Chris Music brings us an Indians Preview for the second year in a row. The tssk would have probably been much more enjoyable if I had asked Chris to cover the Indians from 1995 until about 2000. Its been a rough couple of years for the Erie Warriors. Chris gives a very honest fan's view, this is worth a read. Enjoy!
--TQ
Yes there are other sports teams in Cleveland besides the Cleveland Cavaliers. Johnny from the cult film “The Room” also laments about the Tribe:
Note: For anyone who has not seen this movie, make time to borrow, or rent the DVD, or if you’re lucky a screening may be showing in your area, as this movie is still in theaters on select occasions!'
Upon reviewing my preview of the 2009 Indians, I realized that the only thing remotely correct from the preview was that it was a “year of change for baseball in Cleveland.” Management’s trading of fan favorites Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez at the trade deadline capped a very disappointing season in Cleveland, culminating in the termination of manager Eric Wedge.
65-97, Fourth place in AL Central (Won head-to-head tiebreaker with the Kansas City Royals)
2009 Recap:
Positives:
· Shin Shoo Choo: (.300, 20 HR, 86 RBI, 21 SB, .883 OPS)
· Asdrubal Cabrera (.308, 42 2B, 17 SB)
· Michael Brantley (.313 in 28 games in his first MLB experience)
· Tony Sipp (2.93 ERA, 40IP, 48K)
· Joe Smith (3.44 ERA, 34IP, 30K)
Negatives:
· Grady Sizemore (.248, 18 HR, 106 Games)
· Travis Hafner (.272, 16 HR, 94 Games)
· Kelly Shoppach (.214, 12 HR, 89 Games)
· Fausto Carmona (5-12, 6.32 ERA, 24 starts)
· Anthony Reyes (1-1, 6.57 ERA, 8 starts)
· Rafael Perez (7.31 ERA, 48IP, 1.90 WHIP)
· Masa Kobayashi (8.38 ERA, 9.2IP)
Given the Tribe’s 90+ win seasons in 2005 and 2007, followed by disappointing performances in 2006 and 2008, Cleveland fans hoped for a strong season in an odd numbered year, ala the San Antonio Spurs of the NBA. In what seemed to be typical fashion during the Eric Wedge era, the Indians quickly started off the season losing seven of eight and finishing April 8-14. Unfortunately, the team was unable to bounce back from the slow start, primarily due to the struggles of the pitching staff, outside of ace Cliff Lee. Unfortunately, when Lee took the hill, Tribe bats suddenly turned into wet noodles, as he ended May with a 2-6 record, despite having an ERA of 3.16. On June 14th, after Lee pitched no-hit baseball through seven innings, defeating Chris Carpenter and the St. Louis Cardinals, the Tribe clawed to a record of 29-36, only six games behind first place Detroit. All momentum was quickly lost, as the next night Indians relievers squandered a 12-7 lead, surrendering a total seven unanswered runs in the seventh and eighth innings. This loss began a period where the Tribe lost 13 of 15 games, leading to a 35-54 record at the All-Star Break.
With the Dolan ownership apparently losing $20M, and the team struggling to climb out of last place in the Central, GM Mark Shapiro began to shed payroll via trades which further irritated fans still lamenting over the disappointing end to the 2007 season. On June 28th, Shapiro dealt infielder Mark DeRosa to St. Louis for relievers Chris Perez and Jess Todd. Nearly one month later Shapiro began a flurry of deals over a two week period, sending:
· Rafael Betancourt to Colorado for Class A pitching prospect Connor Graham,
· Ryan Garko to San Francisco for Class A pitching prospect Scott Barnes,
· Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to Philadelphia for Class A pitching prospect Jason Knapp, Triple-A pitcher Carlos Carrasco, catcher Lou Marson, and shortstop Jason Donald
· Victor Martinez to Boston for pitchers Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price, and
· Carl Pavano to Minnesota for pitcher Yohan Pino
Fans and the Cleveland media were outraged at the deals namely the Lee deal, as the more highly touted prospects rumored to be offered for Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay were not included in the deal. Of the players acquired Masterson was the only one who made a considerable contribution to the team, finishing the season with a 4.55 ERA in 11 appearances (10 starts). Carrasco struggled mightily in his five starts, collecting an ERA of 8.87 and a case of whiplash from all of the batted balls sprayed into the outfield and into the bleachers. Marson was a September call-up, playing in a handful of games, and all others remained in the minor leagues.
Unfortunately there was no wild turnaround from the team like the second half 2008 Indians following the trades of CC Sabathia and Casey Blake. Early in September Grady Sizemore, who had been battling an elbow injury for several months, decided to sit out the rest of the season. Looking like the squad at the beginning of the film Major League, the Indians finished season with a 7-25 stretch to finish with a record of 65-97.
2010 Preview:
Regrettably, there are no expectations of a World Series run from this roster. Given the current economic state and the hierarchy of sports in Cleveland, the buzz surrounding the Indians is almost non-existent. Cleveland sports talk is dominated by discussing the Cavaliers playoff run, fending pokes by the national media about which city Lebron will make his hometown, and debating the personnel moves made by Browns Team President Mike Holmgren and GM Tom Heckert. In fact, the most talked about Indians story this offseason, arguably could be the scandalous pictures of Grady Sizemore which graced Deadspin and many other websites. The hiring of Manny Acta was met with disappointment and confusion by many, given that Acta’s current career record as a manager is 158-252, and that he did not even finish the 2009 season with the Washington Nationals. Finally, given my Georgetown heritage, I must take time to congratulate MSB Alum Chris Antonetti on his promotion to General Manager, as Mark Shapiro was promoted to Team President.
Acquisitions:
· Mike Redmond (C): Likely backup catcher to Lou Marson
· Mark Grudzielanek (INF): Signed to minor league deal; potential utility infielder replacement for Jamey Carroll
· Austin Kearns(OF): Signed to minor league deal; potential backup outfielder
· Shelley Duncan(OF): Signed to minor league deal; potential backup outfielder
· Russell Branyan (1B): Potential starting first baseman, can play some third base and outfield
After the trades Shapiro made in the summer, and offseason (Shoppach to Tampa Bay), it was expected that the Indians would not be making any high priced free agent signings. The signing of Branyan was not received popular by most, given Branyan’s penchant for causing gale force winds when not making contact with the ball. Additionally, Branyan is recovering from a herniated disc in his back.
