De-Clawed

Baseball Prospectus predicts a 78-84 record for Jim Leyland's Detroit Tigers in 2009. Thats pretty weak for a team which won the AL in 2006. Thats pretty weak for a team with this much star power. But after last seasons 74-88 debacle, 78 wins would represent a step forward.

Flamethrowing bullpen arms incinerated and once top pitching prospects spent most of last season on the DL. Starting pitching was equally erratic and fragile. The offense, the "stuff of 1000 runs" according to pre-season bold claims of a year ago, finished a modest 4th in the American League. Far from the record-setting top billing that many prophesied for a lineup loaded with recognizable names.

And they released Gary Sheffield yesterday. Part of the terms of their government bailout perhaps? Did some of the Tiger brass manage to sneak onto one of those Auto Industry CEO's planes to Washington to cash in on the government's generosity?

The kind of season the Tigers had last year lends itself to joking. They flopped.

But, lets not write off the 2009 Tigers as more of the same just yet. Theres alot of talent here.

For Instance...

...After some early season woes at the plate and despite season-long ineptitude with the leather, Miguel Cabrera was very nearly as good as advertised in his first season in the Motor City. He tied for the AL lead in total bases, led the junior circuit in homeruns, and knocked in a more-than-acceptable 127 runs. At first base, his aversion to glove work will hopefully be less egregious and cost the Tigers starters fewer runs.

...Curtis Granderson's strikeout totals have plummeted in the past two seasons. His walk total jumped up significantly last year and his OBP was a full 30 points higher than in 2006. He has hit 36 triples in the past two seasons. Thats alot. He has hit more than 20 homers in each of the past two seasons. That ain't too shabby. He provides well-above-average defense in Centerfield. The Ghost of Ty Cobb and the Saints be praised!

... Magglio Ordonez didn't manage to repeat his breakout .363 batting average of 2007 but did eclipse the .300 mark yet again in 2008. His power numbers were down slightly but he once again topped 100 RBI. At age 35 he may be slowing down a bit but he is far from career-ending decline.

... Placido Polanco hit over .300 again while playing a solid second base. He hits line drives. He scores runs. He doesn't strike out much. He's in the upper tier of AL 2nd baseman.

... Marcus Thmaes hit 25 homeruns last year in 342 plate appearances. As the regular DH in 2009 after the release of Mr. Sheffield, Thames could see closer to 600 PAs. Mark him down for almost 40 dingers if he even approaches his 2008 long-ball pace.

... Gerlad Laird has arrived from Texas to work behind home plate. If the 2006 or 2008 version of Laird appears this season, the Tigers will get a decent batting average from their backstop. His average to slightly-better-than-average skills behind the plate won't lose games for Leyland's club.

There are a Few Issues to worry about Offensively...

... Brandon Inge is penciled in to start at 3rd base. He posted an anemic .205 BA in 2008 with a Rafael Belliard-esque .672 OPS (on-Base percentage plus Slugging Percentage). Thats the type of pop you expect from a late inning defensive replacement that on occasion might suffer the indignity of being pinch hit for by a pitcher. Inge will play every day.

...Carlos Guillen was an above average offensive shortstop. Now that he plays left field, he is a below average hitter for his position. Maybe staying injury free will help him put up better ratios than his 2008 effort. Optimism, right?

And then Theres the matter of the Pitching...

...Remember how you lusted after the young arms that the 2006 Tigers showcased all the way until the end of October? Remember how happy you felt when you dreamed that Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney, Jeremy Bonderman, and Justin Verlander would storm into your local stadium at night, slay your teams floundering pitching prospects, and declare their allegiance to your team? Did anyone else do that besides me?

... Zumaya and Bonderman will start the season on the Disabled List. They will be joined there by super-flop Dontrelle Willis. Partisanship aside, I think we're all rooting for all three of them to make full recoveries and return to the mound with the kind of jaw-dropping stuff which made us swoon 3 or 4 years ago.

... After two seasons in which he flirted with Cy Young contention, Justin Verlander lost 17 games in 2008. His ERA ballooned to almost 5.00. And his strikeouts dropped. Heres hoping that 2008 was a fluke and that Verlander of old returns in 2009. The rotation behind him is pretty thin.

...Edwin Jackson, fresh off his first decent season and a trip to the World Series with the Rays, arrives from Tampa to fill the No. 2 slot behind Verlander. He will be joined in the rotation by the Tigers best pitcher from 2008, Armando Galarraga (13 and 7 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.19 WHIP). Master of the mediocre Zach Miner and uber-prospect Rick Porcello are, as of this writing, penciled in as the 4th and 5th starters for Jim Leyland. Porcello led his A-Ball league in ERA last year and despite a spring training blister, Manager Leyland maintains that Porcello is a "legitimate candidate" to make the ball club as a starter. Failing that, Nate Robertson may be summoned from bullpen mop up duty to eat innings at the back end of the Tigers' rotation.

... The Tigers' closer, on paper at least, is recently acquired Brandon Lyon. He posted an un-closer-like 4.70 ERA last year in Arizona. OPPOSING HITTERS HIT .301 AGAINST HIM. Oh Joel Zumaya. Whence hast thy magnificent fled? The closer spot doth miss thee.

... Fernando Rodney's 4.91 ERA effort from a year ago does not make him a much better candidate than Lyon to save games in Motown. He will be a primary setup man along with Bobby Seay and former steroid suspendee Juan Rincon. If the season starts to go south, prospect Zach Simons put up excellent numbers in High-A ball last season. The urge to see if he can work his magic at higher levels may prove tempting if the Tigers find themselves mired at the bottom of the AL Central again.

Prediction:

What if the pitchers are somewhat healthy? What if the hitters improve their 2008 outputs slightly? What if Willis and Verlander regain their old forms?

Then this is possible: 86-76 Second Place AL Central.