This is Birdland

Its opening day. In a perfectly just and fair society, this would be a national holiday.

We begin the baseball season with a preview of the team that I will be paying closest attention to for the next few months, the Baltimore Orioles.

The Orioles have been in something of a rough stretch for the past, well, decade. But, the best part of Opening Day is hope can spring eternal. If we can't at least be naively optimistic on this day then we're in trouble.



Mark Murphy offered to share his thoughts on the Orioles in blog post format. As this season will mean plenty of commentary from me on the state of the Orioles, I am very excited to begin the season with commentary from someone else whose views on the team I respect. What follows is an excellent read.

Enjoy.



For the first time since the 1972 season, the Orioles’ road gray uniforms will feature “Baltimore” emblazoned across the chest, and all jerseys will have a patch displaying the Maryland state flag, similar to the patch found on Ravens’ jerseys. Unofficially considered somewhat of a standard on road uniforms, it was widely believed (though never confirmed) that the absence of the city name was an attempt to avoid alienating the fan base in nearby Washington, DC, as the Senators had vacated the Capital in 1971.

With the Nationals firmly established in Washington, the Orioles now hope to placate their original fan base in Baltimore. The refusal to place the city name on road uniforms was often a controversial subject among Orioles fans, convinced that the team’s ownership, most recently Peter Angelos, was out of touch and unable to connect with fans or develop a winning product. The O’s, who recently ranked dead last among major league franchises (and 114th out of 122 in the major sports) in fan satisfaction according to ESPN The Magazine, could certainly afford to improve fan relations, though an assertion of hometown pride on the uniform will be insufficient to that end.

That being said, expect the “hometown” theme to be a recurrent one in this season and ones to follow. Thanks to team president Andy MacPhail, the Orioles have placed an emphasis on the farm system, and the keys to the team’s success will lie with “homegrown” players rather than pricey free agents past their prime. Two of these homegrown talents, RF Nick Markakis and 2B Brian Roberts, signed long-term contracts this offseason, and waiting in the minor leagues for promotions will be highly-prized prospects Matt Wieters (C), Brian Matusz (LHP), Jake Arrieta (RHP), and Chris Tillman (RHP). Wieters, Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year for 2008 after batting a combined .355/.454/.600 in Single-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie, will begin the season at Triple-A Norfolk and is not expected to remain there for long. His call to the majors is likely to coincide with the ability to extend arbitration and free agency an extra season and the insistence from officials at the Norfolk Naval Yard that his home runs are interfering with their satellite and radar systems.

Despite the strides made on the “homegrown” front, all discussions of the Orioles’ offseason must include some mention of missing out on a player who was literally homegrown, now-Yankee Mark Teixeira. Baltimore’s front office made its bid for the former Mount St. Joseph standout public with an offer in the ballpark of $150 million for seven years, but it is unlikely that Teixeira seriously considered the offer or even that the Orioles were doing any more than trying to be seen going after a seemingly obvious fit. Few can blame Angelos/MacPhail for not offering more money; as MacPhail put it: “The model we have to follow just doesn’t allow us to devote that much of our resources to one player, at least not at the current time.” And few can blame Teixeira for choosing more money to play on a perennial contender over a team with eleven straight losing seasons. Well, maybe you can: (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLWoZkm_6Xw)

Typically, the best part of the offseason is checking baseball news websites, knowing that the teams will be listed in alphabetical order so that Baltimore is guaranteed some time atop the AL East. While the re-signing of Roberts and Markakis and the bid for Teixeira dominated the headlines, MacPhail made other smart moves that, though partially unnoticed, provided offseason hope. Former All-Star Cesar Izturis will end the carousel at shortstop, and his solid defensive skills should compensate for his comparably weak bat. Acquired from the Cubs, Felix Pie will most likely be the everyday starting left fielder, if for no other reason than he is out of options. A speedy player that dominated the minor leagues, the Orioles hope that Pie lives up to his billing and can justify his placement in the outfield both with two potential All-Stars in Markakis and Adam Jones (CF) and in place of other qualified candidates. Most recently from the Toronto Blue Jays and nephew of 1983 World Series MVP (but more importantly, rain delay Hall of Famer) Rick Dempsey, Gregg Zaun will replace Ramon Hernandez as the starting catcher in his second tour with the O’s. Zaun, 38 in mid-April, will be keeping the plate umpire company until the promotion of Wieters, at which point he will assume a backup/mentorship role. Do not be surprised to see Zaun in an Orioles uniform in the coming years as an assistant coach. Rounding out the offseason position player acquisitions are utilitymen Ty Wigginton from Houston and Ryan Freel from Cincinnati. During the writing of this preview, Baltimore acquired Roberto Andino from the Florida Marlins as a backup shortstop.

Let’s take a look at how the Orioles will look on the field.