Projected Lineup, Bench, and Pitchers:
1. Asdrubal Cabrera (SS): Does not quite have the OBP desired for an leadoff hitter, but more important that Sizemore slides down in the order
2. Grady Sizemore (CF): Hopefully will bounce back from his injury plagued year
3. Shin-Soo Choo (RF): Arguably the most dangerous hitter on this team. In typical Cleveland fashion, fans have been more concerned with his impending military duty to Korea
4. Travis Hafner (DH): Tribe beat writers are reporting that Pronk cannot even throw a baseball. It’s truly amazing what the DH has done for aging power hitters….
5. Jhonny Peralta (3B): In his last year of his contract, could be poised for a big year. At the same time, rumblings out of Cleveland starting about trading Peralta at the deadline to make room for prospect Wes Hodges
6. Matt LaPorta/Russell Branyan (1B): From what has been said locally, it appears Branyan will start, but signs point to Laporta, Branyan, and Brantley splitting time over the two positions
7. Michael Brantley (LF): Had a solid debut with last season, and hopefully will eventually develop into the leadoff hitter to replace Sizemore
8. Luis Valbuena (2B): Offers solid defense and a decent bat at second base
9. Lou Marson (C): First season starting behind the plate, the team has been impressed with his ability to call a game
Bench:
· Mike Redmond
· Mark Grudzielanek
· Branyan/LaPorta
· Austin Kearns
Starting Rotation:
· Jake Westbrook: Thus far having a solid spring training coming off of Tommy John surgery in 2008. Rumblings have been made about him being traded at the deadline as well
· Fausto Carmona: Tribe fans still hoping for a return to the 2007 form
· Justin Masterson: Posted a 4.55 ERA in 11 appearances; should be a solid rotation contributor this season
· Aaron Laffey: Has been fairly consistent despite being shuffled from the rotation, to the bullpen, and down to AAA
· David Huff: Led the team in wins with 11 last year, despite having a lofty ERA of 5.61
Bullpen
· Kerry Wood (CP): Most likely will not be a fantasy stud for players looking to rack up Saves. (20-26 in Save opportunities in 2009)
· Chris Perez: Likely setup man, as he has a power arm. On occasion had instances of Rick Vaughn wildness in 2009
· Rafael Perez: Hopefully will return to the form of 2007 and 2008, when he was unhittable against left handed hitters
· Joe Smith: One of the more solid middle relief pitchers in 2009; hopefully will pick up more than 37 appearances
· Tony Sipp: As a rookie, posted the lowest ERA among Tribe relievers (2.93), and proved to be very strong against lefties
· Jensen Lewis: Struggled for most of 2009, spending some time in AAA; hopefully can return to the form of 2008 and 2007
· Jeremy Sowers: Currently out of options, and most likely will be on the team as a long-man/sixth starter in case of injury.
Prospects waiting in the wings:
· Pitchers: Hector Ambriz, Carlos Carrasco, Jeanmar Gomez (pitched a perfect game in AA), Hector Rondon, Mitch Talbot, Jess Todd
· Position Players: Catchers Carlos Santana and Wyatt Toregas, Wes Hodges (3B), Outfielders Jordan Brown, Trevor Crowe
Expectations out of Cleveland are not very high on the team, as it does not have significant star power. Thus far the Tribe has had modest success in spring training, and this corner hopes that the team can sneak up on its opponents in April and post a decent record in the first month. As management stated last year, this team is not built to win until 2011 at the earliest; as a result my prediction will be made accordingly:
Final Record: 71-91, fourth place in AL Central
Friday, March 19, 2010
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Radical Politics
The first two days of the NCAA Basketball Tournament should be a national holiday. Call it "Don't Tread on Me Day," in honor if the hopeless underdogs behind whom we throw our collective support every March. Or find some patriotic tie-in to the grand upset, Colonists over the British, which gave our nation its start.
Whatever we call it, its a basic human right that we not have to work or divert ourselves in any way today (and tomorrow too really) from the task at hand of watching endless basketball.
To that end, baseballbreaksyourheart.com will not distract you, dear reader, from basketball today. We will however, tell you all about the Cleveland Indians tomorrow (read it before the noon games tip off), the San Diego Padres on Saturday, and the Minnesota Twins on Sunday.
For now, step away from your computer (or navigate your browser back to CBS for online feed of games) and watch basketball!
And remember to write your congressman about getting these days declared a holiday.
Whatever we call it, its a basic human right that we not have to work or divert ourselves in any way today (and tomorrow too really) from the task at hand of watching endless basketball.
To that end, baseballbreaksyourheart.com will not distract you, dear reader, from basketball today. We will however, tell you all about the Cleveland Indians tomorrow (read it before the noon games tip off), the San Diego Padres on Saturday, and the Minnesota Twins on Sunday.
For now, step away from your computer (or navigate your browser back to CBS for online feed of games) and watch basketball!
And remember to write your congressman about getting these days declared a holiday.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
The Ozzie Show
Last year, as a non-follower of the White Sox, I wrote an Ozzie Guillen-centered preview of the 2009 prospects for the Southsiders. I feel very vindicated as a credible all-around fan knowing that what follows, written by our new resident Sox fan, Mr. Chase Davidson, also views the Pale Hose through the lens of "Ozzie Ozzie Ozzie." Enjoy!
--TQ
It is fitting that the 2010 Chicago White Sox will be featured as the centerpiece of the MLB Network’s reality television series “The Club.” Always entertaining manager Ozzie Guillen, coming off a disappointing 3rd place finish in the AL Central Division, has doubled down on the principles of “Ozzie Ball” in an experiment that could either prove genius, solidifying his place among baseball’s great managers, or devolve into a disaster that will ultimately produce at least one vitriolic, profanity laced tirade for the American viewing public. Either way it should be entertaining for the neutral fan.
The renewed emphasis on pitching, defense, and smart base-running, sees the departure of the aging bats of Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye that hit a combined 50 home runs in 2009. They have been replaced with the speed and guile of Juan Pierre and an experimental DH by committee system that will initially be anchored by former Braves star Andruw Jones. The “Ozzie Ball” philosophy also seems to be the catalyst behind the trade of the once promising Josh Fields and Chris Getz to the Royals for the unspectacular, yet solid Mark Teahen.
