Orioles Magic

The rain came down heavily at times the evening of May 29, 2009, in Baltimore, MD. But, through the clouds, 42,000+ residents of Charm City could sense that the sun was coming up.

On that Friday night at Camden Yards, Matt Wieters made his debut behind the plate for the Baltimore Orioles, and the giddy crowd, larger than the attendance for the previous three games combined, greeted him with a standing ovation for his first at-bat. Ranked as high as #1 on several prospects lists, Wieters had torn through three levels of the minor leagues and quickly became the face of all the hope O’s fans had placed in the future. His Georgia Tech teammates had dubbed him “God” after he hit a go-ahead home run in the ninth inning against Miami and then pitched the bottom half to record the save.

Hope for the future will be a theme in 2010, as well. Team president Andy MacPhail has made a series of wise moves and trades since taking over in mid-season in 2007. He replaced the organizational tendency to trade away prospects and overpay aging, under-producing veterans with investment in developing younger players, particularly pitchers. Several of the players developed under MacPhail’s regime are now in the majors or will make their debuts in 2010, meaning that signs of fruition will be necessary if the front office wants the fans in Birdland to demonstrate the same level of patience that it has exhibited.

Of course, Baltimore still plays in the stacked AL East, and Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay are all tooled for deep postseason runs. The unbalanced schedule will be particularly unkind to a young team. Still, seeing stars in the making should give fans plenty of reasons for fans to head downtown and watch the smoke rise above Boog’s Barbecue on Eutaw Street. The season may not have any more games than the last twelve (all of which ended with sub-.500 records), but the Orioles will win some exciting games and be fun to watch.

2009 in review

The Orioles’ 2009 campaign featured all the ups and downs expected of a young team in the heart of its rebuilding process. The final record, 64-98, was good for last place in the AL East. Though the losses significantly outnumbered the wins, there were certainly several memorable moments in the first column. On Opening Day, Oriole Park lived up to its name, with home fans filling the stadium and loudly booing Yankees first baseman (and Severna Park native) Mark Teixeira as Baltimore took the game and the series. On a May 27 afternoon game, breakout rookie left fielder Nolan Reimold officially arrived on the scene with a walk-off home run in extra innings to cap a comeback against the Blue Jays. Few can forget the June 31 instant classic against the Red Sox, when, after an hour-long rain delay, the O’s overcame a 10-1 deficit to win 11-10, the largest comeback in franchise history and the largest comeback by a last-place team over a first-place team in MLB history.

While great moments against division foes stick out in the minds of fans, the most positive development, particularly in the rebuilding process, was the debuts and progression of the Baby Birds. Though fans forget that he was that young, 24-year-old Adam Jones had a solid year (before being sidelined by injury) in center field and near the top of the lineup and earned his first trip to the All-Star game, where his sacrifice fly brought in the winning run for the American League. He also took home his first Gold Glove. At the beginning of last season, the left field spot was thought to be a competition between Felix Pie and Lou Montanez, with Luke Scott filling in when not at the DH. Nolan Reimold made the debate all but obsolete, destroying International League pitching for a month and a half at Norfolk before getting the call and remaining in contention for AL Rookie of the Year until an Achilles injury sidelined him.

Right-handed pitcher Brad Bergesen, supposedly nowhere in anyone’s discussion of the “cavalry” of pitching prospects, made his debut in April and firmly planted himself in the rotation of the future. Working fast and with impeccable control, the California native compiled a 7-5 record with a 3.43 ERA. In his last twelve starts, he lasted six innings each time and game up more than one run only once. A Billy Butler line drive to the shin on July 30 ended his promising rookie campaign. Chris Tillman, a highly prized right-handed starter brought over in the gift that keeps on giving (the 2008 trade of Erik Bedard that also landed Jones, George Sherrill, Kam Mickolio, and Tony Butler), had a slightly rougher rookie campaign but gave no indication that he cannot live up to his high expectations.

