the arrival of top prospects at the big league level, the continued big league maturation of top-tier talent, and the arrivals of the Slugging Burrell and the valuable Joyce and Kapler, the 2009 Rays should be even better than their 2008 counterparts.

There are no certainties in baseball. But, both the numbers and the observations of the trained eye seem to scream that continued success is inevitable in Tampa.

With this lineup returning, what can go wrong?

Player AVG/OBP/SLG
1B- Carlos Pena .247/.377/.494
2B- Aki Iwamora .274/.349/.380
3B- Evan Longoria .272/.343/.531
SS- Jason Bartlett .286/.329/.361
LF- Carl Crawford .272/.319/.400
CF- BJ Upton .273/.383/.401
RF- Gabe Gross/Matt Joyce .242/.333/.434 and .252/.339/.492
C- Dionar Navarro .295/.349/.407
DH-Pat Burrell .250/.367/.507

Starting Pitchers
Scott Kazmir 1.27 WHIP and 9.8 K per 9 innings
James Shields 1.15 WHIP and consecutive seasons of 215 IP
Matt Garza 1.24 WHIP and 3.70 ERA
Andy Sonnanstine 1.29 WHIP and 3.35/1 K/BB ratio
David Price. Did you watch the postseason?

Bullpen
Dan Wheeler 0.99 WHIP
JP Howell 1.13 WHIP
Troy Percival 28 Saves
Grant Balfour 0.89 WHIP


The official baseballbreaksyourheart.com prediction: 94 wins 68 losses. 1st place in AL East.


Editorial Note:

My initial plan was to begin the 2009 season previews with the four teams who appeared in last years League Championship Series. However, as the Manny Ramirez saga in Los Angeles continues to drag on, the Dodgers season preview has been put on hold until the corn-rowed elephant has either left the room or agreed to hang around and play by the rules.

Thus, tomorrow we will look at the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers will have to wait for later this month.