The Defending Champs

We will begin our tour de force of MLB teams with the defending champions.

A warm mahalo goes to Andrew Hannigan, the most dedicated Phillies fan that I know, for offering up some of his thoughts on the Phillies' upcoming title defense. It was Hannigan who, with his Phillies trailing the visiting Braves by several runs, vented out loud to me in line at the concession stand at Citizens Bank Park in July of last season about the losing habits of "this damn team." 30 minutes or so later, Greg Dobbs smacked a pinch-hit 3-run homerun which sparked the Phillies to a comeback win and launched what turned out to be a championship-capturing run.

Enjoy!


When the Phillies take the field on April 5th, they will largely be the same team that finished 24-6 on its way to winning the 2008 World Series. Despite increasing their payroll by approximately $30 million in the offseason, the only significant roster change is the replacement of Pat Burrell with Raul Ibanez in left field. One would think that returning such a young, yet experienced and accomplished team would merit lofty predictions of success. Um…not quite. Baseball Prospectus predicts that they will finish 87-75, tied for the wild card with the Atlanta Braves, and 5 games back of the first place New York Mets (just seeing that phrase in writing makes me laugh.) Even though BP predicted the rise of the Rays last year, and as much as I hate Joe Morgan's blind dismissal of statistics, I have to disagree with BP on this one. The Fightins finished 92-70 last year despite a team-wide, two and a half month long hitting slump that enveloped the summer and the demotion of not one, not two, but THREE members of their initial starting rotation to prolonged stints in the minors. While a regression is certainly possible, I still think that we have not seen the Phillies play to the best of their abilities for an entire season. Here's how the lineup and rotation should set up for the majority of the season:

1. Rollins ( R/L ) - SS

2. Victorino ( R/L ) - CF

3. Utley ( L ) – 2B

4. Howard ( L ) – 1B

5. Werth ( R ) – RF

6. Ibanez ( L ) – LF

7. Feliz ( R ) – 3B

8. Ruiz ( R ) – C



1. Hamels ( L )

2. Myers ( R )

3. Moyer ( L )

4. Blanton ( R )

5. ?

Kyle Kendrick, J.A. Happ, Chan Ho Park, and top pitching prospect Carlos Carrasco are all competing for that 5th spot this spring (Adam Eaton has been told he is not in the competition – look for him to be released by the end of training.) I think this is a two man battle between Kendrick and Happ. There's no need to rush Carrasco with such capable depth in front of him unless he is absolutely undeniably dominant this spring. Park has shown success in the bullpen, and I believe the Phils signed him intending to use him a long-relief role. Kendrick lost his job last season and was replaced by Happ, and yet people assume Kendrick is the front runner here. I disagree. The Phils did everything they could to keep Happ on the team last year – including him on the post season roster even. I think this is Happ's job to lose.

The only uncertainties in the lineup heading into this spring are the injury recoveries of both Chase Utley and Pedro Feliz. Both are tentatively going to be ready by Opening Day, however, I would not rule out one or both of them staying in Florida for an extra week or two. Look for Eric "Best Beard in Baseball" Bruntlett to start if one of those players goes down, as he did when Jimmy Rollins was hurt last year. Suddenly hot prospect (and Olympian) Jason Donald may even get a chance to start a game or two before heading back to Triple A. If Utley is still recovering at the start of the season, it becomes even more essential that Ryan Howard avoids the same slump that plagued his 2008 first-half.

Other points worth mentioning:

· Brett Myers showed up to camp 30 pounds lighter than previous years. It is also his contract year. Coincidence? Look for Myers to finally put it together for a whole season.

· Cole Hamels was rewarded with a 3 year, $20 million arbitration buyout. Happy Cole Hamels = happy Phillies fans.

· Even with J.C. Romero's joke of a 50 game suspension, the bullpen will be fine, with Madson and Lidge locking down the 8th and 9th. Romero's suspension may even be a blessing, as his arm will be that much fresher late in the year.

Regular Season Prediction: 94-68, 1st place NL East



Coming up tomorrow: Boston