Ultimately, the White Sox success will depend on the success of what appears on paper to be one the AL’s strongest pitching staffs, anchored by a healthy Jake Peavy and South Side stalwart Mark Buehrle. If young guns Gavin Floyd (famous for beaning TQ in the head) and John Danks take another step forward in their development and Freddy Garcia surgically repaired shoulder holds up, 90+ wins isn’t outside the realm of possibility. However, a Peavy injury or inconsistency from Floyd and Danks could hamper a team that could struggle to score runs at the levels they have in the past.
The bullpen is also a question mark, despite the presence of dominating southpaw setup man Matt Thornton and White Sox all-time saves leader Bobby Jenks. Jenks showed up to Spring Training fitter, but as a consequence appears to have lost significant velocity off of his fastball. To solidify the relief corps, GM Kenny Williams took a $3 million chance on J.J. Putz, who was plagued by injury in his short tenure with the Mets and traded for promising Diamondbacks reliever Tony Pena.
Projected Starters (AVG/OBP/SLG)
C A.J. Pierzynski .300/.331/.425, 13 HR
1B P. Konerko .277/.353/.489, 28 HR
2B G. Beckham .270/.347/.460, 14 HR
3B M. Teahen .271/.325/.408, 12 HR
SS A. Ramirez .277/.333/.389, 15 HR
LF C. Quentin .236/.323/.456, 21 HR
CF J. Pierre .308/.365/.392, 0 HR
RF A. Rios .247/.296/.395, 17 HR
DH A. Jones .214/.323/.459, 17 HR
Bench Players
C T. Flowers .286/.364/.438, 2 HR (numbers while at AAA Charlotte) OR C R. Castro .219/.292/.406, 7 HR
SS O. Vizquel .266/.316/.345, 1 HR
IF J. Nix .224/.308/.408, 12 HR OR IF B. Lillibridge .158/.273/.179, 0 HR (in 95 PA)
1B/DH M. Kotsay .278/.327/.390, 4 HR
The positives: Pierre provides the lead-off and base stealing threat that Ozzie has craved for years. Quentin looks healthy in spring training. Both Pierzynski and Konerko are both coming off strong seasons (a career season in Pierzynski’s case) and are in the final years of their respective contracts. Beckham, despite a slump toward the end of the season, is poised to become the face of the franchise. Ramirez bounced back from an atrocious first half of the season to put up respectable numbers and seemed more comfortable in his switch to shortstop. Rios can’t possibly play any worse than he did in his first 41 games in Chicago last fall.
The negatives: A line-up that lacks power in a hitter’s ballpark. The rotating DH. A shallow bench anchored by a 34 year old DH/1B without power and a 43 year old player-coach.
Starting Pitchers
J. Peavy 16 GS, 9-6, 101 IP, 3.45, 1.12 WHIP
M. Buehrle 33 GS, 13-10, 213 IP, 3.84, 1.25 WHIP
J. Danks 32 GS, 13-11, 200 IP, 3.77, 1.28 WHIP
G. Floyd 30 GS, 11-11, 193 IP, 4.06, 1.23 WHIP
F. Garcia 9 GS, 3-4, 56 IP, 4.34, 1.21 WHIP
Bullpen
CL B. Jenks 3.71 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 52 G, 8.27 K/9
SET J.J. Putz 5.22 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 29 G, 5.83 K/9
SET M. Thornton 2.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 70 G, 10.83 K/9
RP S. Linebrink 4.66 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 57 G, 8.84 K/9
RP T. Pena 3.99 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 72 G, 7.07 K/9
LR D. Hudson 3.37 ERA, 1.34, 6 G
The positives: A healthy Peavy takes the burden off Buehrle as the ace. Floyd despite the dip in W-Ls actually improved his WHIP in 2009. Garcia may prove to be a bargain as a 5th starter if his shoulder holds up. Thornton and Putz provide a formidable set-up duo.
The negatives: A lighter Jenks seems to have lost his fastball and has looked bad in the spring. Floyd and Danks still haven’t proved they can pitch complete seasons. Linebrink has been an expensive bust.
Best case scenario: Quentin stays healthy, Beckham has a breakout season, Pierre gets on base a lot and scores a ton of runs, Rios returns to his 2007-2008 form, Jones hits 25+ home runs (or the team acquires a DH that will), the pitching staff dominates, and Jenks gets his fastball back, leading to 90+ wins, a Central Division title, and a deep run in the playoffs.
Worst case scenario: Quentin gets hurt, Pierre is exposed as an expensive bust, Beckham suffers a sophomore slump, the offense fails to generate runs, Floyd and Danks are inconsistent, Jenks implodes, and neither Putz nor Thornton can step in adequately as closer leaving Ozzie with another sub .500 season and some tough questions about the feasibility of small ball at a hitter’s park.
--TQ
It is fitting that the 2010 Chicago White Sox will be featured as the centerpiece of the MLB Network’s reality television series “The Club.” Always entertaining manager Ozzie Guillen, coming off a disappointing 3rd place finish in the AL Central Division, has doubled down on the principles of “Ozzie Ball” in an experiment that could either prove genius, solidifying his place among baseball’s great managers, or devolve into a disaster that will ultimately produce at least one vitriolic, profanity laced tirade for the American viewing public. Either way it should be entertaining for the neutral fan.
The renewed emphasis on pitching, defense, and smart base-running, sees the departure of the aging bats of Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye that hit a combined 50 home runs in 2009. They have been replaced with the speed and guile of Juan Pierre and an experimental DH by committee system that will initially be anchored by former Braves star Andruw Jones. The “Ozzie Ball” philosophy also seems to be the catalyst behind the trade of the once promising Josh Fields and Chris Getz to the Royals for the unspectacular, yet solid Mark Teahen.
Ultimately, the White Sox success will depend on the success of what appears on paper to be one the AL’s strongest pitching staffs, anchored by a healthy Jake Peavy and South Side stalwart Mark Buehrle. If young guns Gavin Floyd (famous for beaning TQ in the head) and John Danks take another step forward in their development and Freddy Garcia surgically repaired shoulder holds up, 90+ wins isn’t outside the realm of possibility. However, a Peavy injury or inconsistency from Floyd and Danks could hamper a team that could struggle to score runs at the levels they have in the past.
