The Home of the Braves

In 1988 the Atlanta Braves were locked in a season long struggle with my Baltimore Orioles for the worst record in baseball. Call it misery loving company, but, I took a liking to the Braves then and was rewarded soon thereafter with the right to claim casual fanhood of the team of the 90s.

I appreciate that Andrew Kozakowski took time out from his busy schedule of recruiting Guatemalan mercenaries to contribute to the blog. I once watched him shred by hand several dozen copies of the school newspaper in a fit of nervous anxiety brought on by a Braves NLDS game against the Astros. Caring about baseball teams makes us all do very strange things.



Hope springs eternal

A third straight year of missing the playoffs brought disappointment to most Braves fans after enjoying fourteen years of supremacy in the NL East. The failures of last year stood in stark contrast to the dominant Atlanta teams of the nineties, namely, strong pitching. Although all-star level seasons in some position players were cancelled out by regression in others, the complete collapse of the starting rotation and bullpen doomed the Braves’ shot at even competing for the wild card. GM Frank Wren spent the offseason working to address Atlanta’s shortcomings, and although it was a roller coaster ride thanks to the Jake Peavy, A.J. Burnett, Rafael Furcal, and Ken Griffey Jr. negotiations, the outcome is a Braves team that is in a position to pose a strong challenge to the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies both this year and in the years to come.

Pitching

Going into this offseason, Frank Wren looked to upgrade a pitching staff that was decimated by injuries last year. A potentially formidable rotation last year fronted by aces John Smoltz and Tim Hudson and filled with a mix of reliable (Tom Glavine), promising (Jair Jurrjens), live (Jo-Jo Reyes), and expensive (and need I say, perpetually broken - Mike Hampton) arms succumbed to a variety of injuries. This left the rookie Jurrjens and Mexican League surprise Jorge Campillo holding down the fort for the second half of the year in a poor man’s version of “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain”. Needless to say, this placed a fair amount of strain on a bullpen that was dealing with its own injuries. The Braves saw the closer’s role passed around like a hot potato while 2007 stalwarts Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, and Peter Moylan battled injuries. Despite the loss of Braves mainstay John Smoltz this offseason, Wren largely succeeding in upgrading the team’s biggest weakness.

(Top Five Starting Pitchers in 2008 – by IP)
Player Record GS IP K ERA WHIP ERA+ SNLVAR
1. J. Jurrjens 13-10 31 188.3 139 3.68 1.37 116 4.1
2. J. Campillo 8-7 25 158.6 107 3.91 1.24 109 3.2
3. T. Hudson 11-7 22 142.0 85 3.17 1.16 134 4.5
4. J. Reyes 3-11 22 113.0 78 5.81 1.65 73 1.1
5. C. Morton 4-8 15 74.6 48 6.15 1.62 69 0.4


Wren was very active addressing the need for starting pitching via trades and free agency. After a trade for Jake Peavy fell through, the Braves succeeded in acquiring Javier Vazquez from the White Sox for catcher Tyler Flowers (a good prospect to be sure, but not one of the elite of Atlanta’s farm system). Recognizing that even with Vazquez, the Braves would have trouble staying competitive in the NL East, Wren sought help on the free agent market. Derek Lowe signed with the Braves after A.J. Burnett (luckily) spurned the Braves’ advances and signed with the Yankees. In addition, they added Japanese starter Kenshin Kawakami to provide innings at the back of the rotation. With Lowe and Vazquez up front, Jurrjens as a three, and Kawakami, Glavine, Campillo, star prospect Tommy Hanson, and eventually Tim Hudson rounding out the back of the rotation, the Braves should have more than enough depth and talent to make a run at both the division and wild card. Although no individual in the Braves’ rotation stacks up to the Phillies’ Cole Hamels or the Mets’ Johan Santana at this point in time, the rotation as a whole is one of the deepest in the league and compares favorably to the rotations of their top competitors.

