Chris George has done it again. It truly is a shame that he roots for the same team as do all of those pink hat wearing, Varitek loving, baseball ignorant Neanderthals who have made many baseball devotees strongly dislike the Red Sox. Its because of all of those bad fans that someone like Chris will have to fill out all sorts of cumbersome paperwork in order to get into heaven once St Peter finds out he's a Sox fan.
Kidding.
Almost.
--TQ
2009 in Review
On these pixels last March, I made the following prediction: 98-64, AL East Champions, World Series Champions. The Sox fell a little short of that, but put together what to a rational observer was an excellent season: 95-67, good enough for third best in the majors and a playoff bid, but only second best in the division, 8 games behind the Yankees. They were third in runs scored (872) and third in runs allowed (736). The team had six all-stars: Bay, Beckett, Papelbon, Wakefield, Youkilis, Pedroia. But this was a team that started strong, only to fizzle when it counted: 47-30 April, May, June; 48-37 the rest of the way to get passed by the surging Yankees. 56-25 at Fenway. 39-42 elsewhere.
Offensively, the club suffered from some lingering injuries, and stalwarts of the 2004 and 2007 championship clubs simply showed the effects of age. 33 year old David Ortiz had an abysmal first couple months before getting dropped in the order. He would improve as the season went on, but 2009 was his worst season in Boston. 37 year old catcher Jason Varitek, having established the past couple years that his glory days were long past, finally proved that he is incapable of contributing every day. Shortstop was a veritable game of musical chairs. Jed Lowrie (18 starts) broke camp as the starter, but an ice cold bat turned out to be the result of a wrist injury and he spent most of the year on the DL. Julio Lugo (27 starts) ultimately hit better than he had in his previous seasons in Boston (.284/.352/.367 in 37 games). But he was a disaster defensively, and he would be run out of town, traded to St. Louis for a minor league outfielder and cash. Nick Green, whose previous big league appearance had come with Seattle in 2007, was the starter for much of the year (74 starts). He was a decent enough hitter early on, but couldn’t hit his weight after the break, finishing at .236/.303/.366. He did however have an unparalleled knack for the untimely yet spectacular error and led the club in multi-error games. The Sox turned to erstwhile shortstop (2006) Alex Gonzalez, arriving mid-August via trade from the Reds. In 44 games, he brought a modest measure of competence back to the position, both offensively (.284/.316/.453) and with his always stellar glove.
But there were some bright spots too. The acquisition of Victor Martinez from the firesale-ing Indians greatly solidified the catcher position down the stretch, as he hit .336/.405/.507 in 56 games. Jason Bay shined in his first full season in the Fens (.267/.384/.537). Mike Lowell was plagued by injury, but managed to hit .290/.337/.474 in 119 games. And the Sox triumvirate of young homegrown talent – Youkilis (.305/.413/.548), Pedroia (.296/.371/.447, 20 SB), Ellsbury (.301/.355/.415, league leading and franchise record 70 SB).
Pitching wise, it was a tale of extremes. The bullpen was, for the most part, consistently very good, anchored by closer Jonathan Papelbon and fireballing rookie Daniel Bard. Beckett and Lester formed a formidable tandem at the top of the rotation. 42 year old Tim Wakefield started 11-3 and made his first all-star game, only to have a back injury shut him down. Filling in, Clay Buchholz showed signs that his career was back on track. But the back end of the rotation was a mess. Daisuke Matsuzaka was plagued by injuries predating and aggravated by the World Baseball Classic, and started the season 1-5 through 8 starts with an eye popping 8.23 ERA and 2.2 WHIP. He was sharp in 4 late season starts (3-1, 2.22 ERA, 1.397 WHIP), but injury concerns would linger. Brad Penny (7-8, 5.61 ERA, 1.534 WHIP) made it 24 starts before getting released in August amidst a stretch of excruciating ineffectiveness. John Smoltz had hopes of a comeback, but they remained just that: 8 starts, 2-5, 8.32 ERA, 1.7 WHIP, a shellacking at the hands of the Nationals, and one unconditional release. Paul Byrd (6 starts, 1-3, 5.82 ERA, 1.706 WHIP), and Junichi Tazawa (4 starts, 2-3, 7.46 ERA, 2.053 WHIP) were also tried, and failed to stabilize the backend of the rotation.
I have already addressed the ’09 postseason in painful detail, in my earlier Angels preview. They were beaten decisively by a better team; no further autopsy is warranted.
Offseason
In contrast to the previous winter, where the biggest moves were the ones not made, the ‘09-‘10 offseason saw a flurry of activity and great strides forward. A big free agent splash came in December as former Angels ace John Lackey and CF Mike Cameron signed with Boston for 5 and 2 years, respectively. Jason Bay declined the Sox offer (it would later come out that the club had concerns about his knees going forward), and is now the latest in Omar Minaya’s stable of overpriced, aging Mets. Backup OF Jeremy Hermida arrived via trade from the Marlins in exchange for 2 prospects. Brad Mills departed after six seasons as Terry Francona’s bench coach to manage in Houston. Free agent SS Marco Scutaro came to town to replace SS Alex Gonzalez, who left as a free agent. RP Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner also left in free agency, and are now Braves. Backup 1B Casey Kotchman was traded to Seattle for the versatile Bill Hall, and 3B Adrian Beltre was signed to a 1 year deal. Mike Lowell was traded to Texas for a catching prospect, but the deal fell through, and instead he spent his offseason rehabbing a new injury, in this case, surgery on his right thumb ligaments.
2010 Red Sox
All stats are for the complete 2009 season.
Lineup
LF Jacoby Ellsbury .301/.355/.415, 70 SB
2B Dustin Pedroia .296/.371/.447, 20 SB
C Victor Martinez .303/.381/.480, 1 SB
1B Kevin Youkilis .305/.413/.548, 7 SB
DH David Ortiz .238/.332/.462
RF JD Drew .279/.392/.522, 2 SB
CF Mike Cameron .250/.342/.452, 7 SB
3B Adrian Beltre .265/.304/.379, 13 SB
SS Marco Scutaro .282/.379/.409, 14 SB
Bench
C Jason Varitek .209/.313/.390
3B Mike Lowell .290/.337/.474, 2 SB
SS Jed Lowrie .147/.211/.265
INF/OF Bill Hall .201/.258/.338, 2 SB
OF Jeremy Hermida .259/.348/.392, 5 SB
Rotation
RH Josh Beckett 17-6, 3.86 ERA, 1.192 WHIP, 8.4 K/9
LH Jon Lester 15-8, 3.41 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, 10.0 K/9
RH John Lackey 11-8, 3.83 ERA, 1.270 WHIP, 7.1 K/9
RH Tim Wakefield 11-5, 4.58 ERA, 1.442 WHIP, 5.0 K/9
RH Daisuke Matsuzaka 4-6, 5.76 ERA, 1.871 WHIP, 8.2 K/9
Bullpen
CL RH Jonathan Papelbon 1-1, 1.85 ERA, 1.147 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 38 S, 3 BS
SU RH Daniel Bard 2-2, 3.65 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, 11.5 K/9
MR RH Ramon Ramirez 7-4, 2.84 ERA, 1.335 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
MR LH Hideki Okajima 6-0, 3.39 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 7.8 K/9
MR RH Manny Delcarmen 5-2, 4.53 ERA, 1.642 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
LR/SP RH Clay Buchholz 7-4, 4.21 ERA, 1.380 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
Thoughts, Prognostications, and Bold Predictions
On paper this is the best Red Sox team since 2007. It is a team built for a deep playoff run with one of the best rotations in baseball with and a solid bullpen built around, last October’s ALDS not withstanding, one of the preeminent closers in the game. And while there is young talent, even the young guys have been to the promised land already, and along with a solid core of consummately professional veterans, they will keep their composure and not get distracted by matters favored by the chattering classes, such as whether or not contract extensions are going to happen for Beckett and Papelbon.
Offensively there are questions of health and efficacy behind the top four of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Martinez, and Youkilis – they can be counted on to put together an all-star caliber effort year in and year out. David Ortiz remains the biggest question among them. He turns 34 this year, so a return to his 2003-2007 pre-injury prime is wishful thinking. But whether it is ’09 first half (.222/.317/.416) or ’09 second half (.258/.350/.516) Papi that shows up in 2010 is crucial to the club’s success. Someone needs to protect Youk in the lineup, and a healthy Ortiz is still the best candidate to do so. JD Drew never turned into the next Mickey Mantle as a scout projected, though he has always been a solid hitter in his own right when healthy, but that is the key: he has only played 140 games or more 3 times in his decade plus in the majors. Cameron and Beltre represent gambles that should pay off. Cameron is certainly an upgrade over Bay defensively, and while he is unlikely to match Bay’s 2009 production in his advancing years, something resembling a career average performance is essential (.250/.340/.452) – someone needs to drive in runs from the bottom of the lineup. Beltre comes as a bargain after a weak 2009 at the plate, in which he missed some time after taking a ground ball to the unprotected testicles. But healthy again, and still only 30, look for him to perform at or above his career averages (.270/.325/.453), aided by that giant wall in left. Scutaro is a better hitter than anyone that took the field for this club at short in 2009. In short: don’t count me among those panicking. This club will hit.
The club’s greatest strength is its depth, on both sides of the ball. Two of last year’s starters will come off the bench in 2010. While Varitek and Lowell may be past their primes, and in Lowell’s case, hobbled by injury in recent years, they remain excellent clubhouse presences who should produce in limited time. Jed Lowrie still could be the shortstop of the future if his wrist has healed completely and he can pick up where he left off in his promising rookie year (2008). Jeremy Hermida had been a starter in Florida, but should be an excellent addition to this club as a lefty bat off the bench and backing up at the corner outfield spots. Bill Hall has seen time at 2B, 3B, SS, and all three outfield positions, making him a versatile defensive replacement. He won’t replicate the 35 homers he had for Milwaukee in 2006, but he is a good reclamation project offensively for the coaching staff, and hopefully they can get some hits out of him.
