Griffey's Back in Town

You know a franchise has hit rock bottom when someone can say "Man, they really got swindled by the Orioles."

From the very bottom of my heart. Thanks, Seattle, for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Tony Butler, Kam Mickolio, and Chris Tillman. Really. Thank you. That was big of you.

I forgot the above information when I offered Paul Campbell the chance to forget about his Georgetown Basketball induced troubles for awhile and write about his beloved Seattle Mariners. "The inherent problem," he explained to me, "is that you assume that shifting attention from the Hoyas to the Mariners is an upgrade." Well said. I think in his write-up Paul has skillfully captured the absurdity which is caring about a losing team. I should know. Its been 11 years and counting in Charm City...

Enjoy!


2008 in Review:

Alright, the AL West is down this year. We won 88 games in 07, maybe this is the year the M’s put it back together. Erik Bedard cost a lot of talent, but (King) Felix Hernandez and Bedard will make a great 1-2 combo.

Oh dear.

Oh no.

No, no, no.

Can this get any worse?

Oh, look, Bedard’s hurt again.

Oh my god, it can get worse.

$100 million on payroll.

100 losses.

HISTORY!

Maybe we can get the 2009 #1 draft pick.

THE NATS WERE ONE GAME WORSE??? WE CAN’T EVEN LOSE RIGHT.

Baseball sucks.

[fin]

Mariners’ fans only bright spot of the 2008 season came in interleague play on June 23, when King Felix, in his only plate appearance of the season, took a first-pitch fastball to the opposite field for a grand slam off Johan Santana at Shea. Fittingly, Hernandez would leave the game in the fifth inning with an injury and miss his next start.

The Mariners were plagued by the continuing collapse of Richie Sexson, whose saga came to an end with his July 10 release. Catcher Kenji Johjima didn’t fare much better, putting up an anemic .227/.277/.332 line that suggests his career may be firmly situated in a decline stage at the age of 32. Offensively the only bright spot was Raul Ibanez (.293/.358/.479), whose offensive value was significantly mitigated by his atrocious range in the field. UZR pegged him at 12 runs below average for the season.

The pitching staff was somehow even more aggravating than the lineup. Eleven different starters took the mound for Seattle, only two of which had above league-average seasons. One of those pitchers, Erik Bedard, only managed 15 starts and 81.0 innings in an injury-riddled season, an attempt to shred whatever might have been left of now-former GM Bill Bavasi’s reputation. Felix Hernandez had one of the better 9-11 seasons you’re likely to find. Miguel Batista (7.93 tRA), Carlos Silva (5.92), and Jarrod Washburn (5.72) all had the type of seasons that make you wonder why they were ever given multi-year contracts, and Silva’s was in the first year of a 4/$48M deal that will be haunting Safeco Field for a long time.

2008-2009 Offseason

In:

1B Mike Sweeney

IF Ronny Cedeno

SP Garrett Olson

RP David Aardsma

?P Tyler Walker

IF Reegie Corona

?P Jose Lugo

OF Endy Chavez

?P Jason Vargas

IF Mike Carp

OF Ezequiel Carrera

?P Maikel Cleto

OF Franklin Gutierrez

IF Chris Shelton

IF Russell Branyan

“OF” Ken Griffey Jr.

Out:

RP J.J. Putz

RP Sean Green

OF Jeremy Reed

2B Luis Valbuena

IF Tug Hulett

UT Willie Bloomquist

Unsurprisingly, when a team loses 101 games with a $100 million+ payroll, ownership will change some things up. The 2008 season started with Bill Bavasi at GM and John McLaren at manager. Bavasi was terminated June 16. Three days later McLaren was let go. Lee Pelekoudas and John Riggleman couldn’t show improvement as interim GM and manager respectively and were not retained at the end of the season. After a long search, club management announced Jack Zduriencik, formerly of the Milwaukee Brewers, as GM. GMZ’s first major move brought Oakland bench coach Don Wakamatsu to Safeco as the new manager and with that an overhaul of the team was in place.

If anything, GMZ’s first offseason showed a new understanding of how to evaluate players, focusing on their defensive contribution. Last year’s pitching staff was probably not as bad as their ERAs would indicate, but mediocre outfield defense deflated their numbers. Bringing in Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez, two outfielders who don’t bring big bats to the plate but provide huge value with the glove, should see serious time this year, while Raul Ibanez will “patrol left field” in Philadelphia, leaving Phillies fans to enjoy a favorite pastime of Mariners fans, debating whether Ibanez or a drunk gorilla has better range and instincts in the outfield. Enjoy that multi-year deal, Phils fans.

Of course no preview would be complete without mentioning Ken Griffey Jr.’s return to Seattle. For all the ticket and merchandise sales the Junior signing will doubtlessly generate, it’s important to point out that this is not even close to the same Griffey who left after the 1999 season. A series of injuries have stripped Griffey of much of his speed and range, and his inability to hit left-handed pitching makes him an ideal DH platoon candidate. But as I wrote in an email to a friend after the signing, “I don’t care if he’s terrible and everything rational says it was a bad signing, he’s Ken Griffey Jr. and he’s a Mariner again and that’s how it should be.”

2009 Roster

The Mariners are clearly going to experience yet another re-building year, yet Zduriencik’s moves give reason to believe that the team’s new approach could pay dividends. In 2010. The woeful ineffectiveness of Richie Sexson has been replaced by what is projected to be a serviceable platoon of Russell Branyan and Chris Shelton, while a Chavez-Ichiro!-Gutierrez outfield would be a welcome defensive upgrade over the horrific Ibanez-Ichiro!-Bra d Wilkerson debacle that kicked off 2008. When a team finishes 40 games below .500, it’s hard to prioritize improving offense, pitching, or defense—the Mariners desperately need help in all three areas.

2009 Lineup (with projections)

C-R Kenji Johjima - .260/.310/.395 (400 PAs)

C/DH/1B-L Jeff Clement- .250/.330/.430 (300 PAs)

1B-L Russell Branyan- .235/.330/.450 (350 PAs)

1B/DH-R Chris Shelton- .260/.340/.450 (350 PAs)

2B Jose Lopez- .280/.320/.410

SS Yuniesky Betancourt- .280/.310/.390

3B Adrian Beltre- .270/.330/.460

LF Endy Chavez- .275/.320/.370

CF/RF Ichiro!- .310/.360/.400

RF/CF Franklin Gutierrez- .255/.320/.410

DH-L Ken Griffey Jr.- .250/.340/.450

2009 Rotation (with projections)

SP-R Felix Hernandez (13-9, 3.70 FIP)

SP-L Erik Bedard (8-6, 3.75 FIP)

SP-R Carlos Silva (8-10, 4.70 FIP)

SP-R Brandon Morrow (8-8, 4.10 FIP)

SP-R Jarrod Washburn (7-11, 4.60 FIP)

The AL West is going to suffer another down year, with Josh Hamilton being the only legitimate offensive star in the league now that Mark Teixeira is on the opposite coast. Unlike 2008, there’s no reason to believe that the Mariners will contend for the division crown unless the Angels and Rangers stumble through the season. There is reason for Mariners fans to be hopeful again. But it’s not likely to pay off this year.

Wholly Optimistic Projection: 75-87, 3rd in the AL West

Want to read more about the tragicomedy that is the Seattle Mariners?

Check out www.ussmariner.com and www.lookoutlanding.com.


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Tomorrow:

Meet the Mets. Meet the Mets. Step right up and beat the Mets?