Finally, the much-ballyhooed prospects, in whom much hope, as well as two top-five draft picks, is invested, proved that the hype might not be misplaced. Wieters’ .288/.340/.412 line is even more impressive considering it included a non-existent bat in his first month in Baltimore; in September he clipped .362/.412/.511, perhaps unsustainable through an entire year in 2010 (unless one asks the folks at www.mattwietersfacts.com), but encouraging in its improvement. Thwarting Carl Crawford’s theft attempts twice in the same game is already used on Orioles TV promotions. Southpaw starter Brian Matusz started his first professional season at High-A Frederick and dominated the Carolina League before being called up to Double-A Bowie and not skipping a beat. Countering MacPhail’s usual conservatism with prospects, Matusz made his debut in Detroit in August and impressed AL batters with a 5-2 record and an ERA of 4.68, which included three consecutive seven-inning outings to close the year, the last being a one-run victory over the Yankees. Perhaps most importantly, the stories of Tillman, Wieters, and Matusz do not include season-shortening injuries.

However, it was a losing season, and it was made all the more painful by the fact that it was the twelfth in a row and more discouraging by the fact that the division shows no signs of weakening, with the Yankees and Red Sox making the playoffs and the Rays primed to compete in 2010. The older players on Baltimore’s roster (Cesar Izturis’ glove and Brian Roberts excepted) played poorly. Melvin Mora failed to produce offensively and defensively, leading many to speculate about the All-Star numbers he had put up in seasons past. Aubrey Huff followed a spectacular 2008 season with a lackluster 2009, hitting .253/.321/.405 before being traded to Detroit for a minor-league middle reliever. Luke Scott had an outstanding first half but completely fell off in the second, diving into slumps that seemed to get longer and longer. Jeremy Guthrie, the Opening Day starter, went 10-17 with a 5.04 ERA and gave up a league-high 35 home runs. To put that in perspective, Luke Scott led all Orioles with 25 home runs.

The second-half swoon, predicted by all Orioles prognosticators based on recent history, was especially painful last year, with its 13-game losing streak all but inevitable following the rash of late-season injuries. Jones, Bergesen, Reimold, Izturis, Mora, Scott, and pitchers Alfredo Simon and Koji Uehara all spent extended periods on the disabled list, and the September version of the O’s was all but unrecognizable.

The Offseason: when Baltimore is guaranteed first place in the AL East standings

MacPhail and company continued to make moves that improve the team, if only incrementally. Having said that “Phase 2” of his plan begins with this season, fans and writers alike have speculated that MacPhail hopes to put the Orioles in position for an improved record this year to be able to attract the big free agent bats and arms that could make the Birds truly competitive in 2011. With the win-loss record mattering for the first time in his big-league career, the front office exercised manager Dave Trembley’s option for this year, and guesses on his future with the team will continue throughout the season.

In truthful terms, the offseason began mid-season 2009 last year with a series of trades and the Orioles out of contention. Utility infielder Oscar Salazar went to San Diego in exchange for right-handed reliever Cla Meredith, who will likely make appearances out of the middle of the bullpen. George Sherrill’s trade to the Dodgers reaped two Double-A prospects, third baseman Josh Bell and starting pitcher Steve Johnson. Johnson, son of former Orioles pitcher Dave Johnson, was taken by the Giants in the Rule-5 Draft this winter but, unable to stick with the team there, was given back to the Orioles. Though Johnson is a decent pickup, the true gem of the deal is Bell. A switch-hitter with power and an improving glove, the Warehouse envisions him as the third baseman of the future. He will begin the season in Triple-A Norfolk and possibly force his way to Baltimore by mid-season.

