One second the Padres are playing for a slot in the postseason, and are even 3 outs away from securing said berth. And the next, they’re wallowing in the cellar of the talent-depleted NL West, casting off veteran contracts, and looking depressingly far from being contenders.
2007 and 2008 could not have been more different in San Diego.
But what does 2009 have in store?
Among other salient changes, “Hell’s Bells” will not be playing over the Petco Park PA system this season. Longtime bullpen ace Trevor Hoffman has left for Milwaukee and will begin 2009 on the Brewers’ disabled list.
In an attempt at another sweeping change, the Padres’ Front Office tried in the offseason to ship Jake Peavy elsewhere. But, not finding a buyer willing to part with enough prospects (word is that the Padres were trying to pull off an Erik Bedard-like heist) management has contended themselves with at least starting the year with Jake Peavy as the staff ace. How long he stays a Padre will be a constant source of rumor all season.
The Pitchers
It would be tempting to totally write off this bunch as “Jake Peavy and the Buschers.” But that’s not a wholly accurate description of the Padres pitching staff. As a front end starter, Peavy is a member of the elite group of genuine staff aces alive today. He usually eats innings, misses bats, and generally has electric stuff. With any offensive support (he got 3.7 runs per start last year, which is awful) Peavy should always be in the conversation for a Cy Young Award.
Behind Peavy is Chris Young. Young took an Albert Pujols line drive off of his face last summer, which severly lmited his 2008 innings. He is a solid starter but has yet to throw 200 innings in a big league season. As a middle of the rotation guy, Young is well above average. If the Padres think he is a top-of-staff talent, his track record would show that they are sorely mistaken. Korean import Cha Seung Baek (6-9 record with a 4.62 after coming to San Diego from Seattle in the middle of last season), Kevin Correia (3-8 last season with the Giants), and some combination of Walter Silva (on loan from a team in Mexico), and Nationals cast-off Shawn Hill should contend for the remaining slots in the Padres rotation. Baek will begin the season on the DL with a forearm strain.
Heath Bell earns the distinction of being the full-time closer who replaced Mr. Hoffman in San Diego. His ERA jumped a full 1 ½ points last season after a 2007 campaign that seems to have been a statistical aberration. He has 2 career major league saves to his credit but will be expected to rack up dozens more this season. Cla Meredith (will someone please have the decency to lend that poor boy a “Y” to tack onto the end of his first name) hopes to halt the trend of a rapidly rising ERA as he returns as San Diego’s primary setup man. Ed Mujica, recently acquired from Cleveland will handle middle inning duties with a combination of Duaner Sanchez (formerly of the Mets), left-hander Arturo Lopez, and rookie Edwin Moreno.
Will They Score Any Runs?
Well. Maybe.
Adrian Gonzalez returns as the anchor of the defense at 1st base and the power bat in the middle of the Padres lineup. He slugged 36 homers last season and his slugging percentage continued a slow but steady climb all the way up to .510. He is a star. Perhaps not in the MVP-strata yet. But Gonzalez is a bona fide star.
Other than Gonzalez, the offense features little about which to get exicted. Jody Gerut and Brian Giles will patrol center and right fields respectively. The former put up modest numbers in an injury shortened 2008 campaign. The latter just turned 38 and is coming off of a season in which his power numbers remained low but his batting average jumped 35 points to .306. He may have another good season in him.
2006 World Series MVP David Eckstein will handle second base for the Padres.
Seems like a long time ago.
Kevin Kouzmanoff saw both his positive offensive stats (HR, RBI, Runs) rise in his second season as a full-time 3rd baseman as well as his negative stats (Strikeouts). His walks decreased as did his battign average and OBP. His third season will be very telling as to his future career trajectory.
Scott Hairston and Cliff Floyd will both see at-bats in corner outfield spots. Hairston slugged 17 homeruns last season but only drove in 31 in the process. That’s unbelievably low.
Nick Hundley brings what Baseball Prospectus described as a “backup’s skill set” to his first season as a full-time catcher in the majors.
The Padres have embraced the youth movement. Or at least the inexperienced movement. Their bench will be a mix of low-experience players, a Rule V draftee, and Henry Blanco (whose spectacular mediocrity at the plate makes him the stereotypical backup catcher from hell. His .292 average last season was a full 130 points higher than his putrid 2007 effort)
Prediction:
Theres not a whole lot to get excited about here. Peavy is likely to be elsewhere by July 31. Giles and Cliff Floyd may make similar mid-season departures. There aren’t really even any top-tier prospects about whom to gush at the start of this season.
65-97. Last Place. NL West.
Until Next Time, Stay Classy, San Diego.
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