The bullpen is also a question mark, despite the presence of dominating southpaw setup man Matt Thornton and White Sox all-time saves leader Bobby Jenks. Jenks showed up to Spring Training fitter, but as a consequence appears to have lost significant velocity off of his fastball. To solidify the relief corps, GM Kenny Williams took a $3 million chance on J.J. Putz, who was plagued by injury in his short tenure with the Mets and traded for promising Diamondbacks reliever Tony Pena.
Projected Starters (AVG/OBP/SLG)
C A.J. Pierzynski .300/.331/.425, 13 HR
1B P. Konerko .277/.353/.489, 28 HR
2B G. Beckham .270/.347/.460, 14 HR
3B M. Teahen .271/.325/.408, 12 HR
SS A. Ramirez .277/.333/.389, 15 HR
LF C. Quentin .236/.323/.456, 21 HR
CF J. Pierre .308/.365/.392, 0 HR
RF A. Rios .247/.296/.395, 17 HR
DH A. Jones .214/.323/.459, 17 HR
Bench Players
C T. Flowers .286/.364/.438, 2 HR (numbers while at AAA Charlotte) OR C R. Castro .219/.292/.406, 7 HR
SS O. Vizquel .266/.316/.345, 1 HR
IF J. Nix .224/.308/.408, 12 HR OR IF B. Lillibridge .158/.273/.179, 0 HR (in 95 PA)
1B/DH M. Kotsay .278/.327/.390, 4 HR
The positives: Pierre provides the lead-off and base stealing threat that Ozzie has craved for years. Quentin looks healthy in spring training. Both Pierzynski and Konerko are both coming off strong seasons (a career season in Pierzynski’s case) and are in the final years of their respective contracts. Beckham, despite a slump toward the end of the season, is poised to become the face of the franchise. Ramirez bounced back from an atrocious first half of the season to put up respectable numbers and seemed more comfortable in his switch to shortstop. Rios can’t possibly play any worse than he did in his first 41 games in Chicago last fall.
The negatives: A line-up that lacks power in a hitter’s ballpark. The rotating DH. A shallow bench anchored by a 34 year old DH/1B without power and a 43 year old player-coach.
Starting Pitchers
J. Peavy 16 GS, 9-6, 101 IP, 3.45, 1.12 WHIP
M. Buehrle 33 GS, 13-10, 213 IP, 3.84, 1.25 WHIP
J. Danks 32 GS, 13-11, 200 IP, 3.77, 1.28 WHIP
G. Floyd 30 GS, 11-11, 193 IP, 4.06, 1.23 WHIP
F. Garcia 9 GS, 3-4, 56 IP, 4.34, 1.21 WHIP
Bullpen
CL B. Jenks 3.71 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 52 G, 8.27 K/9
SET J.J. Putz 5.22 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 29 G, 5.83 K/9
SET M. Thornton 2.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 70 G, 10.83 K/9
RP S. Linebrink 4.66 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 57 G, 8.84 K/9
RP T. Pena 3.99 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 72 G, 7.07 K/9
LR D. Hudson 3.37 ERA, 1.34, 6 G
The positives: A healthy Peavy takes the burden off Buehrle as the ace. Floyd despite the dip in W-Ls actually improved his WHIP in 2009. Garcia may prove to be a bargain as a 5th starter if his shoulder holds up. Thornton and Putz provide a formidable set-up duo.
The negatives: A lighter Jenks seems to have lost his fastball and has looked bad in the spring. Floyd and Danks still haven’t proved they can pitch complete seasons. Linebrink has been an expensive bust.
Best case scenario: Quentin stays healthy, Beckham has a breakout season, Pierre gets on base a lot and scores a ton of runs, Rios returns to his 2007-2008 form, Jones hits 25+ home runs (or the team acquires a DH that will), the pitching staff dominates, and Jenks gets his fastball back, leading to 90+ wins, a Central Division title, and a deep run in the playoffs.
Worst case scenario: Quentin gets hurt, Pierre is exposed as an expensive bust, Beckham suffers a sophomore slump, the offense fails to generate runs, Floyd and Danks are inconsistent, Jenks implodes, and neither Putz nor Thornton can step in adequately as closer leaving Ozzie with another sub .500 season and some tough questions about the feasibility of small ball at a hitter’s park.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
The Fab Four: Pitchers
Nope. Not those guys.
In the first half of a two- part March series, Mark Smith gives a peak at four prized pitching prospects that we all may want to remember as 2010 moves forward. Stay tuned later this month for a look at four hitters to watch.
Your top young arm not listed? Feel free to sound off about it. We like feedback.
--TQ
Stephen Strasburg: Almost every baseball fan has heard of Strasburg by now. Last season the only professional work he got in was in the Arizona Fall League where he had 23 strikeouts in only 19 innings. While his AFL work was cut short by a minor knee injury, Stephen has picked up where he left off. In 5 scoreless spring training innings he has 4 strikeouts and has handled all the media attention with ease. Having been hyped up as the best pitching prospect in history is a tall order but so far Strasburg has lived up to the billing.
What to expect in 2010: I do not think the Nats will have him on Opening Day but I am guessing it will be similar to what happened to Lincecum a few years back. He will be sent to AAA and brought up around the middle to end of May to delay his arbitration clock from ticking. I see him having year end stats close to 8-4, 3.50 era, and about 130 K’s in 120 major league innings
Kyle Drabek: As an alumnus of The Woodlands High School I feel like I have to say something about my fellow Highlander Kyle Drabek. So far the biggest thing in his career has been getting traded for Doc Halliday. Drabek was drafted 18th pick in the 2006 amateur draft and has been extremely dominant through the majority of his minor league career. After coming back strong from Tommy John surgery in 2008 he vaulted to the top of the Phillies prospect rankings. While many see him as a future closer, Toronto views him as a top of the rotation starter. Don’t expect him to head north of the border when camp ends but he will definitely make his debut for the Jays sometime this summer.
What to expect in 2010: I do not see him as having a stellar rookie year in the brutal AL East but he will evolve over the next few years as at least a number 2 starter. This year expect about 3-6, 5.50 ERA, and close to 80 K’s in about 90 major league innings.