In the actual offseason, the Orioles bolstered their starting pitching, corner infield, and back end of the bullpen. For the injury-plagued and struggling reliever Chris Ray, the Birds obtained Rangers starting right-hander Kevin Millwood. Millwood will take the mound on Opening Day against the Rays and take the pressure off the younger pitchers by eating innings and allowing a few to remain in Triple-A as long as necessary. Trembley also hopes Millwood will be the staff mentor, a role Guthrie unofficially had but was never quite suited for the past two seasons. Miguel Tejada will be returning to Baltimore two seasons after being traded to Houston; the humbled All-Star, signed for one year and $6 million, will switch to third base this season, something he had been unwilling to do in the past. Izturis’ outstanding defense at shortstop gave him little option if he wanted to play for the O’s. MacPhail also signed Garrett Atkins, most recently of Colorado, in the hopes that he can return to his 2006 and 2007 form (when he batted .329/.409/.556 and .301/.367/.486, respectively) and overcome his less impressive 2008 and 2009 numbers. Atkins will start at first base while Brandon Snyder, the club’s best internal option for first baseman of the future, plies in Norfolk. Mike Gonzalez, signed away from Atlanta, will take over as the closer, a role the Orioles never managed to fill once Sherrill left town. Finally, the O’s just acquired Julio Lugo in a trade for a player to be named later or cash from the Cardinals. The Red Sox will pay nearly all of the $9 million Lugo is owed this year, and he will replace Robert Andino as the club’s primary middle-infield backup.

2010 Projected Lineup

C Matt Wieters
1B Garrett Atkins
2B Brian Roberts
3B Miguel Tejada
SS Cesar Izturis
LF Nolan Reimold
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
DH Luke Scott
Bench: Felix Pie (OF), Ty Wigginton (IF), Craig Tatum (C), Julio Lugo (IF)

Any attempt at guessing the batting order is probably pointless; Trembley has already indicated that, besides Roberts at leadoff and Izturis ninth, the order will change significantly through the year. The most interesting spots in the lineup will probably be third and fourth, as the O’s lack the power bat that might naturally fill such positions. Expect Tejada to start the year at cleanup, with Markakis, Jones, Scott, and Wieters all possibly seeing at-bats there. The Opening Day lineup will likely include Felix Pie in left field, but he will only remain there every day if Reimold’s is slower to recover from injury than hoped.

Offensively, the Orioles should be solid. Jones’ .277/.335/.457 line in 2009 included a significant stretch of playing while injured, and, if he continues to improve his plate discipline by swinging at fewer balls in the dirt, he will reach base more and become the 20 HR/20 SB player of his potential. Markakis regressed offensively last year, but, at age 26, he could certainly recapture the patience that led to his .406 on-base percentage in 2008. Tejada’s power numbers have declined (anyone care to guess the reason?), but he has consistently batted well over .300 and can drive in runs, and Roberts can be counted on for production of doubles and stolen bases. Wieters, Reimold, Scott, and Atkins all have offensive potential though may be plagued with inconsistency due to youth, injury, or habit.

Defense

There are a number of factors that make the Orioles’ 2010 defensive performance difficult to predict. First, though defensive statistics such as UZR (ultimate zone rating) are helpful, they tend to vary significantly from year to year. Fangraphs.com postulates that an entire season of defensive data could be likened to a two-month period of offensive data, so statistical slumps and streaks in the field show up with much greater frequency. Second, the Orioles have a number of players relatively new to their positions. Tejada’s only experience at the hot corner prior to this year was in the 2009 World Baseball Classic. Atkins played only 28 games at first base last season, and Luke Scott, whose first base innings have been infrequent, may see time there, as well. Roberts’ back injury may limit his range at second base. Felix Pie, likely to see a lot of time in left field, is a true center fielder (which he showed in his capable replacement of Adam Jones late last year) and has struggled in the transition. This will be the first time that Wieters sits behind the plate for an entire year.

However, defensive production from certain players can be expected. Though Jones’ Gold Glove may be a bit dubious based on his 2009 statistics, his 2008 zone numbers prove that his defensive reputation is deserved. His arm is bested on the team only by right fielder Markakis. Markakis’ defensive numbers also slipped last year, but his assist number fell only because fewer runners attempted to take an extra base from him. With plus range and a former pitcher’s arm, expect to see solid defense in right field. Finally, Cesar Izturis lived up to his billing as a defensive shortstop, having the highest UZR of any American League shortstop last year, especially welcome to Orioles fans that saw five different players start at the position the previous year.