And let’s not forget the “problem” of having six starting pitchers. Last year’s injury problems and struggles to find consistent pitching out of the back of the rotation highlight the imperative need for depth here. Beckett/Lester/Lackey are set at the top, forming a 1A/1B/1C combo that is unrivaled. That leaves Wakefield, Matsuzaka, and Buchholz for 2 spots. Manager Terry Francona has already said that it will be a 4 man rotation for the first few weeks, allowing Matsuzaka to recover from back problems that have slowed him this spring. Wakefield will be that fourth starter, at least as long as he stays healthy. He has recovered nicely from last year’s back surgery, and with a new 2 year deal (replacing his prior contract with the infinite one year team options), he will have a chance to secure his place in team history. Wakefield is already 1st on the franchise list in games started (388). He has 189 wins in his career – 175 in Boston – leaving him 17 wins shy of the franchise record (192), held by two pitchers of some repute: Denton True “Cy” Young and Roger Clemens. Healthy, he will break that record before his contract is up. So Buchholz starts the year in the bullpen in lieu of the rubber armed knuckleballer, but the odds of injury occurring to someone being what they are, he will undoubtedly have the opportunity to start some games before the year is over.
In conclusion, an excellent rotation and bullpen will allow this club to win games without out slugging everybody, but this club has the potential to score a lot of runs. This is the deepest roster for a Boston team in a long time, and this depth will allow the club to persevere through inevitable injuries and age related production decline from some formerly key veterans to make a run deep into October.
Baseball Prospectus has the Sox winning the East with a 95-67 record, the same win total they had in 2009. The rotation is better with the addition of Lackey, return to health of Wakefield and Matsuzaka, and subtraction of Penny, Smoltz, et al. A full season of Victor Martinez will lead to greater production at catcher than was had with Varitek starting most of ’09. Cameron + Scutaro > Bay + Green/Lugo/Gonzalez offensively and defensively. And Beltre brings gold glove caliber defense as the everyday third baseman with a big offensive upside. So my expectations are a little higher. My not quite entirely objective assessment for the 2010 Boston Red Sox: 100-62, 1st place AL East, World Series Champions. Hope springs eternal.
And now, I end my ramblings with parting thoughts, courtesy of Adrian Beltre: “It was the first time I was hit. They say I’m crazy not to wear the cup. But I say, if the ball’s going to hit me there every 11 ½ years, I’ll take my chances.”
Final comment from TQ. I just couldn't resist. Adrian Beltre, This Rolling Rock is for you...
U
Friday, March 12, 2010
Thursday, March 11, 2010
The San Francisco Giants
Its kind of amazing how, after several seasons of the Barry Bonds 3-ring circus, the San Francisco Giants managed to park themselves firmly underneath the national baseball radar. With most casual baseball fans unable to name 2 people in their starting lineup, the Giants put together a pretty stellar 2009. Matt Kamenski, who will soon be returning to the Bay Area after a 7 year sabbatical in our nation's capital, was kind enough to put pen to paper to introduce us to the 2010 Giants. A good read!
--TQ
Are the Giants back? Well, it remains to be seen, but their 2009 season seemed to be a step in the right direction.
Long gone are the years of success from the late 1990's and early 2000's - eight straight winning seasons, four postseason appearances, three NL West titles, and a World Series appearance that went to a 7th game in 2002. The Giants haven't been to the playoffs since 2003 (and, I am painfully reminded, haven't won a World Series since moving west to San Francisco in 1958), but they did enjoy their first winning season in in five years in 2009, going 88-74, finishing third in the NL West behind Dodgers and the Rockies. They were in the wild card mix until the final week of the season. Since most of the team is back for 2010, there is plenty of reason for baseball fans to be optimistic in the city by the bay.
The Giants' return to a level of respectability was largely built upon stellar and youthful starting pitching, among the best in Major League Baseball. Tim Lincecum, 25, winner of the past two NL Cy Young Awards, is the clear ace of the staff. He signed a two-year, $23 million contract in the off-season, becoming a deservedly much richer man. Additionally, his long hair and off-season charge of marijuana possession (later dropped) make him a great fit for the liberal culture of San Francisco. If Timmy keeps form and the Giants' offense can do any damage at all, he will have much more than the 15 wins he earned last season. Likewise for Matt Cain, 25, arguably the Giants' second ace who went 14-8 with a 2.89 ERA, not far behind Lincecum's numbers in everything except strikeouts. The 2009 season of Jonathan Sanchez, 27, turned around after his July no-hitter, and he looks like a very promising young gun if he can stay consistent. Hopes are similarly high for Barry Zito, at 31 the veteran of the staff, who for two and a half years was a tremendously overpaid bust, but really came around second half last year. If 20-year old Madison Bumgarner can gain more experience and become the fifth starter, the Giants could have an incredible starting pitching core that could dominate for years to come.
Brian Wilson, also young, especially for a closer, at 27, anchors the bullpen and brings some rock and roll attitude to the club. He has 79 saves for the Giants in the past two seasons, but needs to limit his mistakes and lower his ERA (2.74 ain't bad for a closer, but could be better). Set-up men are plentiful including Jeremy Affeldt (1.74 ERA in 2009), Sergio Romo, and Brandon Medders.
With such strong pitching, the Giants' hitting woes and power outage since Barry Bonds left the team in 2007 have been well-documented. They have been among the league's worst in run production and home runs. It was priority number one for the off-season. However, happy-go-lucky Pablo Sandoval, 23, had a breakout season last year, hitting .330 with 25 HR and 90 RBI. He will continue to be the core of the Giants' offense, and all signs point to another big year. After bouncing around positions last year, he'll play more of third base this year with the acquisition of first baseman Aubrey Huff. I don't have high hopes for shortstop Edgar Renteria, but utilityman Juan Uribe can spell him at times and showed some potential down the stretch. The Giants are also lucky to have back second baseman Freddy Sanchez, whom they acquired from Pittsburgh at the trade deadline last year. As long as Sanchez is healthy, which he was not last year, the Giants hope he can return close to the form that won him the 2006 NL batting title.
Veteran catcher Benji Molina is surprisingly back, and it will be interesting to see if he can mentor a young Buster Posey and pass the torch over the course of the season. The big off-season acquisitions were two veterans, first baseman Aubrey Huff and outfielder Mark DeRosa. While not the big power additions many Giants fans had hoped for, they should be a slight improvement. The Giants have been overly reliant on an unspectacular Aaron Rowand the past few years, and have some young if unproven players to fill out the last position in the outfield.
The Giants did not lose much from their lineup last year, and seemed primed for a playoff push this year. Can the Giants challenge the Dodgers for the NL West title? Possibly, and it would add even more fuel to the fire to an already heated rivalry with a long and illustrious history that stretches across two coasts. I see this team reaching at least 90 wins, and if they can't catch the Dodgers, then a wild card berth could be a very real possibility.
--TQ
Are the Giants back? Well, it remains to be seen, but their 2009 season seemed to be a step in the right direction.
Long gone are the years of success from the late 1990's and early 2000's - eight straight winning seasons, four postseason appearances, three NL West titles, and a World Series appearance that went to a 7th game in 2002. The Giants haven't been to the playoffs since 2003 (and, I am painfully reminded, haven't won a World Series since moving west to San Francisco in 1958), but they did enjoy their first winning season in in five years in 2009, going 88-74, finishing third in the NL West behind Dodgers and the Rockies. They were in the wild card mix until the final week of the season. Since most of the team is back for 2010, there is plenty of reason for baseball fans to be optimistic in the city by the bay.
The Giants' return to a level of respectability was largely built upon stellar and youthful starting pitching, among the best in Major League Baseball. Tim Lincecum, 25, winner of the past two NL Cy Young Awards, is the clear ace of the staff. He signed a two-year, $23 million contract in the off-season, becoming a deservedly much richer man. Additionally, his long hair and off-season charge of marijuana possession (later dropped) make him a great fit for the liberal culture of San Francisco. If Timmy keeps form and the Giants' offense can do any damage at all, he will have much more than the 15 wins he earned last season. Likewise for Matt Cain, 25, arguably the Giants' second ace who went 14-8 with a 2.89 ERA, not far behind Lincecum's numbers in everything except strikeouts. The 2009 season of Jonathan Sanchez, 27, turned around after his July no-hitter, and he looks like a very promising young gun if he can stay consistent. Hopes are similarly high for Barry Zito, at 31 the veteran of the staff, who for two and a half years was a tremendously overpaid bust, but really came around second half last year. If 20-year old Madison Bumgarner can gain more experience and become the fifth starter, the Giants could have an incredible starting pitching core that could dominate for years to come.
Brian Wilson, also young, especially for a closer, at 27, anchors the bullpen and brings some rock and roll attitude to the club. He has 79 saves for the Giants in the past two seasons, but needs to limit his mistakes and lower his ERA (2.74 ain't bad for a closer, but could be better). Set-up men are plentiful including Jeremy Affeldt (1.74 ERA in 2009), Sergio Romo, and Brandon Medders.
With such strong pitching, the Giants' hitting woes and power outage since Barry Bonds left the team in 2007 have been well-documented. They have been among the league's worst in run production and home runs. It was priority number one for the off-season. However, happy-go-lucky Pablo Sandoval, 23, had a breakout season last year, hitting .330 with 25 HR and 90 RBI. He will continue to be the core of the Giants' offense, and all signs point to another big year. After bouncing around positions last year, he'll play more of third base this year with the acquisition of first baseman Aubrey Huff. I don't have high hopes for shortstop Edgar Renteria, but utilityman Juan Uribe can spell him at times and showed some potential down the stretch. The Giants are also lucky to have back second baseman Freddy Sanchez, whom they acquired from Pittsburgh at the trade deadline last year. As long as Sanchez is healthy, which he was not last year, the Giants hope he can return close to the form that won him the 2006 NL batting title.