Brian Matusz: As the first pitcher taken in the 2008 draft, much is expected. As part of the new wave of top prospects in Baltimore there is finally hope in Baltimore for the first time in ages. After having been dominant through all of his minor league stops, Matusz will definitely be donning the Orange and Black early this year, if not on Opeining Day.
What to expect in 2010: Baseball Prospectus has him projected for 7-9, and 106 K’s in about 143 innings with a 5.02 ERA. From what I have heard of Matusz, this sounds right. Even though he is one of the top prospects in the game developing young pitchers in the AL East does not usually work out well. Give Matusz about 2-3 years and he will be a very good pitcher for the up and coming Orioles.
Neftali Feliz: As a part of the prospect theft commited by Jon Daniels as part of the Texiera trade, Feliz is looking like an elite level pitcher. With a 100 mph fastball that looks easy, Perez is ready for the big time. After a great midseason debut for the Rangers last year, expect big things from Neftali. I do not see him closing as he is still young and may not be ready for that type of pressure. So unfortunately he he is going to be much help in fantasy this year, except maybe for some high strikeout numbers He is projected as either a Joba type at the back of the bullpen or has the potential to be a front of the line starter.
What to expect in 2010: Feliz is projected to have about 110 innings and a mid 4 era, mixed as a starter and reliever. I project his ERA to be lower as mostly a reliever. Baseball Prospectus has a 4.60 ERA projected, but to me if he is in the bullpen I see it substantially lower. I think he will be high 2’s to low 3’s as a reliever at the back end of the Rangers bullpen.
The Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates: 2010 Season Preview
Baseballbreaksyourheart.com
Thanks to Mark Murphy for pulling double duty this season. Mark writes the Baltimore Orioles preview each season, he kindly offered to take on the task of covering the team that topped the Orioles in the 1971 and 1979 World Series. The Orioles played the Pirates in the World Series? Twice? Maybe the 70s really were a fun decade.
After a rainout of sorts this weekend because I and 75% of the writers for this blog divide our affection between baseball and Georgetown Hoyas Basketball, today will be a day night doubleheader. This piece on the Pirates will be followed about 7:05 tonight with a second article, Mark Smith's preview of Top Prospects to watch in 2010. Enjoy!
--TQ
When the name “Crosby” appears on the back of a black and gold Pittsburgh jersey, residents of the Steel City smile and think of playoffs and heroics. Unfortunately for the baseball-minded, that Crosby (Sidney) plays center for the defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins, and the Crosby for the Pirates (Bobby) is a utility infielder brought on this offseason. Though things may be headed slowly in the right direction for the Bucs, Crosby and Company are unlikely to make any improvement with respect to their place in the crowded NL Central standings.
During the course of the longest streak of losing seasons in professional sports history, the Pirates have suffered from the fatal combination of a small market and incompetent management. The 2007 introductions of Frank Coonelly as team president and Neal Huntington as general management have begun to produce semblances of a long-term plan, but it is far too premature to predict successes similar to the Tampa Bay Rays. Though the Pirates feature several young prospects, few are considered top-tier, meaning that even the Baltimore Orioles (another team mired in successive losing seasons but with an abundance of prized prospects in the majors and the farm system) probably have a better outlook for the next few years.
Now that is saying something.
Transactions
The offseason was eventful, if not particularly noteworthy, for the Pirates. However, evaluating Pirates’ transactions is a tricky process considering how much in-season turnover often takes place. In addition to Crosby, Pittsburgh acquired Akinori Iwamura and Ryan Church as position players. Iwamura is likely to start at second base, and Church could see significant time in the outfield. On the mound, Pittsburgh welcomes Octavio Dotel, Brendan Donnelly, Javier Lopez, Jack Taschner, D.J. Carrasco, Vinnie Chulk, and Neal Cotts, all slated for the bullpen. Dotel will likely take over the closing duties in place of the departed Matt Capps.
Lineup
The brightest spot on the Pittsburgh Pirates is 23-year-old centerfielder Andrew McCutchen. After joining the team in June of 2009, he posted a .286/.365/.471 line, stole 22 bases, and patrolled the PNC Park outfield with impressive range. His ability to progress and the organization’s ability to keep him for the long term are central to any possibility of building a winning franchise. Former National Lastings Milledge will play left field and posted strong offensive numbers in 2009 after being acquired in exchange for Nyjer Morgan. Garrett Jones will start the season in right field; if he produces at a level he did last year (batting .293 with 21 home runs in only 82 games), his job should be safe.
Not a single member of Pittsburgh’s 2009 opening day infield will be anywhere that serves Primanti Brothers sandwiches. First base will probably go to Jeff Clement, though others will almost certainly get a long look in given situations. Iwamura, formerly of the Rays, will start at second and will be joined up the middle by Ronny Cedeno. Andy LaRoche will guard the hot corner. Crosby could see time at almost any of these positions in his utility role, and Garrett Jones could spell Clement at first. Ryan Doumit is a decent catcher with the tough job of catching Pittsburgh’s pitchers, and he will be backed up by Jason Jaramillo. Defensively, the Pirates had the best fielding percentage in 2009. However, they were in last place in the National League in total runs scored, and, as the next section will explore, the Bucs’ pitching staff will need all the run support it can get.
Pitching
When the Pirates’ starting pitching staff takes the mount, Pittsburgh fans should keep in mind that they can purchase Iron City Beer at games. However, though otherwise a fantastic feature of PNC Park, the open concourse means that even getting a beverage will not shield fans from actually having to watch the game on the field.
Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, and Ross Ohlendorf (not necessarily in that order) will be at the top of the rotation, and, though each has upside, none should necessarily be at the top of a competing team’s staff. Combining Pittsburgh’s NL-leading ERA in 2009 with the aforementioned ranking in runs scored makes the Pirates’ inability to compete wholly unsurprising. The final two spots in the starting rotation appear to remain up for grabs, and, though there were pitching acquisitions made in the offseason, none could be classified as major improvements. The bullpen has some solid pitchers, with Dotel likely closing and Joel Hanrahan, acquired in the same trade that brought Milledge from the Nationals, providing capable setup work, but, beyond that, question marks abound. Brian Bass ate innings and occasionally pitched effectively in relief for the Orioles last year, but, having only signed a minor league contract, he is no guarantee to make the opening day roster.