Pitching

Projected Rotation

Kevin Millwood
Jeremy Guthrie
Brad Bergesen
Brian Matusz
David Hernandez

If 2009 repeats itself, no pitcher would want to be included in the Orioles starting rotation in early April. Guthrie got the nod on Opening Day and was the only one to survive through the season, if that is an acceptable term given his longball rate. Koji Uehara, Baltimore’s first signee from Japan, saw his season cut short when it was discovered that his body is an eggshell. Alfredo Simon found his pitching identity in spring training of last year (having found his actual identity a few seasons prior) but suffered a season-ending injury in his second start. Adam Eaton was last seen touring the dunk tank booths at county fairs across Colorado. Mark Hendrickson struggled as a starter but transitioned well into an effective long arm in the bullpen. Rich Hill later joined the rotation and was unhittable when his curveball was working; unfortunately for Trembley and pitching coach Rick Kranitz, those moments became fewer and far between until a shoulder injury ended his season.

The 2010 rotation will be more reliable, though that is hardly saying much. Millwood will throw close to 200 innings. He has traditionally started strong each year in the majors, which is encouraging when 28 of the first 35 games of the season are against teams with winning records in 2009. Guthrie’s performance is predictably unpredictable, but Orioles fans can hope that, with Millwood’s presence, he will face less pressure. Though cast as the veteran last year, he actually had limited experience, and with patience and confidence may be able to produce more outings like he did on a June Sunday when he effectively shut down the National League champions in Philadelphia.

Bergesen was an outstanding control pitcher with a high groundball rate and few walks. If he can pick up where he left off, he gives the Orioles a chance to win each time he takes the mound. However, his season-ending shin injury and his strained shoulder suffered during a commercial shoot in December could be more difficult to overcome than previously thought. Pitchers as accurate as Bergesen rely on rhythm and repetition in delivery. Even a slight compensation due to injury can impact his control and make him less effective. Matusz is in strong position to be the Opening Day starter in 2011 and the American League Rookie of the Year in 2010. His four-pitch repertoire has earned the praise of opposing managers, and twice in spring training he plowed through a Phillies lineup consisting largely of their regulars. His poise and intelligence have earned him comparisons to Mike Mussina. Though hopefully he does not leave when he has a chance to sign with the Bronx Bombers, such a comparison can assuage the doubts of those who thought he was rushed to the majors.

Hernandez is a surprise choice for the fifth slot, long assumed to be Tillman’s. Hernandez entered the rotation last year when the Orioles realized that there was a reason that the Phillies were paying Adam Eaton so much money to stay away. A high-strikeout, power pitcher in the minors, he only managed to strike out 68 in 101.1 innings of work last year. Far from a disappointment considering expectations were low, he struggled but was serviceable and did not pitch his way out of consideration for a spot. However, Tillman, along with a couple other prospects starting the year at Norfolk, project considerably higher, and Hernandez could find himself as a strong candidate to be the Orioles’ closer of the future. Tillman will likely work on his control in Norfolk and, along with Jake Arrieta and Troy Patton, could find himself in Baltimore’s rotation before the end of the season.

The Bullpen (ignore that total numbers will add up to greater than 25)

Koji Uehara (R)
Mark Hendrickson (L)
Matt Albers (L)
Jason Berken (R)
Will Ohman (L)
Jim Johnson (R)
Cla Meredith (R)
Mike Gonzalez (L)

Relief pitching may be the most difficult aspect of the Orioles season to predict and, therefore, perhaps the most critical in the bid for a .500 season. Uehara, when healthy, will likely find his comfort zone as a reliever. Not only did he pitch mostly from the bullpen in Japan, his accuracy and success the first time through a lineup mean that he should be effective. Hendrickson’s transition to the bullpen saw his performance improve; his relief ERA was 3.44 compared to 4.37 for the season as a whole, with a 2.64 K/BB against a 1.85 ratio for the season. He can also start in a pinch. Johnson pitched well before being asked to be closer after Sherrill left, and, with Gonzalez signed, he should return to his effective 7th/8th inning slot.