Veteran catcher Benji Molina is surprisingly back, and it will be interesting to see if he can mentor a young Buster Posey and pass the torch over the course of the season. The big off-season acquisitions were two veterans, first baseman Aubrey Huff and outfielder Mark DeRosa. While not the big power additions many Giants fans had hoped for, they should be a slight improvement. The Giants have been overly reliant on an unspectacular Aaron Rowand the past few years, and have some young if unproven players to fill out the last position in the outfield.
The Giants did not lose much from their lineup last year, and seemed primed for a playoff push this year. Can the Giants challenge the Dodgers for the NL West title? Possibly, and it would add even more fuel to the fire to an already heated rivalry with a long and illustrious history that stretches across two coasts. I see this team reaching at least 90 wins, and if they can't catch the Dodgers, then a wild card berth could be a very real possibility.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Baseball Prospectus Comes to DC
From left to right, Baseball Prospectus writers Matt Swartz, Jay Jaffe, Steven Goldman, Kevin Goldstein, and (barely visible) Clay Davenport.
"I honestly believe that Adam Jones is a better baseball player than Willie Mays." Thus spoke Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus's National Writer on Scouting and Player Development tonight at a book signing event at DC's famed Politics and Prose Bookstore. I regularly attend events there as a part of my recent embrace of my unhealthy affinity for all things books. I've met some memorable authors, heard some amusing stories, listened in awe to people of genius describe what they do and why they do it. But, I've never heard anything like the above declarative. It went like a lightning bolt to the cold recesses of my black and orange soul.
Man. I tell ya. Adam Jones.
Adam Jones the superior of a deity like Mays? To back up this assertion, Mr. Goldstein explained that modern athletes are, by and large, more advanced than their progenitors. Case and point...Jesse Owens' 1936 Olympic gold medal winning track and field times and scores are standard fare now for championship athletes at the High School level. Jones faces pitches (the slider and split-finger) that Mays never saw, endures crazier travel, and faces players drawn from an international talent pool. Put his ability back into the 1950s, and he'd do unbelievable things.
So its not that theres anything particularly impressive about Adam Jones, he's just a part of a modern game in which is bigger, faster and stronger than what our grandfathers watched. (Sorry Baltimore Fans.)
Now that they had my attention, Steven Goldman, the jefe of the Baseball Prospectus team, dove deeper into this point of historical vs modern with a look at Joe DiMaggio's career hitting record. An examination of his team-by-team splits for his career reveals, Mr. Goldman explained, that DiMaggio batted near .450 and slugged almost .900 against the hapless St. Louis Browns over the course of his career. Big deal? Well, before 1961 each league had 8 teams and played 154 games. Divide 154 by 7 and thats how many games each year the Joltin Joe got to play against a team that had, in a good season, Triple-A level talent.
What does that mean? Dunno. but its an interesting way of looking at things. I wonder what Albert Pujols hits against the Pirates.
A question about the fallibility of the statistical projections within their publication elicited the most thorough response of the evening from the Baseball Prospectus panel. A gentleman sporting busness attire and a Yankee cap demanded a satisfactory explanation for the pessimistic forecasts put out in Prospectus over the past two seasons for Yankee captain Derek Jeter. Different men on the panel appraoched the complaint differently. A couple focused on Jeter's status as a statistical outlier, a shortstop who has continued to hit well, and even experienced a spike in numbers, into his mid-to-late 30's. One stressed that if he continues on his track, Jeter's only comparable will be Honus Wagner.
But the most satisfying answer to the question was Goldstein's candid explanation that systems for projecting athletic performance do not account for personal choices, unforeseen events, and even for tragedy. A mathematical model does not know that Jeter drastically altered his offseason workout routine prior to the 09 season. It presumes static human behavior. Similarly, a look at Frank Thomas statistics from the 1990s reveals a long string of eye-catching offensive numbers. But theres an anamoly in 1998; Thomas hit a mere .268. No one saw that coming. The issue, Goldstein explained was that Frank Thomas was going through an awful divorce that season. Not something included in a model for measuring his stats.
Does that void the validity of the Prospectus statistical projections? Certainly not. But like alot of what the assembled cast of writers had to say, it is food for thought.
A few more points
-- While I was getting my copy of the book signed, I asked the panel what they thought the impact on the major league game will be when the United States normalizes relations with Cuba, allowing for the free flow to the big leagues of top Cuban talent. Clay Davenport, one of the writers, told me that he has been playing with models for stats of Cuban stars and his best guess, seconded by Goldstein was that 20 to 30 major league-ready players will flow onto professional rosters as soon as the diplomatic barriers crumble. But let 10 years elapse, and, both men agreed, Cuba will be like the Dominican Republic, pumping out a significant percentage of top big league talent. Food for thought.
-- Several audience questions focused around Nationals' uber-phenom Steven Strasburg. Goldman and Goldstein set the over/under on his arrival at Nationals Park at May 29. I'll take the over. I think the Nats will hold out until about July 4. How would that be for an Independence Day celebration?
(A quick note on things to come. After a doubleheader on Monday in which we ran previews of both the Braves and Rangers, today's post is a break from daily team-by-team previews. On Thursday we will pick back up with the San Francisco Giants, on Friday the Red Sox, and, don't make any weekend plans, the Rays and the Pirates are on their way on Saturday and Sunday.)
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
The Cincinnati Reds...And an Important Announcement
The important announcement comes first.
Tonight, at 7:00, the editors of Baseball Prospectus will be speaking at Politics & Prose Bookstore on Connecticut Ave in DC. For anyone in the area, its an excellent chance to get some insights into the book which annually provides so much insight into the greatest game ever invented. Heres the website for the event.
And now for the Cincinnati Reds. Thanks to Dmitry Zakharov for providing an honest look into the mind of a Reds fan as the 2010 season approaches. This is a quick read and a good read. Enjoy!
--TQ
In their NL Central roundup on Baseball Tonight this week, ESPN’s stable of pundits touched on various dynamics affecting teams, from the presence of Mark McGwire as Cardinals hitting coach to the Cubs’ attempt to get their scoring groove back (from 707 total runs, where it was last season, to the 855 they rung up in ’08). When the time came to talk about the Reds, however, the commentary revolved around a single player, Cuban defector/pitching Messiah Aroldis Chapman. For once, though, this was not simply an instance of The Worldwide Leader in Story over Substance taking the most recent and prominent news item and harping on it to the detriment of more important developments. In the collective psychology of Reds fans, and maybe the team as well, the arrival on the scene of a superstar-in-the-making really does overshadow team-centric developments. Whether Chris Dickerson will be able to take the starting centerfield spot back from Drew Stubbs, or whether first baseman Joey Votto can continue to make progress in his battle with depression, are important issues, to be sure. But how can they compare with the arrival of baseball’s LeBron?
Well, that’s certainly an exaggeration, though the mentality isn’t exactly unique to Cincinnati – how many column inches has the “grasping desperately for a functional business model” Washington Post spent on Stephen Strasburg? In fact, I would argue that this sort of thinking is endemic to teams that have been bad for a long time (the Reds consecutive losing seasons streak now sits at nine), teams where the joys of being a fan are more likely to come from individual breakthroughs than overall team performance. For followers of the Redlegs, “Chappy” is merely this year’s version of Homer Bailey, the previous strong-armed savior of the franchise, whose first full season in the majors last year was decidedly underwhelming (8-5 with a 4.53 ERA) but still an improvement over his disastrous 2008 stint (0-6, 7.93 ERA).
Meanwhile, longtime Reds ace Aaron Harang has been working on adjusting his mechanics with new pitching coach Bryan Price. The money quote from Coach Price: “He was actually detached from the rubber.” That’s what she said. For his efforts, Harang was rewarded by having Dusty Baker announce that he was not guaranteed to start on Opening Day…only to contradict himself and name Harang the starter a few weeks later. Harang, it should be noted, went 6-14 last season and 6-17 the year before. He is also the longest-tenured and highest paid Red, having made $14 million for the 2009 campaign. Meanwhile, Johnny Cueto, who will be second in the rotation to start the season, earned a salary of $418,000 last year. When the pitchers go out to dinner, who do you think picks up the check?
But how will the team do overall? Well, I certainly won’t discount the possibility of a Great Red Leap Forward that results in them seizing the NL Central. However, as I wrote last year, Reds fans would be happy with just some incremental progress, given the relative youth of the team and the much-upgraded nature of the farm system. A winning season might be nice for a change, as would a reason to actually care about games past the Fourth of July. Will it happen? Some of the heavy-duty statistical analyses I’ve seen don’t look particularly promising. Playing in the home-run factory that is the Reds’ home stadium is a wildcard that confounds projections, though. For most pitchers on most teams, multiple home-run games are a nightmare than can shatter their confidence and haunt their dreams. For Cincy starters (and even, gulp, a few relievers), it is an occupational hazard that comes with the territory. How does one account for that mental minefield?
In sum: DO put Jay Bruce on your fantasy team. DON’T put any money on the Reds (or against them, either, unless they’re facing Roy Oswalt). DO expect a win total somewhere from the mid-70s to, at best, the mid-to-high 80s. But DON’T count them out of the playoffs quite yet.
Oh, and most importantly: DON’T listen to anything I have to say. Cheers!
Tonight, at 7:00, the editors of Baseball Prospectus will be speaking at Politics & Prose Bookstore on Connecticut Ave in DC. For anyone in the area, its an excellent chance to get some insights into the book which annually provides so much insight into the greatest game ever invented. Heres the website for the event.
And now for the Cincinnati Reds. Thanks to Dmitry Zakharov for providing an honest look into the mind of a Reds fan as the 2010 season approaches. This is a quick read and a good read. Enjoy!
