And its not that the Nationals have underachieved. An objective look at each season’s roster reveals 4 teams which were not built with winning major league baseball games in mind.
2005: Livan Hernandez and Esteban Loiza each post their 2nd best season (in terms of IP and win totals) at the top of the rotation. Career high in wins for John Patterson. Career years for closer Chad Cordero, journeyman reliever Hector Carrasco, and setup man Luis Ayala. Those statistical aberrations from the pitching staff masked the fact that the offense was a motley assortment of washouts including but not limited to: Jeffery Hammonds, Carlos Baerga, Wil Cordero, Vinny Castilla, Junior Spivey, and Deivi Cruz.
(You want to know the sick part? I have really really really fond memories of that team.)
2006: 46 Homeruns off of the bat of recently-acquired Alfonso Soriano provided some pop to an otherwise impotent offense. The pitching staff came back down to earth. Livan Hernandez was shipped to Arizona at the trading deadline, Ramon Ortiz, the only Nationals starter to tally double digit wins leaves town at the end of the season.
2007: After getting nothing in return for the departed Soriano, the Nationals enter the season full of holes. “Ace” John Patterson is dreadful at the start of the season, gets sent to the DL, and then off into the sunset of retirement. The team closes RFK Stadium with a whimper.
2008: With no real staff ace on the roster, Odalis Perez draws the assignment for the Nats opening game in their bright new ballpark. A walk-off homerun by Ryan Zimmerman proves to be the highlight of the season. Injuries cripple the team. The team lead for homeruns at the end of the season has hit 14. The Nationals finish with the worst record in baseball.
Adding insult to injury, damning offseason revelations emerge tying the Nationals front office to bonus-skimming scams in the Dominican Republic. In the chaos, GM Jim Bowden resigns, still proclaiming his innocence. As the season rolls on, and more details from the scandal emerge, the Nationals may well be last in the standings and last in positive press coverage.
Reasons to be Optimistic
Cristian Guzman had a fantastic season in 2008. His putrid performance in 2005 and injury-ruined seasons in the interim seemed like distant memories as Guzman provided occasional moments of offensive spark and defensive competence last season. As the Nationals everyday shortstop, he will have the chance to show that his All-Star season of a year ago was not a fluke.
Adam Dunn has hit at least 40 homers for five straight seasons. He will play left field and bat cleanup and provide much needed pop to a Nationals lineup that in 2008 had to look to Willy Harris (All 5’9 175lbs of him) for power.
There is no reason to doubt that Ryan Zimmerman will be 100% healthy and ready to go opening day. He is the cornerstone of the franchise and his work in the #3 spot in the lineup and his slick glove work at the hot corner make him a good “face of the team.” This could be the season that Zimmerman becomes an all-star.
Several of the young arms that will be called upon to pitch major innings in 2009 showed signs of promise in 2008. John Lannan, the likely opening day starter in the mound, posted a sub-4.00 ERA last season. Joel Hanrahan, the closer, also posted a sub-4.00 ERA and struck out more than a batter per inning.
Before departing in ignominy, Jim Bowden brought in Daniel Cabrera and Scott Olsen to fill the middle of the starting rotation. Both have the potential to win 12-15 games. Their shortcomings can wait until the next section.
Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes will patrol centerfield and rightfield respectively. They have each shown flashes of brilliance in their checkered careers. If they stay out of clubhouse controversy and. Most importantly, stay out of police patrol cars, there is enough talent in the Dukes/Milledge combo to provide Natinoals Park’s paying customers with a whole summer of excitement.
Jesus Flores hit the ball with authority with some frequency in 2008. If healthy for 2009, his power numbers (8 HR and 59 RBI in about 300 PA) should go up. Also, he won’t turn 25 until the week of the World Series. His best years are still to come.
Cause for Concern
Daniel Cabrera is in the starting rotation. Ask any of your friends who are Orioles fans why this promises to be a maddening experience for fans inside the DC Beltway.
Several of the key components of the offense, Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, and Cristian Guzman have shown a penchant for season-long or other extended stints on the Disabled List.
John Lannan is the ace of the staff. He has 11 major league wins to his credit.
Odalis Perez decided that the Nationals were not showing him the level of respect he deserved and opted not to show up for training camp. He was promptly released.
Adam Dunn hit under .240 last year.
There are a grand total of zero members of the Nationals organization in the top 55 of Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 100 Prospects.
The Nationals = The Oakland Raiders of MLB
"Hey, dawg. It's on, dawg. You dead, dawg. I ain't even bulls-------. Your kids too, dawg. It don't even matter to me who is in the car with you. N-----, all I know is, n-----, when I see your m-----f------- a-- riding, dawg, it's on. As a matter of fact, I'm coming to your m-----f------ house."
(Elijah Dukes to the mother of one of his children)
Overall
The 2009 Nationals do not look drastically different than any of their bottom-feeding progenitors. If one is to blame the GM for putting together a lousy product each season, then Nationals fans should greet Bowden’s departure with jubilation. If organizational chaos is also a bad thing, that jubilation will be short lived.
Adam Dunn’s arrival helps. But, as we learned in 2006, one power bat does not equal many more wins when the arms and the other bats are simply not on the level of the competition in the fierce NL East.
60-102 Last in the NL East
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