Projected Lineup/Offense (with 2008 statistics courtesy of baseballprospectus.com)

1. 2B Brian Roberts .296/.378/.450

2. 3B Melvin Mora .285/.342/.483

3. RF Nick Markakis .306/.406/.491

4. 1B Aubrey Huff .304/.360/.552

5. DH Luke Scott .257/.336/.472

6. CF Adam Jones .270/.311/.400

7. C Gregg Zaun .237/.340/.359

8. LF Felix Pie .241/.312/.325 (93 plate appearances)

9. SS Cesar Izturis .263/.319/.309

With respect to the lineup, there is some flexibility. In addition to Mora, Markakis will get plenty of starts in the 2-spot, and, if Jones has the breakout season many are expecting, he could compete for it as well. There will likely be a platoon system worked out between Pie and Freel in left field, and it is uncertain where exactly Freel would fit into the lineup. Other uncertainties may arise when Scott starts in left (his original and desired position), Wigginton starts at first base, or Wieters starts behind the plate, but the regular starting lineup is relatively stable.

Offensively, the team is strong. Roberts hopes to solidify his claim as a top leadoff hitter, a claim he already supported with a strong World Baseball Classic (albeit only four games). Markakis has the kind of offensive game that traditional and sabermetrically-inclined fans both love: he hits for average and OPS, he spreads the ball to all fields, and his power is likely to increase in the coming seasons. If Jones improves his plate discipline and baserunning as he develops, he will be a formidable hitter and, combined with his defense, likely make several runs at the All-Star game in his career. With the exception of Zaun, each player that does not have constitute a power threat possesses moderate speed, with several players capable of 20+ stolen bases.

Mora and Huff surprised everyone with their 2008 production. Though neither is getting any younger (37 and 33 respectively), both are entering contract years and will be feeling pressure to perform at a high level. One can expect significant contributions from numbers 1 through 6 in the lineup, and Izturis might be the only offensive liability. In 2008, Baltimore finished 11th in the majors in total runs, and there is little reason to believe that cannot be repeated. All of these analyses do not even take into account the fact that Matt Wieters is projected to be one of the top offensive catchers (if not the best) in all of baseball upon entering the league. Even if that is overly optimistic, it underscores the deep offensive weapons the team possesses.

Defense

When Baltimore pitchers keep the ball in play in Camden Yards, fans can expect to be treated to a defense with the potential to save runs and provide frequent highlights. The biggest strength is definitely the outfield, which makes a solid case for the best defensive outfield in all of professional baseball. Last season, Markakis had a .925 Revised Zone Rating (RZR), led AL corner outfielders in both Balls In Zone (295) and Out-Of-Zone plays (56), and led all AL outfielders in outfield assists, with 17. He would have been a near-lock for his first of many Gold Gloves if the award were actually based on performance and not solely reputation. Jones, though playing fewer innings due to injury, led AL centerfielders in RZR, and can expect to bring in some defensive hardware over his career. The addition of Pie, a speedster who can also play center, means that the Oriole outfield can cover a lot of ground, a necessity considering how many opportunities opponents will have to roam the basepaths. Freel and Scott will see significant time in left field and, though not as solid as the others, are experienced enough to be assets as backups. (Defensive statistics courtesy of dempseysarmy.blogspot.com)

The infield is older and not quite as strong, but the upgrade at shortstop is significant. In 2008, five players got significant time at a position that demands stability (at least in Charm City). In Izturis and Roberts, the Orioles have an above-average middle infield capable of producing a decent share of double plays. In Andino, Izturis has a solid backup, freeing manager Dave Trembley from having to play someone out of position should a substitution be necessary. The infield corners might present a defensive weakness. Despite Mora’s increased production at the plate, he has steadily declined in his performance at third base, ranking near the bottom of the American League in most defensive statistics. Huff at first base is more of a mystery, though he is fortunately in a position that can hide defensive deficiencies better. He was the everyday DH the past two seasons but logged nearly 1800 innings. According to his Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), which attempts to measure the number of runs saved or cost relative to the league average, Huff was slightly below average, costing the team about 2.6 runs (meaning his UZR was -2.6). With more practice in spring training and more innings under his belt, an optimistic Orioles fan (there are still some) can reasonably hope for an adequate glove at first base. Wigginton will provide quality innings at the corners (and also at second), but is not a viable long-term option if Mora and Huff really struggle. Behind the plate, Zaun’s age is certainly a concern, though his experience calling a game should benefit a pitching staff that might not even realize it is supposed to aim for his glove.

Pitching

Writers asked to do a Baltimore Orioles preview probably want to skip this section altogether. If baseball were a normal sport and consisted primarily of offense and defense, the Orioles would have an outside chance of competing in the AL East and a decent one in almost any other division in baseball. But, as the publisher makes known, baseball breaks your heart.