--TQ
In their NL Central roundup on Baseball Tonight this week, ESPN’s stable of pundits touched on various dynamics affecting teams, from the presence of Mark McGwire as Cardinals hitting coach to the Cubs’ attempt to get their scoring groove back (from 707 total runs, where it was last season, to the 855 they rung up in ’08). When the time came to talk about the Reds, however, the commentary revolved around a single player, Cuban defector/pitching Messiah Aroldis Chapman. For once, though, this was not simply an instance of The Worldwide Leader in Story over Substance taking the most recent and prominent news item and harping on it to the detriment of more important developments. In the collective psychology of Reds fans, and maybe the team as well, the arrival on the scene of a superstar-in-the-making really does overshadow team-centric developments. Whether Chris Dickerson will be able to take the starting centerfield spot back from Drew Stubbs, or whether first baseman Joey Votto can continue to make progress in his battle with depression, are important issues, to be sure. But how can they compare with the arrival of baseball’s LeBron?
Well, that’s certainly an exaggeration, though the mentality isn’t exactly unique to Cincinnati – how many column inches has the “grasping desperately for a functional business model” Washington Post spent on Stephen Strasburg? In fact, I would argue that this sort of thinking is endemic to teams that have been bad for a long time (the Reds consecutive losing seasons streak now sits at nine), teams where the joys of being a fan are more likely to come from individual breakthroughs than overall team performance. For followers of the Redlegs, “Chappy” is merely this year’s version of Homer Bailey, the previous strong-armed savior of the franchise, whose first full season in the majors last year was decidedly underwhelming (8-5 with a 4.53 ERA) but still an improvement over his disastrous 2008 stint (0-6, 7.93 ERA).
Meanwhile, longtime Reds ace Aaron Harang has been working on adjusting his mechanics with new pitching coach Bryan Price. The money quote from Coach Price: “He was actually detached from the rubber.” That’s what she said. For his efforts, Harang was rewarded by having Dusty Baker announce that he was not guaranteed to start on Opening Day…only to contradict himself and name Harang the starter a few weeks later. Harang, it should be noted, went 6-14 last season and 6-17 the year before. He is also the longest-tenured and highest paid Red, having made $14 million for the 2009 campaign. Meanwhile, Johnny Cueto, who will be second in the rotation to start the season, earned a salary of $418,000 last year. When the pitchers go out to dinner, who do you think picks up the check?
But how will the team do overall? Well, I certainly won’t discount the possibility of a Great Red Leap Forward that results in them seizing the NL Central. However, as I wrote last year, Reds fans would be happy with just some incremental progress, given the relative youth of the team and the much-upgraded nature of the farm system. A winning season might be nice for a change, as would a reason to actually care about games past the Fourth of July. Will it happen? Some of the heavy-duty statistical analyses I’ve seen don’t look particularly promising. Playing in the home-run factory that is the Reds’ home stadium is a wildcard that confounds projections, though. For most pitchers on most teams, multiple home-run games are a nightmare than can shatter their confidence and haunt their dreams. For Cincy starters (and even, gulp, a few relievers), it is an occupational hazard that comes with the territory. How does one account for that mental minefield?
In sum: DO put Jay Bruce on your fantasy team. DON’T put any money on the Reds (or against them, either, unless they’re facing Roy Oswalt). DO expect a win total somewhere from the mid-70s to, at best, the mid-to-high 80s. But DON’T count them out of the playoffs quite yet.
Oh, and most importantly: DON’T listen to anything I have to say. Cheers!
Monday, March 8, 2010
Where have you gone, Ted Turner?
Judged by the year-end numbers, the Atlanta Braves' season in 2009 was reasonably successful. Sure, they did not return to the playoffs, but they stuck around in the Wild Card chase into the final week and ultimately finished 86-76. Their pitching staff returned to dominance, finishing fourth in the league in runs allowed per game, and they hit fairly well, good enough for sixth overall. Their Pythagorean Record, based on their runs scored and allowed, shows that the Braves should have finished 90-72, which would likely have resulted in a playoff spot. Over the course of the season, Brian McCann, Yunel Escobar, and Jair Jurrjens continued to show that they are young talents worth building around; Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, and Peter Moylan formed a three-headed monster at the back of the bullpen; Tommy Hanson emerged as a future ace; Martin Prado proved his hitting prowess in a limited call-up the previous year was no fluke; and trade acquisitions Javier Vazquez, Nate McLouth, and Adam LaRoche put up all-star caliber numbers during their time with the Braves.
However, the year-end numbers and overall successes of individual players mask the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde performed of the Braves last year. Their offense was dreadful in the first half, with Jeff Francoeur, Jordan Schafer, and Kelly Johnson hitting a combined .230/.297/.353 and Casey Kotchman and Garrett Anderson barely doing better. GM Frank Wren did a reasonable job addressing these issues in-season, acquiring Nate McLouth and Adam LaRoche to fix the CF and 1B holes, and in-house options Matt Diaz and Martin Prado helped with the OF corners and 2B respectively. Despite these fixes, the damage was already done and a strong second half could not make up for the sub-.500 first half.
This begs the question on why the Braves were in this situation to begin with. Although there was reason for optimism at the beginning of the season, there were plenty of question marks as well. These included whether Francoeur would rebound from a dreadful 2008 season, if Schafer could make the transition to the majors, how much was left in Anderson's tank, and would Kotchman live up to the promise he showed in 2007? The result was the Braves were left hoping that a lot would go right for them, and they had to scramble when nothing panned out.
The Braves could have eliminated a lot of the uncertainty and vastly improved their offense if they had been willing to spend a couple million more last offseason. At the time the Braves were signing Garrett Anderson, two other offensively-gifted, defensively-challenged outfielders were on the market: Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn. Both slugged better and reached base significantly more often, and both were signed relatively cheaply. It is not a stretch to state that if the Braves had signed either one of them, they might have been playing postseason ball last year.
G. Anderson .268/.303/.401, 13 HR, $2.5 million
B. Abreu .293/.390/.435, 15 HR, $5 million
A. Dunn .267/.398/.529, 38 HR, $8 million
It appears what largely kept the Braves from acquiring either player was the need to stay within their budget, a trend becoming a bit more common in the post-Ted Turner years. It may just be skewed memories, but it seems as if the Braves were willing to spend a little bit extra or could make the case to management to go over budget if by doing so they significantly improved their chance at contending for the postseason. They were able to leverage the fact that they played in the eighth largest metropolitan area in the U.S. and had the distinct advantage of playing in one of the largest media markets (due to luck of geography [hundreds of miles from another big league team] and years of TBS reaching a national audience) to consistently have one of the highest payrolls in baseball. This is no more, as they have slowly sunk back to the pack and have had to pass on superior talents to stay within budget. The trend continued this offseason, as the Braves faced a budget crunch and had to trade their best pitcher, Javier Vazquez. All I can say is that I miss the days when the Braves had the flexibility to add or retain the talent they needed to make the postseason, willing to pay a little extra up front to reap millions at the end.
All griping about the Braves’ self-imposed limitations aside, the team is in a good position coming into 2010. The offense should be much improved across the board, a welcome change from 2008 and the first half of 2009. If healthy (a big if when counting on Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus to play 140-150 games), the Braves’ starting eight should range from average to well-above average across the board. The Braves are solid up the middle, with a full season of Nate McLouth in center, Martin Prado and Yunel Escobar forming an underrated duo at second and short respectively, and Brian McCann putting up all-star caliber numbers behind the plate. The corner outfield positions should be drastically improved with Jason Heyward starting in right and Matt Diaz assuming the lion’s share of playing time in left. The key to the Braves’ success in 2010 will be the infield corners, as they need both Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus to return to form (at least to some degree) and stay healthy in order to contend.
Projected Starters:
C B. McCann .281/.349/.486, 21 HR
1B T. Glaus* .264/.366/.472, 16 HR
2B M. Prado .307/.358/.464, 11 HR
3B C. Jones .264/.388/.430, 18 HR
SS Y. Escobar .299/.377/.436, 14 HR
LF M. Diaz .313/.390/.488, 13 HR
CF N. McLouth .256/.352/.436, 20 HR
RF J. Heyward** .323/.408/.555, 17 HR
*Injured in 2009, numbers are averages from 07-09
**Numbers from minor leagues
The Braves bench should be a source of strength in 2010. The team acquired Melky Cabrera in the Javier Vazquez trade, and he’ll be a strong fourth outfielder capable of filling in for any of the starting three and providing excellent defense off the bench. Eric Hinske should provide decent insurance if either Chipper Jones or Troy Glaus miss time in the infield. Omar Infante will likely continue as a super-sub, and David Ross filled in admirably for Brian McCann on his off-days last year and should provide more of the same this year.
Bench Players
C D. Ross .273/.380/.508, 7 HR
4C E. Hinske .242/.348/.432, 8 HR
Util O. Infante .305/.361/.389, 2 HR
OF M. Cabrera .274/.336/.416, 13 HR
The Braves starting rotation was one of the strongest and deepest in the league last year and it should continue to be a strength in 2010. Although they lost Javier Vazquez, who was easily their best pitcher last year, it should be mitigated by a full season of Tommy Hanson and the return of Tim Hudson from Tommy John surgery. Derek Lowe was a relative disappointment last year, eating innings but with a 4.67 ERA, but should rebound closer to his career average ERA. Jair Jurrjens put up another strong season, and though he will likely regress (to the tune of adding about a run to his ERA), he should continue to be another strong pitcher in a deep rotation. Kenshin Kawakami held up fairly well in his Braves debut and is an above average fifth starter.