Conclusion
Manager John Russell has his hands full. The NL Central is a difficult division with too much for Pittsburgh’s unproven pitching staff to handle. Led by McCutchen, there are exciting players and reasons to watch the Pirates this year, but most of the fans, jaded by 17 straight losing seasons, may feel like those bright spots are merely showcased for more successful careers in other cities. Though things may slowly be headed in the right direction and competitiveness may take place within a decade, the most positive aspects of the Pittsburgh Pirates remain an unbelievable ballpark and the Honus Wagner tobacco baseball card.
Final 2010 record: 65-97, 6th place NL Central
Special Thanks:
Wikipedia
Baseball Canadiana
The House That Dewey Built
Baseballbreaksyourheart.com
Thanks to Mark Murphy for pulling double duty this season. Mark writes the Baltimore Orioles preview each season, he kindly offered to take on the task of covering the team that topped the Orioles in the 1971 and 1979 World Series. The Orioles played the Pirates in the World Series? Twice? Maybe the 70s really were a fun decade.
After a rainout of sorts this weekend because I and 75% of the writers for this blog divide our affection between baseball and Georgetown Hoyas Basketball, today will be a day night doubleheader. This piece on the Pirates will be followed about 7:05 tonight with a second article, Mark Smith's preview of Top Prospects to watch in 2010. Enjoy!
--TQ
When the name “Crosby” appears on the back of a black and gold Pittsburgh jersey, residents of the Steel City smile and think of playoffs and heroics. Unfortunately for the baseball-minded, that Crosby (Sidney) plays center for the defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins, and the Crosby for the Pirates (Bobby) is a utility infielder brought on this offseason. Though things may be headed slowly in the right direction for the Bucs, Crosby and Company are unlikely to make any improvement with respect to their place in the crowded NL Central standings.
During the course of the longest streak of losing seasons in professional sports history, the Pirates have suffered from the fatal combination of a small market and incompetent management. The 2007 introductions of Frank Coonelly as team president and Neal Huntington as general management have begun to produce semblances of a long-term plan, but it is far too premature to predict successes similar to the Tampa Bay Rays. Though the Pirates feature several young prospects, few are considered top-tier, meaning that even the Baltimore Orioles (another team mired in successive losing seasons but with an abundance of prized prospects in the majors and the farm system) probably have a better outlook for the next few years.
Now that is saying something.
Transactions
The offseason was eventful, if not particularly noteworthy, for the Pirates. However, evaluating Pirates’ transactions is a tricky process considering how much in-season turnover often takes place. In addition to Crosby, Pittsburgh acquired Akinori Iwamura and Ryan Church as position players. Iwamura is likely to start at second base, and Church could see significant time in the outfield. On the mound, Pittsburgh welcomes Octavio Dotel, Brendan Donnelly, Javier Lopez, Jack Taschner, D.J. Carrasco, Vinnie Chulk, and Neal Cotts, all slated for the bullpen. Dotel will likely take over the closing duties in place of the departed Matt Capps.
Lineup
The brightest spot on the Pittsburgh Pirates is 23-year-old centerfielder Andrew McCutchen. After joining the team in June of 2009, he posted a .286/.365/.471 line, stole 22 bases, and patrolled the PNC Park outfield with impressive range. His ability to progress and the organization’s ability to keep him for the long term are central to any possibility of building a winning franchise. Former National Lastings Milledge will play left field and posted strong offensive numbers in 2009 after being acquired in exchange for Nyjer Morgan. Garrett Jones will start the season in right field; if he produces at a level he did last year (batting .293 with 21 home runs in only 82 games), his job should be safe.
Not a single member of Pittsburgh’s 2009 opening day infield will be anywhere that serves Primanti Brothers sandwiches. First base will probably go to Jeff Clement, though others will almost certainly get a long look in given situations. Iwamura, formerly of the Rays, will start at second and will be joined up the middle by Ronny Cedeno. Andy LaRoche will guard the hot corner. Crosby could see time at almost any of these positions in his utility role, and Garrett Jones could spell Clement at first. Ryan Doumit is a decent catcher with the tough job of catching Pittsburgh’s pitchers, and he will be backed up by Jason Jaramillo. Defensively, the Pirates had the best fielding percentage in 2009. However, they were in last place in the National League in total runs scored, and, as the next section will explore, the Bucs’ pitching staff will need all the run support it can get.
Pitching
When the Pirates’ starting pitching staff takes the mount, Pittsburgh fans should keep in mind that they can purchase Iron City Beer at games. However, though otherwise a fantastic feature of PNC Park, the open concourse means that even getting a beverage will not shield fans from actually having to watch the game on the field.
Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, and Ross Ohlendorf (not necessarily in that order) will be at the top of the rotation, and, though each has upside, none should necessarily be at the top of a competing team’s staff. Combining Pittsburgh’s NL-leading ERA in 2009 with the aforementioned ranking in runs scored makes the Pirates’ inability to compete wholly unsurprising. The final two spots in the starting rotation appear to remain up for grabs, and, though there were pitching acquisitions made in the offseason, none could be classified as major improvements. The bullpen has some solid pitchers, with Dotel likely closing and Joel Hanrahan, acquired in the same trade that brought Milledge from the Nationals, providing capable setup work, but, beyond that, question marks abound. Brian Bass ate innings and occasionally pitched effectively in relief for the Orioles last year, but, having only signed a minor league contract, he is no guarantee to make the opening day roster.
Conclusion
Manager John Russell has his hands full. The NL Central is a difficult division with too much for Pittsburgh’s unproven pitching staff to handle. Led by McCutchen, there are exciting players and reasons to watch the Pirates this year, but most of the fans, jaded by 17 straight losing seasons, may feel like those bright spots are merely showcased for more successful careers in other cities. Though things may slowly be headed in the right direction and competitiveness may take place within a decade, the most positive aspects of the Pittsburgh Pirates remain an unbelievable ballpark and the Honus Wagner tobacco baseball card.
Final 2010 record: 65-97, 6th place NL Central
Special Thanks:
Wikipedia
Baseball Canadiana
The House That Dewey Built
Monday, March 15, 2010
The Seattle Mariners
There are 2 ways to guarantee that I enjoy reading a baseball article: 1) Mention "Bedard for Jones" and 2) Reference the unfortunate saga of Adrian Beltre's man parts. Paul Campbell, covering Seattle here for a second straight year, does both of those. He also gives a thorough and honest assessment of the state of the Seattle ball club. And for his bold prediction of October baseball in the Great Northwest, I tip my cap in his direction. This is a very enjoyable read.