Beyond that, it gets interesting. Will Ohman comes off surgery and was picked up to fill the mysterious lefty specialist role. If a righty specialist exists, it will be Meredith, whom MacPhail called a “poor man’s Chad Bradford” when he acquired him. Berken made all his appearances last year as a starter, but he was called up and stayed with the team principally because the organization did not want to rush other prospects. His usefulness as a reliever remains to be seen. Albers will likely make the Opening Day lineup not having earned it but due to Koji Uehara’s stint on the disabled list. Kam Mickolio showed much promise in his brief stints in the last two years and probably has long-term potential as an effective reliever, but he tends to be the odd man out in roster considerations and may need more time in the majors to flourish.

The success of the bullpen will largely depend most on the success of the rotation. As the Orioles have made clear in recent years, when starters get knocked out of the game early, relievers get overworked, and production spirals even further. The rotation gave up an AL-high 5.4 runs per game, and, combined with the relievers, led the league in overall earned runs (817), hits (1633), and home runs (218). If the rotation can go deeper into games, there are enough weapons in the bullpen to make nine innings of effective pitching a regular possibility. The reality is that, even with improvement, the starters will likely be marked by inconsistency. Tillman, Matusz, Bergesen, and Hernandez are young and still on a learning curve; Millwood and Guthrie struggle putting together complete seasons. However, the future of Orioles pitching remains as bright as ever, and if Trembley and Kranitz can spread the innings effectively, this year could go a long way toward building a playoff-caliber staff.

Injuries

It is not an encouraging sign that this topic merits its own heading. A significant enough number of contributors battled injuries this offseason to make fans concerned that, even making the necessary improvements, the record might not show it. Uehara is simply fragile and cannot be counted on for a full season. Roberts, arguably the brightest spot of the dark decade, suffered a herniated disk in his back and has been on a delayed schedule all spring. A hustling second baseman who legs out doubles and steals bases, an ailing back could noticeably limit, or at least delay, his effectiveness. The recent acquisition of Lugo means that the organization does not have complete faith in his ability to play regularly, particularly in April with 16 consecutive games to start the season. Reimold has been slowed and reportedly limping in games with his Achilles injury. He will probably see several at-bats as the designated hitter, but, with decent but struggling defense last year, he probably needs a full season in left field to develop properly. Many have clamored for him to be trained as a first baseman, but this is unlikely; his potential is too high to be shifted each season and eventually find himself without a position.

Brad Bergesen was only a few days behind schedule in spring training and seems to have found his stride, but he may want to find a stunt double for future commercials. Adam Jones has recovered completely from the severe ankle sprain that ended his season, but he has been stopped short in each of the past two seasons and also suffered from back problems last year. If he is to use all five of the tools that commentators have repeated he possesses, he needs to be healthy. Other minor injuries through the spring for the Orioles include Tillman (back spasms, reportedly from sleeping on a couch), Pie (shoulder tendinitis and hit-by-pitch), and Gonzalez (back stiffness).

Projection: 82-80, 4th Place AL East

It will be a fun year to watch the Orioles. The younger players will show poise and be unflapped by the tough competition. Against one of either the Yankees or Red Sox, they will manage a winning record. However, the inconsistencies of youth mean that they will also have losing records against teams to whom they are probably superior. They will be the only fourth place team in baseball with a winning record (if it is indeed possible for that to happen). From the positive press sure to come with avoiding a baker’s dozen of losing seasons, expect Peter Angelos to allow MacPhail to use the company card and bring in some big names before a playoff run in 2011.

Orioles Magic. Feel it happen.

Acknowledgements:

Orioles.com
Baseball-reference.com
Dempseysarmy.blogspot.com (shoutout to Heath)
Masnsports.com School of Roch (Roch Kubatko)
Si.com