Starting Pitchers
J. Jurrjens 34 GS, 14-10, 215 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.214 WHIP
D. Lowe 34 GS, 15-10, 194.2 IP, 4.67 ERA, 1.515 WHIP
K. Kawakami 25 GS, 7-12, 156.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.343 WHIP
T. Hanson 21 GS, 11-4, 127.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.183 WHIP
T. Hudson 7 GS, 2-1, 42.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 1.465 WHIP
The bullpen took a bit of a hit this offseason with the departure of the Braves’ two headed closer, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. Between the two aforementioned pitchers and Peter Moylan, Bobby Cox was able to shorten games to six innings. Only Moylan returns, but the addition of Billy Wagner should solidify the closer’s spot and Takashi Saito should help out with seventh and eighth inning duties this year. Kris Medlen performed well after his call-up early last summer and should provide another live arm at the back of the bullpen and in a swing-man’s role. Eric O’Flaherty also pitched well, and earned himself a bigger role in the later innings. Although they lost two of the more dominating relievers that the bullpen has had over the last couple seasons, Wagner and Moylan solidify the back of the pen and Bobby Cox should be capable of mixing and matching the other talents he has on hand to create another strong bullpen in 2010.
Bullpen
CL B. Wagner 1.72 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, 17 G, 14.9 K/9
Set P. Moylan 2.84 ERA, 1.370 WHIP, 87 G, 7.5 K/9
Set T. Saito 2.43 ERA, 1.347 WHIP, 56 G, 8.4 K/9
RP K. Medlen 4.26 ERA, 1.404 WHIP, 37 G, 9.6 K/9
RP E. O'Flaherty 3.04 ERA, 1.243 WHIP, 78 G, 6.2 K/9
The final takeaway: the Braves have an outside shot at winning the NL East and should be considered one of the favorites to win the NL Wild Card. With the exception of the Phillies, the Braves have a deeper lineup than any NL East team and their full rotation, while lacking standout aces like Roy Halladay and Johan Santana, stacks up favorably against others in the division. Barring significant injuries to key talents, the Braves should provide Bobby Cox the ending he deserves – one last trip to the playoffs.
The Texas Rangers
About this time last year, a bearded sage with wisdom beyond his years implored the front office of the Texas Rangers to embrace a basic baseball concept: Preventing the other team from scoring runs is just as important as your own team's ability to dent the scoreboard.
It appears as if someone in Arlington may have decided to heed that wise young man's advice. While some of the Rangers' offseaons moves in preparation for 2010 have bolstered their offense, the organization continues to make great strides in developing a pitching staff that will ensure them of staying competitive for years to come. The first evidence of this exceedingly important development? The Rangers staff finished 4th in the AL last season in run's allowed per game, surrendering just 4.6 per contest.
The pieces are in place for the Rangers to do their characteristic damage to other team's pitching staffs. Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler anchor a potent lineup; and the addition of Vlad Guerrero as the team's DH provides another potentially powerful bat their offense. At least, thats how it looks on paper.
With the Angels noticeably weaker than in previous years, the A's still light on talent, and uncertainties in Seattle, the Rangers may find themselves in season-long contention to a division title.
Pitching
Lets talk about this pitching staff that is the cause for so much optimism. The Rangers did some light offseason wheeling and dealing near the top of their rotation, bringing in Rich Harden on a one-year contract and then shipping veteran Kevin Millwood to Baltimore for Chris Ray. More on Ray to come. Harden has All-Star stuff, for his career he strikes out more than a hitter an inning. The problem with the right-hander is that his arm has shown signs of being made of crate-paper. He made 18 starts last year, making for his healthiest year since 2006. If healthy, he'll help solidify the top of the Rangers' rotation. IF he's healthy.
Righty Scott Feldman emerged last season as the team's unexpected ace. He posted 17 wins, kept his ERA a hair above 4.00 and limited baserunners to the tune of a 1.28 WHIP. His stellar season caught many by surprise, his ability to repeat last year's success is critical to the Rangers fulfilling raised expectations this season. After Feldman and Harden, the only other guaranteed spot in the rotation belongs to Colby Lewis, who signed in the off-season after two eye-catching years pitching in Japan. Lewis has yet to prove that he can consistently get major league hitters out (his career ERA in the bigs is almost 7.00 owing to several unmemorable stints as a reliever prior to his Japanese tour) but the Rangers front office believes he can replicate some of his recent foreign success back in the good ole US of A. The final two rotation slots will be subject to a 4-way spring competition between Brandon McCarthy (7-4 and 4.62 ERA with the Rangers last year), Derek Holland (8-13 with a 6.12 in the bigs last year), Tommy Hunter (9-6 4.10 ERa last year), and Matt Harrison (4-5 with a 6.11). Of those 4, McCarthy is the oldest: He will be 26 on Opening Day. There is still ample time for each of the four to realize their "up-sides."
Closer Frank Francisco pitched an injury-interrupted season last year at the back of the Rangers' bullpen. He probably wishes he'd called it a season in early July. Francisco was lights out for his first two dozen appearances in 2009 but struggled through the season's second half. He returns in 2010 needing to prove that he can indeed get hitters out in tough situations for an entire season. To get the ball to Francisco, the Rangers will rely on CJ Wilson, a lefty who filled in admirably for Francisco at times in 2009, causing many to forget his putrid attempts at closing games in previous years. Offseason addition Chris Ray has not been the same pitcher since major arm surgery ended his 2007 campaign early. He struggled mightily in limited action in Baltimore last year, but, he still has a live arm, which is always enough for a second chance. Lefty Darren Olver returns to the place where his career started and will provide functional long relief. Side-arming Darren O'Day (when was the last time a big league bullpen could boast having TWO guys named Darren?) posted eye-popping numbers in 2009 and will be a key pirece of the Rangers' relief corps.
The Arlington Wrecking Crew
If only all of those longballs that Josh Hamilton hit in the 2008 Homerun Derby actually counted for the team's regular season run total. If only Hamilton had managed to hit as many homeruns in all of 2009 as he did on that amazing night in July 2008 in Yankee Stadium. Hamilton's 2009 was a huge let down (10 homers and 54 RBIs in an injury-abbreviated campaign) and he will likely start 2010 as the Rangers leftfielder, allowing highly-touted youngster Julio Borbon to take over in centerfield. Borbon hit a cumulative .310 in a meteoric rise through the minor leagues, stealing bases and adding occasional pop along the way. Rightfielder Nelson Cruz, last season's unexpected team power source clubbed 33 homeruns in 2009 while driving in a paltry 76 runs (that means over the course of the year, he only drove in 43 guys not names Nelson Cruz. Thats not many). A full season from Hamilton and improvements at the top of the Ranger order should help Cruz improve his run production. Vlad Guerrero's legs have decayed to the point that he won't see much outfield time in 2010. But, there is no denying that the Rangers new acquisition can still hit. He'll see plenty of time as the primary DH.
Catcher for the Rangers has been a revolving door of highly-anticipated prospects who have underwhelmed just about everyone watching with their performances. Jared Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden have the inside track on innings behind the plate in 2010. If either demonstrates a sustained ability to produce in the batters' box, the catching job is theirs.
Looking around the Texas infield should cause most Ranger fans to smile this season. Stat-head types are quick to point out that shortstop Elvis Andrus and 2nd-baseman Ian Kinsler save alot of runs with their plus defense in addition to their stellar offensive production. 3rd baseman Michael Young made no such positive contribution with his glove last year, but, a perennial all-star, he hit for power and average (22 homers, .322 average) in 2009. Chris Davis strikes out alot (150 last season in 419 plate appearances-- you do the math!) but he also hits for power. The number crunchers at Baseball Prospectus seem to think that Davis is headed for a breakout 2010: forecasting 33 homers and 97 RBIs.
Wrapping Up
Last week, Nolan Ryan, now the team's President, told reporters that he believes the Rangers can win 92 games and take the NL West crown. He's not crazy. Such an outcome is certainly within the realm of possibility but, the Rangers offense must stay healthy, and the pitching staff must continue its growth AND stay healthy for 92 wins to be realistic. So, if anyone in Arlington really is taking advice from this blog as I earlier posited: Try to keep Rich Harden's arm attached to his body and make sure the promising young arms get handled properly so they can last an entire season. The all-around talent is there for this team to win alot of games.
It appears as if someone in Arlington may have decided to heed that wise young man's advice. While some of the Rangers' offseaons moves in preparation for 2010 have bolstered their offense, the organization continues to make great strides in developing a pitching staff that will ensure them of staying competitive for years to come. The first evidence of this exceedingly important development? The Rangers staff finished 4th in the AL last season in run's allowed per game, surrendering just 4.6 per contest.
The pieces are in place for the Rangers to do their characteristic damage to other team's pitching staffs. Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler anchor a potent lineup; and the addition of Vlad Guerrero as the team's DH provides another potentially powerful bat their offense. At least, thats how it looks on paper.
With the Angels noticeably weaker than in previous years, the A's still light on talent, and uncertainties in Seattle, the Rangers may find themselves in season-long contention to a division title.
Pitching
Lets talk about this pitching staff that is the cause for so much optimism. The Rangers did some light offseason wheeling and dealing near the top of their rotation, bringing in Rich Harden on a one-year contract and then shipping veteran Kevin Millwood to Baltimore for Chris Ray. More on Ray to come. Harden has All-Star stuff, for his career he strikes out more than a hitter an inning. The problem with the right-hander is that his arm has shown signs of being made of crate-paper. He made 18 starts last year, making for his healthiest year since 2006. If healthy, he'll help solidify the top of the Rangers' rotation. IF he's healthy.