--TQ
2009 Recap
In the eyes of the national media, the Mariners were a surprise success, rebounding from baseball’s first $100 million payroll / 100 loss season in 2008 to post an 85-77 record, finishing third in the AL West. The team’s rapid change of fortune can be primarily attributed to first-year GM Jack Zduriencik and his statistically- and defensively-minded front office.
2010 Offseason Moves
Out
C Kenji Johjima, watching his playing time decline along with his productivity in 2009, did the Mariners a favor by opting out of the final two years of his contract and returning to Japan without demanding a buyout, freeing about $8 million in payroll in 2010 and 2011.
1B/DH Russell Branyan, the team’s primary source of power in 2009 (.251/.347/.520/.368 wOBA), declined a one-year extension and opted to test free agency, where he returned to Cleveland. Uncertainty about his health and 2009 back injuries likely played a role in his inability to get a multi-year contract anywhere, as the Indians signed him to a 1/$2M contract for 2010.
3B Adrian Beltre (.305 wOBA / 2.4 WAR in 2009), he of the torn testicle, self-checking swing, and many other eccentricities, also declined to sign a new contract with the Mariners, choosing instead to try to boost his offensive numbers in the friendlier environment of Fenway Park, signing a one-year deal with the Red Sox.
SP/RP-R Brandon Morrow, SP/RP-L Philippe Aumont, and SP/RP-R Carlos Silva all left the organization with the sort of clarity that they never experienced while Mariners. Morrow and the club both equivocated over his value as a starter or out of the bullpen, and the one-time closer never firmly established a role. Likewise, former top draft pick Philippe Aumont was converted to a reliever within the Mariner minor league system, but will apparently return to starting with the Phillies. Carlos Silva alternated between the rotation and the bullpen because he just plain sucked and if I say much more about him I’ll be angry. Enjoy Chicago, you asshat.
Also out: RP Chris Jakubauskus (to PIT), AAA SP Justin Thomas (to PIT), AA SP JC Ramirez (to PHI), AA OF Tyson Gillies (to PHI), UT Bill Hall (to BOS),AA RP Gaby Hernandez (to BOS). None of these players were likely to make a significant impact in 2010. The closest was Hall, who spent an unremarkable second half of 2009 in Seattle before being traded to the Red Sox in the offseason
In
SP-L CLIFF LEE! Cliff Lee (3.63 tRA / 5.6 WAR in 2009) pitching in Safeco, in front of the Mariners’ vaunted defense, makes me tingly inside. Lee, acquired via trade December 18 and therefore possibly the best Christmas present ever, only has one year remaining on his contract but it should be a year to watch, as he will pair with Felix Hernandez to form one of the most formidable 1-2 combinations of any rotation in baseball.
3B-B Chone Figgins: The dismantling of the Angels dynasty was rapid, with two of LA’s most productive players leaving Anaheim in the offseason. The Mariners were the beneficiary of one of the departures, signing Figgins to a 4/$36M contract. Figgins is coming off the most productive season of his career, as he posted a .358 wOBA and was an elite defensive 3B, posting a +16.3 UZR in 2009. All told, Figgins was worth 6.1 wins above replacement in 2009, and while that level of performance is unlikely to be repeated in 2010, Figgins is an extremely valuable player and will fill the void left by Adrian Beltre’s absence if not similarly, then approximately. Figgins doesn’t have anywhere near Beltre’s power but gets on base at an impressive clip and is equally proficient in the field.
LF/DH-B Milton Bradley: Milton Bradley for Carlos Silva may be the greatest trade pulled off anywhere in baseball this offseason. Cubs and Mariners fans alike are ecstatic to be rid of their team’s problem children. The difference between the two is that Milton Bradley, when healthy and sane, is still a productive baseball player. Bradley will probably split time between LF and DH. The Mariners will look to get his bat in the lineup especially against LHPs.
1B-L Casey Kotchman and 1B/DH-R Ryan Garko: These two are likely to platoon at first, with both picking up occasional DH at-bats and Garko potentially filling in at the corner outfield spots if injury forces the Mariners' hand. Neither will replicate the power production of Branyan, but as platoon partners they may come close to replicating his total offensive value. Production will come more from walks, gap power, and not striking out as hilariously often as Branyan.
RP-R Brandon League: League came from Toronto in exchange for the Mariners’ Brandon, and will occupy his spot in the bullpen as a late-inning setup man for nominal closer David Aardsma. League’s splitter is one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball, so there’s that.
Also in: OF Eric Byrnes, C Josh Bard, RP Yusmeiro Petit, RP Kanekoa Texeira, some other guys who oh my god they are boring and you probably shouldn’t care about them.
2010 Outlook
Offense
The 2010 Seattle Mariners were not constructed to score runs. The 2009 team scored only 640 runs, lowest in the American League, and improving the offense has not been an explicit priority of the front office in the offseason.
Projected Lineup (2010 projected AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA from CHONE, via Fangraphs)
C Rob Johnson (.244/303/350/289)
1B (L) Casey Kotchman (.265/333/401/325) / (R) Ryan Garko (.261/337/424/336)
2B Jose Lopez (.283/316/449/331)
SS Jack Wilson (.255/299/359/291)
3B Chone Figgins (.272/370/358/334)
LF (R) Milton Bradley (.262/368/427/353) / (L) Ryan Langerhans (.229/323/375/311)
CF Franklin Gutierrez (.270/327/420/329)
RF Ichiro Suzuki (.313/346/410/338)
UT-L Jack Hannahan (.225/322/347/302)
OF-R Eric Byrnes (.233/288/373/295)
C-R Adam Moore (.251/307/381/304)
“DH”-L Ken Griffey Jr. (.217/308/368/304)
Defense
Team defense was the Mariners' calling card in 2009, and the 2010 team is constructed to be even stronger defensively. This is what getting rid of Yuniesky Betancourt, whose bafflingly regular playing time in Kansas City puts him in consideration for the dubious honor of worst player in baseball* and getting a full season of plus-defensive SS Jack Wilson will do for you. On balance, the Mariners' offseason transactions mitigated against the loss of the defensively outstanding Adrian Beltre, and improved the team's defense at 1B with the substitution of the Kotchman/Garko platoon for Branyan. Still roaming Safeco will be Jose Lopez, Ichiro Suzuki, and Franklin Gutierrez, who put up the best defensive season by UZR since the statistic was created, an astounding 29.6 runs above average in CF. Franklin Gutierrez was one of the most productive players in all of baseball last year. He is a gentleman and a scholar.