(Projected Starting Rotation – 2008 stats used)
Player Record GS IP K ERA WHIP ERA+ SNLVAR
1. D. Lowe 14-11 34 211.0 147 3.24 1.13 131 6.9
2. J. Vazquez 12-16 33 208.3 200 4.67 1.32 98 3.3
3. J. Jurrjens 13-10 31 188.3 139 3.68 1.37 116 4.1
4. K. Kawakami* 9-5 20 117.3 112 2.30 1.06 --- ---
5a. T. Glavine 2-4 13 63.3 37 5.54 1.64 77 0.9
5b. J. Campillo 8-7 25 158.6 107 3.91 1.24 109 3.2
5c. T. Hanson** 11-5 25 138 163 2.41 0.99 --- ---

*Numbers from Chunichi Dragons, Central League, NPB

**Numbers from Carolina and Southern Leagues (A+, AA)

Unlike the rotation, Wren largely left the bullpen alone. This is in mostly due to a number of key relievers returning from serious injuries as well as several promising arms coming up through the minors. Gonzalez, Soriano, and Moylan should all play significant roles setting up and closing games after returning from injuries. Blaine Boyer, Manny Acosta, a LOOGY or two, and whoever fails to make the starting rotation (in all likelihood Jorge Campillo and quite possibly Tommy Hanson in early summer) should round out a bullpen that is much stronger than the previous year’s. Add in the improved starting pitching, and it is highly likely that the bullpen will not be overstretched as it was last year and what was one of the Braves’ biggest weaknesses should now be a strength.

Position Players

With the overhaul to the pitching staff completed, the key to the 2009 season may rest on whether or not the Braves receive any production from the outfield after their infield carried the team last year. Chipper Jones turned in one of his best years in 2008, albeit with time missed due to the numerous injuries that continue to crop up. He should continue to provide MVP-caliber production while healthy, and the Braves have solid backups in Omar Infante and Martin Prado to cover while he’s injured. Brian McCann proved that he is one of the best young catchers in the Majors and barring injury, should continue to put up all-star caliber seasons for years to come. Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson both put up solid, if unspectacular seasons and should continue to provide above average support to the Braves’ offense. The only infield question mark is Casey Kotchman, who was the primary return for Mark Teixeira at last year’s trading deadline. Kotchman struggled upon his arrival in Atlanta, but should return to the high on-base percentage, relatively low power form that he displayed out in Anaheim. As a unit, the Braves’ infield can come close to matching the production of their NL East competitors, who all have some weaknesses of their own.

As for the outfield, an injury to Matt Diaz and the massive collapse of Jeff Francoeur left the Braves with one of the least productive outfields in all of baseball last year. Despite the free agent market being flooded with solid to all-star caliber left fielders, Frank Wren largely stood pat. After failing to sign Rafael Furcal (which would have moved Kelly Johnson to left field) and Ken Griffey Jr., the Braves signed the declining Garret Anderson to a relatively small deal. While it would have been nice to see the Braves sign either Bobby Abreu (signed with the Angels for $5 million plus incentives) or Adam Dunn (signed with the Nationals for $8 million this year, $12 million next) and move to the head of the class in the NL East, the outfield should still be an improvement from last year. A Garret Anderson and Matt Diaz platoon, if used correctly, should provide average production in left. Highly regarded prospect Jordan Schafer may win the starting center field job out of spring training or take over later in the summer from Josh Anderson. Right field should improve almost by default; Francoeur will be hard pressed to play much worse than he did in 2008 and is still young and talented enough to greatly improve.

(Projected Starters - 2008 numbers)
Position Player AB AVG OBP SLG HR VORP
C B. McCann 509 .301 .373 .523 23 52.0
1B C. Kotchman 525 .287 .328 .410 14 6.7
2B K. Johnson 547 .287 .349 .446 12 28.1
3B C. Jones 439 .364 .470 .574 22 75.9
SS Y. Escobar 514 .288 .366 .401 10 25.8
LFa G. Anderson 557 .293 .325 .433 15 14.9
LFb M. Diaz 135 .244 .264 .304 2 -7.1
CF J. Schafer* 297 .269 .378 .471 10 1.8
RF J. Francoeur 599 .239 .294 .359 11 -16.9
Util O. Infante 317 .293 .338 .416 3 10.2
Util M. Prado 254 .320 .377 .461 2 16.7

*Numbers from the Southern League (AA)

Outlook

When all put together, the Braves’ position players should provide slightly above average production with a reasonable possibility to produce even more. This should be more than enough support for a much improved pitching staff. The Braves should easily be above .500 this year with a shot at reaching 90 wins depending on how things go both in the back of their rotation, the health of their stars, and their outfield.

All told, are they the class of the division? No. That title belongs to the world champion Phillies, though with this past offseason improvements, the Mets may also lay claim to the title of best in the NL East. But as things are, neither of those teams are without their flaws and with this past offseason, the Braves have put themselves into a position where they can take advantage of any mishaps or mistakes by either team and emerge as the surprise division winner. Even failing that, they’ll easily compete for the wild card.