Righty Scott Feldman emerged last season as the team's unexpected ace. He posted 17 wins, kept his ERA a hair above 4.00 and limited baserunners to the tune of a 1.28 WHIP. His stellar season caught many by surprise, his ability to repeat last year's success is critical to the Rangers fulfilling raised expectations this season. After Feldman and Harden, the only other guaranteed spot in the rotation belongs to Colby Lewis, who signed in the off-season after two eye-catching years pitching in Japan. Lewis has yet to prove that he can consistently get major league hitters out (his career ERA in the bigs is almost 7.00 owing to several unmemorable stints as a reliever prior to his Japanese tour) but the Rangers front office believes he can replicate some of his recent foreign success back in the good ole US of A. The final two rotation slots will be subject to a 4-way spring competition between Brandon McCarthy (7-4 and 4.62 ERA with the Rangers last year), Derek Holland (8-13 with a 6.12 in the bigs last year), Tommy Hunter (9-6 4.10 ERa last year), and Matt Harrison (4-5 with a 6.11). Of those 4, McCarthy is the oldest: He will be 26 on Opening Day. There is still ample time for each of the four to realize their "up-sides."
Closer Frank Francisco pitched an injury-interrupted season last year at the back of the Rangers' bullpen. He probably wishes he'd called it a season in early July. Francisco was lights out for his first two dozen appearances in 2009 but struggled through the season's second half. He returns in 2010 needing to prove that he can indeed get hitters out in tough situations for an entire season. To get the ball to Francisco, the Rangers will rely on CJ Wilson, a lefty who filled in admirably for Francisco at times in 2009, causing many to forget his putrid attempts at closing games in previous years. Offseason addition Chris Ray has not been the same pitcher since major arm surgery ended his 2007 campaign early. He struggled mightily in limited action in Baltimore last year, but, he still has a live arm, which is always enough for a second chance. Lefty Darren Olver returns to the place where his career started and will provide functional long relief. Side-arming Darren O'Day (when was the last time a big league bullpen could boast having TWO guys named Darren?) posted eye-popping numbers in 2009 and will be a key pirece of the Rangers' relief corps.
The Arlington Wrecking Crew
If only all of those longballs that Josh Hamilton hit in the 2008 Homerun Derby actually counted for the team's regular season run total. If only Hamilton had managed to hit as many homeruns in all of 2009 as he did on that amazing night in July 2008 in Yankee Stadium. Hamilton's 2009 was a huge let down (10 homers and 54 RBIs in an injury-abbreviated campaign) and he will likely start 2010 as the Rangers leftfielder, allowing highly-touted youngster Julio Borbon to take over in centerfield. Borbon hit a cumulative .310 in a meteoric rise through the minor leagues, stealing bases and adding occasional pop along the way. Rightfielder Nelson Cruz, last season's unexpected team power source clubbed 33 homeruns in 2009 while driving in a paltry 76 runs (that means over the course of the year, he only drove in 43 guys not names Nelson Cruz. Thats not many). A full season from Hamilton and improvements at the top of the Ranger order should help Cruz improve his run production. Vlad Guerrero's legs have decayed to the point that he won't see much outfield time in 2010. But, there is no denying that the Rangers new acquisition can still hit. He'll see plenty of time as the primary DH.
Catcher for the Rangers has been a revolving door of highly-anticipated prospects who have underwhelmed just about everyone watching with their performances. Jared Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden have the inside track on innings behind the plate in 2010. If either demonstrates a sustained ability to produce in the batters' box, the catching job is theirs.
Looking around the Texas infield should cause most Ranger fans to smile this season. Stat-head types are quick to point out that shortstop Elvis Andrus and 2nd-baseman Ian Kinsler save alot of runs with their plus defense in addition to their stellar offensive production. 3rd baseman Michael Young made no such positive contribution with his glove last year, but, a perennial all-star, he hit for power and average (22 homers, .322 average) in 2009. Chris Davis strikes out alot (150 last season in 419 plate appearances-- you do the math!) but he also hits for power. The number crunchers at Baseball Prospectus seem to think that Davis is headed for a breakout 2010: forecasting 33 homers and 97 RBIs.
Wrapping Up
Last week, Nolan Ryan, now the team's President, told reporters that he believes the Rangers can win 92 games and take the NL West crown. He's not crazy. Such an outcome is certainly within the realm of possibility but, the Rangers offense must stay healthy, and the pitching staff must continue its growth AND stay healthy for 92 wins to be realistic. So, if anyone in Arlington really is taking advice from this blog as I earlier posited: Try to keep Rich Harden's arm attached to his body and make sure the promising young arms get handled properly so they can last an entire season. The all-around talent is there for this team to win alot of games.
Sunday, March 7, 2010
The 2005 NL Champs
Mark Smith returns this year with another excellent analysis of the Houston Astros. I will resist the temptation to make unnecessary references here to the 2007 Miguel Tejada trade, for which all of Baltimore remains grateful.
Shoot. Just mentioned it. Sorry Mark.
--TQ
The past decade for Houston was an up and down one to say the least. The Astros started off the decade with their worst season in the Drayton McLane era going 72-90. In the middle of the decade the franchise had some of the best years in franchise history. They won a playoff series for the first time in 2004 and in 2005 won their first National League pennant and played in their first World Series. Since that magical run in 2005, the path the Astros have taken has been a downhill one. During the last year of the decade the Astros went 74-88. There were so many low points in 2009 that it is hard to pick the lowest. Some of them would be: then manager Cecil Cooper predicts 90 wins, Roy Oswalt only winning 8 games and having an ERA over 4, Berkman having one of the worst seasons of his career, being completely out of the race at the trade deadline and not trading for the future, and finally Cecil Cooper getting fired. All of those things are in the past however, and 2010 looks to be a much better year for the Good Guys from Houston.
Coaching
The biggest offseason move Houston made was hiring their 5th field manager in the last 6 years. Some of the notable candidates were Phil Garner, Bob Melvin, Ned Yost, and Manny Acta. The Astros first choice was Manny Acta but he demanded a 3 year contract. Acta had begun his coaching career in the Astros farm system and played and had said managing the Astros was his dream job. Drayton refused to move from a 2 year deal with a club option to 3 years guaranteed and as a result, Manny signed with Cleveland. After this gaffe that became very public, the Astros went in to spin control and hired Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills within a few days. Mills has been highly recommended by Terry Francona and has potential to be a great manager. The clubhouse in Houston became toxic last season with Cecil Cooper in charge and many people are hoping Mills brings a winning atmosphere with him from Fenway.
What might be the second most important hire of the offseason was the hiring of Brad Arnsberg as the pitching coach from the Blue Jays. Arnsberg was the pitching coach in Toronto from 2005 through 2009, during which the Blue Jays ranked second in the league with a team ERA of 3.98. Last year many of the pitchers had little to no confidence in pitching coach Dewey Robinson. It is not surprising that Roy Oswalt had the worst season of his career last year. Arnsberg comes in much respected and has worked with many ace pitchers including Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, and Roy Halladay. Having a competent, respected pitching coach could go a long way in determining how well the Astros do this year.
Catcher
One of the few positions where the Astros are working in some youth is at catcher. One of the players battling for the starting job is current top prospect and former first round draft pick Jason Castro. The other candidate for the job is former top prospect J.R. Towles. Towles burst onto the scene back in 2007 as a September call up and had an 8 RBI game against the Cardinals and all Astros fans thought we finally had a catcher who would hit for the first time since Craig Biggio was a catcher back in 1991. Since that magical night in St. Louis, Towles has a batting average of .149. Astros management is giving Castro every opportunity to start the season in Houston, but if he is deemed not ready, he will return to AAA and surely be called upon later in the year. Penciled in as the backup Humberto Quintero. He is a solid defensive catcher who will not hit much, but won’t play much either.
First Base
Lance Berman is one of the top first basemen in baseball about every other year. Many Astros fans have noticed that over Lance Berkman’s career that he is usually exceptional every even numbered year, and an above average player in odd numbered years. Since the beginning of his career in 1999, his batting average is .292 in odd numbered years, as opposed to batting .307 in even numbered years. He has averaged about 28 home runs in odd numbered years compared to 33 in even numbered years. In odd numbered years he averages 96 RBI’s and in even numbered years he averages 119. Because this year is 2010 Astros fans are hoping that the Big Puma has his typical even numbered year.
Second Base
Kaz Matsui is supposed to be the Astros starting second basemen this year. Last year Matsui set a career high in games played with 132. When healthy, Matusi can be a productive player, unfortunately Kaz is never healthy. Out of 324 potential games as an Astros, Matsui has only played 228 of them. Luckily the Astros have veteran utility men Geoff Blum and Jeff Keppinger to fill in when the fragile Kaz gets hurt. The key to being productive at second though is Kaz staying healthy, which is unlikely. When healthy he is a potential game changer in the number 2 hole.
Third Base
One of the key signings of the Astros this offseason was former Phillies (no surprise) third baseman Pedro Feliz. Feliz is known throughout the game as one of the top defenders at the hot corner. One of the ways the Astros looked to improve the team this offseason was by upgrading the defense. By installing Feliz as the third basemen and rookie Tommy Manzella at shortstop the left side of the infield should be one of the best defensive left sides in the game. While Feliz is not a slugger, he has consistently driven in about 75-80 runs throughout his career. Many think his home run totals will go up as a result of playing at hitter friendly Minute Maid Park.
Shortstop
Another key defensive upgrade for the Astros this offseason was deciding to let Miguel Tejada walk as a free agent and install the slick fielding Tommy Manzella as the starting shortstop. While Manzella is not expected to be anything close to the hitter of Tejada, he is expected to be far better defensively. Astros management has often compared Manzella’s work with the glove to former Astro Adam Everett. Manzella has been ready for the majors defensively for years; however his hitting leaves some doubt as to whether he will be able to stick in The Bigs. Even though technically he is replacing All Star shortstop Miguel Tejada, it can be seen as he is replacing Geoff Blum in the infield. Coupled with the signing of Pedro Feliz, Astros management is hoping that Feliz can make up for the runs that Miggy was responsible for, and let Manzella tighten up the defense up the middle.