The O’s entered spring training with only two of the five spots in the starting rotation set: Jeremy Guthrie as the Opening Day starter and Koji Uehara as the #2. The bad news is not that these two likely would not be at the top of any other rotation; the bad news is that, heading north for the regular season, they still seem to be the only two spots set. Guthrie has been a rare bright spot in the past two seasons, seeming to live up to his potential as a top prospect when he was with the Cleveland Indians. MacPhail grabbed Uehara from the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan. Labeled by some as past his prime, he seems to have great control, the first step in curing the pitching staff’s horrendous walk rate. Though bright spots to be sure, their spring trainings have not been luminous. Guthrie pitched in the World Baseball Classic for the USA, getting knocked around for eight earned runs in less than four innings of work. In just over eleven innings on the mound in Florida, he has an ERA of 7.94 with 6 walks and 9 strikeouts. Uehara has performed better, striking out batters that lack a scouting report on him and walking few. However, a hamstring injury has sidelined him and limited his innings.

When those two are not starting, fans at Camden Yards will be petitioning to waive the two-beer limit at the concession stand (thankfully local favorites Clipper City and Backfin are featured on Eutaw Street and certain carts on the concourse). With the trade of Hayden Penn (the last of the latest crop of “can’t-miss” pitching prospects, which also included Adam Loewen and Daniel Cabrera) for Andino, it appears that the rotation will round out with Alfredo Simon (just five years ago he was Carlos Cabrera and younger than five years younger), Mark Hendrickson (formerly of the Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings, La Crosse Bobcats, and Cleveland Cavaliers), and Adam Eaton (picked up hitchhiking on Interstate 95 somewhere in Delaware). It is one thing to have disappointed scouts and be cast off from an organization. It is another thing altogether for those disappointments to result in the outing of a fake identity, the abandonment of a sport altogether, and a botched $24 million contract. The best-case scenario is that one of them is part of the rebuilding process beyond this year, though it is doubtful anyone legitimately expects that. Rich Hill, acquired from the Cubs in the offseason, will hopefully take the place of one of them once he returns from the disabled list. Hill, another prospect gone awry, is a southpaw hoping to live up to expectations he began to fulfill back in 2007, when he pitched 195 innings, striking out 183 and walking 63 with a WHIP of 1.19. In 2008, he seemed to forget how to find the strike zone, making him a perfect candidate for Baltimore. He was demoted first to Triple-A and then to Rookie Ball and has been likened, in several publications, to Rick Ankiel without the ability to switch positions. He claims that his problems were due to a back injury and not the mental blocks that have plagued many pressured pitchers. He will likely take the place of one of the Three Musketeers in late April, and, if he lives up to previous expectations, can make 60% of the rotation watchable. The clock is ticking on the arrival of Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta.

The bullpen, however, is capable of quality innings. In Jim Johnson, Chris Ray, and George Sherrill, the O’s have three decent relievers, and, based on the state of the starting rotation, they will need them. Johnson figures to be the long reliever, hoping to repeat a 2008 campaign in which he pitched nearly 70 innings without giving up a single home run. Ray and Sherrill have both worked as Baltimore’s closers, though Ray has not pitched since 2007, having undergone Tommy John surgery last year. Sherrill, a part of the Erik Bedard trade to Seattle that also brought Jones and Tillman, even pitched in the All-Star game in 2008 (before metaphorically unraveling in the second half) and collected 31 saves. Ray has pitched very well in spring training and will likely work the seventh and/or eighth innings this season. Though strong, they are likely to get overworked. The addition of Andino also means that the Orioles will only have twelve pitchers on the roster, so starting pitchers must eat their share of innings, or the bullpen will lose effectiveness as a result of being called upon to save the day.

Prediction

The Orioles will likely need to adjust the metrics by which they define success to be satisfied at the end of the year. Officially, the possibility remains that baseball will break others’ hearts to the extent that it has written the 11-year Dear John letter to the Orioles, and Brian Roberts will be leading a late-October parade around the Inner Harbor. However, the warehouse will need to hope for the continued development of Jones and Pie and the appointment (the opposite of disappointment?) of Wieters. Solid production from Mora, Huff, Sherrill, and Scott could result in July trades that bring in even more prospects. Trembley earned his way up the baseball ladder through the minor leagues, so he is a qualified captain for a ship sailing the waters of promotions, disappointments, and youth. Hopefully, he will be around to enjoy the success of which he will have been a crucial part in establishing.

Final 2009 record: 82-80

Baltimore will finish in fourth place and end the streak of losing seasons. The starting pitching will inevitably lose steam, but the promotions of Wieters and a couple of the arms will give the team momentum heading into 2010. Though MacPhail will continue to be patient, the next offseason will begin to shift the focus, and do not be surprised to see the Orioles making more than a token bid for a top-level free agent.

Enjoy. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8BMYo3Z7mc

Special thanks to the following publications for statistics and guidance:

baseballprospectus.com

dempseysarmy.blogspot.com

roarfrom34.blogspot.com

wikipedia.org