Outfield
Last year, one of the few bright spots for the Astros was the outfield. Leftfielder Carlos Lee had a down year by his standards but still managed to drive in 100 runs, bat .300, and hit over 25 home runs. Hunter Pence took a step forward in his development and became an All Star last year. Michael Bourn went from being one of the worst hitters in baseball in 2008 to being the Astros team MVP in 2009. Bourn also won a Gold Glove and led the National League with 61 stolen bases. If Lee can return to top for and hit around 35 home runs and drive in his usual 120 RBI’s the Astros will be in good shape. Bourn needs to continue in his progression as a game changer at the top of the line up, and Hunter Pence needs to continue to improve at the rate he is currently. This is by far the strongest position on the team and the Astros are expecting a lot of their offensive output to come from these 3 key players. Defensively, the outfield is strong. Bourn has excellent range and covers the expansive centerfield at Minute Maid and is also responsible for a lot of left field as well because El Caballo is not known as a burner in left. In right field Hunter Pence has good range and cannon for an arm. Last year he led all outfielders in assists with 16. If this group can improve even slightly from last year, it will be a great boost to a team that has a few questions on how to score runs. Bourn needs to continue to get on base to give the big boys (Berkman, Lee, and Pence) a chance to drive in runs.
Bench
The Astros bench is just about average. Humberto Quintero will be the back up catcher. He is very solid defensively, but does not hit much. Hopefully, one of the two young catchers can step up and take hold of the position so Q does not have to play too much. The backup infielders will be the switch hitting Geoff Blum and the right handed Jeff Keppinger. Both of these guys are very good to have because they can both play all positions in the infield. Keppinger is also exceptional against lefties so if Kaz or Manzella falter at all, expect Keppinger to pick up their at bats against lefties. The backup outfielders are not known at this point. Jason Michaels is expected to be one and the other will either be Cory Sullivan or Jason Bourgeois. None of the backup outfielders are exceptional, but it could be much worse.
Starting Rotation
Returning as the ace of the staff will be Roy Oswalt. Last year he had a very poor season, but a lot of it was attributed to a back issue that caused numbness in his arm and hands. During the offseason Roy had a very intense workout program to strengthen the muscles in his back and is said to have overcome the issues so far this spring. After his breakout season last year, the Astros are expecting big things out of Wandy Rodriguez. Wandy has steadily improved every season he has been in the majors, and last year took huge steps forward. He led the Astros in wins, innings pitched, and era. All of these stats were career best numbers. Filling the number three slot in the rotation is former Phillies starter and closer (no surprise here) Brett Myers. Myers has been a very good pitcher in his career even though he has been dealing with some injuries the past few years. If Brett can pitch up to his capabilities and stay healthy, the top of the Astros rotation looks very strong. When it comes to the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation what a difference a year can make. Last year the Astros had former aces Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz as the favorites for these two spots. This year young pitchers Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino are the favorites for these slots. Bud came up in July last year and started off very well. After about 4 or 5 starts though the league caught up to him and he had a rough patch. The good news though is that after the league figured him out he went to work and ended the year very strong. Felipe has the kind of arm that makes big league scouts drool He can throw his fastball as high as 102 mph and has a very good slider. The only problem with Felipe is that he does not know where his pitches are going. One of pitching Coach Brad Arnsberg’s most important tasks this spring is to try and make Paulino a successful major league pitcher and not just a thrower. Last year Felipe showed great potential in some games. One that sticks out was his start against Detroit last year. Felipe pitched seven innings, allowed only 3 hits, and struck out nine Tigers. This game showed how good Paulino can be and if he can figure out how to perform even close to this he could be a key to a successful season. Overall this rotation is not one of the best in the game by a long shot. However, they have potentially a rotation that is good enough to keep them in the game and make contending a possibility, albeit a small one.
Bullpen
The greatest strength of the Astros last season was their bullpen. They had shutdown closer Jose Valverde for the 9th inning and set up man LaTroy Hawkins to pitch the 8th. After losing both of these key bullpen pieces to free agency they were replaced by Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom respectively. Even though Lyon and Lindstrom are not expected to be as dominant as Hawkins and Valverde, they should fill in nicely. Lyon had an exceptional year last year as a set up man for the tigers and had 26 saves as the closer for the Diamondbacks in 2008. Lindstrom has a power arm but has trouble controlling his pitches. If he can learn to harness his 100 mph fastball he could be a very good closer at the back end of the bullpen. Right now there is no clear cut favorite for the closer position, but unfortunately Lyon has been limited so far this spring. He had a shoulder cyst drained in February and has not yet thrown in a game. This could give Lindstrom a chance to impress the staff, but right now it is still an open competition. The middle relief has potential to be solid. Some of the pitchers expected to be in the bullpen are waiver claims Alberto Arias and Jeff Fulchino who excelled last year, youngsters in Sammy Gervacio and Wesley who had good runs late in the year, and veterans Brian Moehler and Chris Sampson. This group has a good mix of youth excitement and veteran leadership. This mix could provide an above average bullpen that has the potential to pitch a lot of innings if the starters falter.
Final Thoughts
On paper this is the best team the Astros have had since their World Series team back in 2005. Even though the past few years have been rough for Astros fans, things are looking up. After many years of building with veterans through free agency, the team is finally integrating youth. While the NL Central has been down the past few years, this team has a slight chance of contention. Every team in the division has an Achilles heel, but the Astros could contend if all the cards fall in the right place. There are a lot of ifs though. If Oswalt, Berkman, and Lee can bounce back, If Wandy can continue to improve and pitch at least as good as last year just to name a few, and maybe the most important If the young pitchers can pitch to their potential the Astros could contend this year. This fan’s projection is a record of 82-80 with a 3rd place finish in the division behind St. Louis and Chicago.
Projected Lineup (Last year’s stats)
CF Michael Bourn, .285 AVG, 97 R, 61 SB
2B Kazuo Matsui, .250 AVG, 56 R, 19 SB
1B Lance Berkman , .274 AVG, 25 HR, 80 RBI
LF Carlos Lee, .300 AVG, 26 HR, 102 RBI
RF Hunter Pence, .282 AVG, 25 HR, 72 RBI
3B Pedro Feliz, .266 AVG, 12 HR, 82 RBI
C Jason Castro*, .300 AVG, 10 HR, 73 RBI
SS Tommy Manzella**, .289, 9 HR, 56 RBI
*Statistics combined from A and AA
**Statistics from AAA
Starting Rotation
Roy Oswalt, 8-6, 4.12 ERA, 181.1 IP
Wandy Rodriguez, 14-12, 3.02, 205.2 IP
Brett Myers, 4-3, 4.84 ERA, 70.2 IP
Bud Norris6-3, 4.53 ERA, 55.2 IP
Felipe Paulino, 3-11, 6.27 ERA, 97.2 IP
Bullpen
Matt Lindstrom, 54 G, 5.89 ERA, 15/17 SV
Brandon Lyon, 65 G, 2.86 ERA, 3/6 SV
Sammy Gervacio, 29 G, 21.0 IP, 2.14 ERA
Jeff Fulchino, 61 G, 82.0 IP, 3.40 ERA
Alberto Arias, 42 G, 45.2 IP, 3.35 ERA
Wesley Wright, 49 G, 44.2 IP, 5.44 ERA
Chris Sampson, 49 G, 55.1 IP, 5.04 ERA
Shoot. Just mentioned it. Sorry Mark.
--TQ
The past decade for Houston was an up and down one to say the least. The Astros started off the decade with their worst season in the Drayton McLane era going 72-90. In the middle of the decade the franchise had some of the best years in franchise history. They won a playoff series for the first time in 2004 and in 2005 won their first National League pennant and played in their first World Series. Since that magical run in 2005, the path the Astros have taken has been a downhill one. During the last year of the decade the Astros went 74-88. There were so many low points in 2009 that it is hard to pick the lowest. Some of them would be: then manager Cecil Cooper predicts 90 wins, Roy Oswalt only winning 8 games and having an ERA over 4, Berkman having one of the worst seasons of his career, being completely out of the race at the trade deadline and not trading for the future, and finally Cecil Cooper getting fired. All of those things are in the past however, and 2010 looks to be a much better year for the Good Guys from Houston.
Coaching
The biggest offseason move Houston made was hiring their 5th field manager in the last 6 years. Some of the notable candidates were Phil Garner, Bob Melvin, Ned Yost, and Manny Acta. The Astros first choice was Manny Acta but he demanded a 3 year contract. Acta had begun his coaching career in the Astros farm system and played and had said managing the Astros was his dream job. Drayton refused to move from a 2 year deal with a club option to 3 years guaranteed and as a result, Manny signed with Cleveland. After this gaffe that became very public, the Astros went in to spin control and hired Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills within a few days. Mills has been highly recommended by Terry Francona and has potential to be a great manager. The clubhouse in Houston became toxic last season with Cecil Cooper in charge and many people are hoping Mills brings a winning atmosphere with him from Fenway.
What might be the second most important hire of the offseason was the hiring of Brad Arnsberg as the pitching coach from the Blue Jays. Arnsberg was the pitching coach in Toronto from 2005 through 2009, during which the Blue Jays ranked second in the league with a team ERA of 3.98. Last year many of the pitchers had little to no confidence in pitching coach Dewey Robinson. It is not surprising that Roy Oswalt had the worst season of his career last year. Arnsberg comes in much respected and has worked with many ace pitchers including Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, and Roy Halladay. Having a competent, respected pitching coach could go a long way in determining how well the Astros do this year.
Catcher
One of the few positions where the Astros are working in some youth is at catcher. One of the players battling for the starting job is current top prospect and former first round draft pick Jason Castro. The other candidate for the job is former top prospect J.R. Towles. Towles burst onto the scene back in 2007 as a September call up and had an 8 RBI game against the Cardinals and all Astros fans thought we finally had a catcher who would hit for the first time since Craig Biggio was a catcher back in 1991. Since that magical night in St. Louis, Towles has a batting average of .149. Astros management is giving Castro every opportunity to start the season in Houston, but if he is deemed not ready, he will return to AAA and surely be called upon later in the year. Penciled in as the backup Humberto Quintero. He is a solid defensive catcher who will not hit much, but won’t play much either.
First Base
Lance Berman is one of the top first basemen in baseball about every other year. Many Astros fans have noticed that over Lance Berkman’s career that he is usually exceptional every even numbered year, and an above average player in odd numbered years. Since the beginning of his career in 1999, his batting average is .292 in odd numbered years, as opposed to batting .307 in even numbered years. He has averaged about 28 home runs in odd numbered years compared to 33 in even numbered years. In odd numbered years he averages 96 RBI’s and in even numbered years he averages 119. Because this year is 2010 Astros fans are hoping that the Big Puma has his typical even numbered year.
Second Base
Kaz Matsui is supposed to be the Astros starting second basemen this year. Last year Matsui set a career high in games played with 132. When healthy, Matusi can be a productive player, unfortunately Kaz is never healthy. Out of 324 potential games as an Astros, Matsui has only played 228 of them. Luckily the Astros have veteran utility men Geoff Blum and Jeff Keppinger to fill in when the fragile Kaz gets hurt. The key to being productive at second though is Kaz staying healthy, which is unlikely. When healthy he is a potential game changer in the number 2 hole.
Third Base
One of the key signings of the Astros this offseason was former Phillies (no surprise) third baseman Pedro Feliz. Feliz is known throughout the game as one of the top defenders at the hot corner. One of the ways the Astros looked to improve the team this offseason was by upgrading the defense. By installing Feliz as the third basemen and rookie Tommy Manzella at shortstop the left side of the infield should be one of the best defensive left sides in the game. While Feliz is not a slugger, he has consistently driven in about 75-80 runs throughout his career. Many think his home run totals will go up as a result of playing at hitter friendly Minute Maid Park.
Shortstop
Another key defensive upgrade for the Astros this offseason was deciding to let Miguel Tejada walk as a free agent and install the slick fielding Tommy Manzella as the starting shortstop. While Manzella is not expected to be anything close to the hitter of Tejada, he is expected to be far better defensively. Astros management has often compared Manzella’s work with the glove to former Astro Adam Everett. Manzella has been ready for the majors defensively for years; however his hitting leaves some doubt as to whether he will be able to stick in The Bigs. Even though technically he is replacing All Star shortstop Miguel Tejada, it can be seen as he is replacing Geoff Blum in the infield. Coupled with the signing of Pedro Feliz, Astros management is hoping that Feliz can make up for the runs that Miggy was responsible for, and let Manzella tighten up the defense up the middle.
Outfield
Last year, one of the few bright spots for the Astros was the outfield. Leftfielder Carlos Lee had a down year by his standards but still managed to drive in 100 runs, bat .300, and hit over 25 home runs. Hunter Pence took a step forward in his development and became an All Star last year. Michael Bourn went from being one of the worst hitters in baseball in 2008 to being the Astros team MVP in 2009. Bourn also won a Gold Glove and led the National League with 61 stolen bases. If Lee can return to top for and hit around 35 home runs and drive in his usual 120 RBI’s the Astros will be in good shape. Bourn needs to continue in his progression as a game changer at the top of the line up, and Hunter Pence needs to continue to improve at the rate he is currently. This is by far the strongest position on the team and the Astros are expecting a lot of their offensive output to come from these 3 key players. Defensively, the outfield is strong. Bourn has excellent range and covers the expansive centerfield at Minute Maid and is also responsible for a lot of left field as well because El Caballo is not known as a burner in left. In right field Hunter Pence has good range and cannon for an arm. Last year he led all outfielders in assists with 16. If this group can improve even slightly from last year, it will be a great boost to a team that has a few questions on how to score runs. Bourn needs to continue to get on base to give the big boys (Berkman, Lee, and Pence) a chance to drive in runs.
Bench
The Astros bench is just about average. Humberto Quintero will be the back up catcher. He is very solid defensively, but does not hit much. Hopefully, one of the two young catchers can step up and take hold of the position so Q does not have to play too much. The backup infielders will be the switch hitting Geoff Blum and the right handed Jeff Keppinger. Both of these guys are very good to have because they can both play all positions in the infield. Keppinger is also exceptional against lefties so if Kaz or Manzella falter at all, expect Keppinger to pick up their at bats against lefties. The backup outfielders are not known at this point. Jason Michaels is expected to be one and the other will either be Cory Sullivan or Jason Bourgeois. None of the backup outfielders are exceptional, but it could be much worse.
Starting Rotation
Returning as the ace of the staff will be Roy Oswalt. Last year he had a very poor season, but a lot of it was attributed to a back issue that caused numbness in his arm and hands. During the offseason Roy had a very intense workout program to strengthen the muscles in his back and is said to have overcome the issues so far this spring. After his breakout season last year, the Astros are expecting big things out of Wandy Rodriguez. Wandy has steadily improved every season he has been in the majors, and last year took huge steps forward. He led the Astros in wins, innings pitched, and era. All of these stats were career best numbers. Filling the number three slot in the rotation is former Phillies starter and closer (no surprise here) Brett Myers. Myers has been a very good pitcher in his career even though he has been dealing with some injuries the past few years. If Brett can pitch up to his capabilities and stay healthy, the top of the Astros rotation looks very strong. When it comes to the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation what a difference a year can make. Last year the Astros had former aces Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz as the favorites for these two spots. This year young pitchers Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino are the favorites for these slots. Bud came up in July last year and started off very well. After about 4 or 5 starts though the league caught up to him and he had a rough patch. The good news though is that after the league figured him out he went to work and ended the year very strong. Felipe has the kind of arm that makes big league scouts drool He can throw his fastball as high as 102 mph and has a very good slider. The only problem with Felipe is that he does not know where his pitches are going. One of pitching Coach Brad Arnsberg’s most important tasks this spring is to try and make Paulino a successful major league pitcher and not just a thrower. Last year Felipe showed great potential in some games. One that sticks out was his start against Detroit last year. Felipe pitched seven innings, allowed only 3 hits, and struck out nine Tigers. This game showed how good Paulino can be and if he can figure out how to perform even close to this he could be a key to a successful season. Overall this rotation is not one of the best in the game by a long shot. However, they have potentially a rotation that is good enough to keep them in the game and make contending a possibility, albeit a small one.
Bullpen
The greatest strength of the Astros last season was their bullpen. They had shutdown closer Jose Valverde for the 9th inning and set up man LaTroy Hawkins to pitch the 8th. After losing both of these key bullpen pieces to free agency they were replaced by Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom respectively. Even though Lyon and Lindstrom are not expected to be as dominant as Hawkins and Valverde, they should fill in nicely. Lyon had an exceptional year last year as a set up man for the tigers and had 26 saves as the closer for the Diamondbacks in 2008. Lindstrom has a power arm but has trouble controlling his pitches. If he can learn to harness his 100 mph fastball he could be a very good closer at the back end of the bullpen. Right now there is no clear cut favorite for the closer position, but unfortunately Lyon has been limited so far this spring. He had a shoulder cyst drained in February and has not yet thrown in a game. This could give Lindstrom a chance to impress the staff, but right now it is still an open competition. The middle relief has potential to be solid. Some of the pitchers expected to be in the bullpen are waiver claims Alberto Arias and Jeff Fulchino who excelled last year, youngsters in Sammy Gervacio and Wesley who had good runs late in the year, and veterans Brian Moehler and Chris Sampson. This group has a good mix of youth excitement and veteran leadership. This mix could provide an above average bullpen that has the potential to pitch a lot of innings if the starters falter.
Final Thoughts
On paper this is the best team the Astros have had since their World Series team back in 2005. Even though the past few years have been rough for Astros fans, things are looking up. After many years of building with veterans through free agency, the team is finally integrating youth. While the NL Central has been down the past few years, this team has a slight chance of contention. Every team in the division has an Achilles heel, but the Astros could contend if all the cards fall in the right place. There are a lot of ifs though. If Oswalt, Berkman, and Lee can bounce back, If Wandy can continue to improve and pitch at least as good as last year just to name a few, and maybe the most important If the young pitchers can pitch to their potential the Astros could contend this year. This fan’s projection is a record of 82-80 with a 3rd place finish in the division behind St. Louis and Chicago.
Projected Lineup (Last year’s stats)
CF Michael Bourn, .285 AVG, 97 R, 61 SB
2B Kazuo Matsui, .250 AVG, 56 R, 19 SB
1B Lance Berkman , .274 AVG, 25 HR, 80 RBI
LF Carlos Lee, .300 AVG, 26 HR, 102 RBI
RF Hunter Pence, .282 AVG, 25 HR, 72 RBI
3B Pedro Feliz, .266 AVG, 12 HR, 82 RBI
C Jason Castro*, .300 AVG, 10 HR, 73 RBI
SS Tommy Manzella**, .289, 9 HR, 56 RBI
*Statistics combined from A and AA
**Statistics from AAA
Starting Rotation
Roy Oswalt, 8-6, 4.12 ERA, 181.1 IP
Wandy Rodriguez, 14-12, 3.02, 205.2 IP
Brett Myers, 4-3, 4.84 ERA, 70.2 IP
Bud Norris6-3, 4.53 ERA, 55.2 IP
Felipe Paulino, 3-11, 6.27 ERA, 97.2 IP
Bullpen
Matt Lindstrom, 54 G, 5.89 ERA, 15/17 SV
Brandon Lyon, 65 G, 2.86 ERA, 3/6 SV
Sammy Gervacio, 29 G, 21.0 IP, 2.14 ERA
Jeff Fulchino, 61 G, 82.0 IP, 3.40 ERA
Alberto Arias, 42 G, 45.2 IP, 3.35 ERA
Wesley Wright, 49 G, 44.2 IP, 5.44 ERA
Chris Sampson, 49 G, 55.1 IP, 5.04 ERA
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