*This is no exaggeration: By Wins Above Replacement, Yuniesky Betancourt was far and away the worst player in baseball in 2009, somehow managing to suck without getting benched/sent to AAA/shipped back to Cuba to a 2.2 wins below replacement performance. That such a consistently poor player kept getting time makes you wonder how Dayton Moore still has a job.
Individual defensive metrics are still inexact compared to their offensive counterparts, so assigning defensive values to players is best done as a general range of how many runs above/below average their glove is worth. That said, based on previous years' UZR data with some adjustment for aging here are the 2010 Mariners:
1B Kotchman/Garko (platoon) +10>x>0
2B Jose Lopez +5>x>-5
SS Jack Wilson +10>x>0
3B Chone Figgins +15>x>+5
LF Bradley/Langerhans (platoon) +5>x>-5
CF Franklin Gutierrez +20>x>+10
RF Ichiro Suzuki +15>x>+5
Pitching
The 2009 Mariners were an interesting experiment: Could you take a mediocre pitcher, put him in a pitcher-friendly park, give him the best defensive outfield in baseball, and make him look spectacular? Following what transpired last year, I move that the park+defense combination boosting an otherwise average pitcher to ridiculous hype be named the Jarrod Washburn Corollary. Washburn, changing very little in his fundamental performance, ran a sub-3.00 ERA for long enough for him to be dangled out as a shiny thing on the trade market that Detroit was cooperative enough to snap up, sending Washburn to Comerica Park with predictable results.
Rotation (2010 projected IP, FIP from CHONE, via Fangraphs)
SP-R Felix Hernandez (200 IP, 3.34 FIP)
I can't believe that I just talked about the 2009 Mariners starting pitching by bringing up Jarrod Washburn when King Felix was there for the mentioning as well. The King finally ascended to his throne in 2009, turning in a dominating performance by just about any metric available on his way to finishing 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting to an other-worldly Zack Greinke.
SP-L Cliff Lee (197, 3.43)
I assume most people know of Cliff Lee from his Cy Young-winning exploits and World Series appearances with the Indians and Phillies, so there's little point in rehashing just how consistently productive Lee is. And he's going to be the #2 pitcher to Felix. And Felix will be turning only 24 years old around Opening Day. I can't stress this enough. Assuming he stays healthy, Felix could be one of the best pitchers in baseball for a long time. And he now has a long-term deal in place in Seattle.
SP-L Ryan Rowland-Smith (160, 4.46)
Ryan Rowland-Smith was converted into a full-time starter in 2009, coming up from Tacoma to notch 15 thoroughly adequate starts. He's not an amazing talent, a pitch to contact moderate flyballer who benefited from a low BABIP and a low HR/FB rate last year, but he delivers average performance for league-minimum salary, is Australian, and seems like a cool enough guy, so Mariners fans love him.
SP-L Ian Snell (175, 4.49)
Ian Snell, by all accounts, hated Pittsburgh to the point where he refused to be promoted back from AAA because he was depressed to be in the majors. I bring up this point for no particular reason other than to point out that Pittsburgh blows. He's apparently much happier in Seattle; unfortunately, the pitching is still a work in progress. The Mariners are trying to reclaim the pitcher that appeared to be on the verge of a long successful career in 2007, but the trend isn't looking good, with Snell posting worse numbers across the board in 2009. Talent alone makes him a perpetual high-upside starter, but right now there are questions about whether his mechanics and psyche will ever be put together enough for him to find sustained success at the major league level.
SP-? Spring Training Winner / SP-L Erik Bedard (106, 3.64)
The Mariners fifth starter will probably depend on spring training performances, with 2009 revelation Doug Fister, Jason Vargas, Garrett Olson, and Lucas French the most likely candidates to pick up the spot. None of them are all that interesting, and Lucas French may be actively trying to bore you with his Jarrod Washburn impersonation. What he has against you that makes him want to kill your fun I'm not sure, but you'll have to take that up with him.
Also, Erik Bedard...God. Erik Bedard. It's not that we don't like you, Erik, it's that the only saving grace of the trade that brought you to Seattle [and gave Baltimore Adam Jones, George Sherrill, and three pitching prospects] was that it may have been what ultimately sealed the fate of the former front office. Free agent Bedard signed a one-year contract to return to the Mariners in the offseason, but recovery from surgery will push the 2010 debut of Bedard and his shiny bionic labrum to mid-season at earliest. Erik Bedard has made maybe ten starts as a fully-healthy member of the Mariners in two years, and has been exceptional in those starts. If all surgery and rehab procedures go well and Bedard can actually stay healthy*, he may be the best #3 starter in the AL.
* No way this happens.
Bullpen
CL-R David Aardsma
Aardsma might be the most terrifying closer ever to save 38 of 42 opportunities. In 2009, he struck out 27.1% of batters faced but also walked an above-average 11.5%. The real concern, though, is his tendency to give up warning-track fly balls. Either David Aardsma is some freak anomaly who has figured out how to give up long but harmless fly balls, or his 4% HR/FB is due for some serious regression, and when you allow 54% fly balls as a closer, regression translates to a lot of 9th inning home runs given up.
RP-R Shawn Kelley
Kelley is a two-pitch reliever with a low-90s fastball and a capable slider. His changeup is largely ineffectual and rarely thrown. Kelley missed two months of his rookie season with an oblique injury, and there are concerns over whether he suffered any ill effects, but the velocity on his fastball returned following his injury.
RP-R Mark Lowe
Lowe brings slightly higher velocity than Kelley, with his fastball topping out in the mid-90s region on average. A pretty standard setup guy, with an ability to strike batters out nothing exceptional, with the exception of his slider, which took a leap forward in effectiveness in 2009.
RP-R Brandon League
League, like Lowe and Kelley, will be a potential replacement should regression catch up to David Aardsma and causes him to lose the closer role. League is fascinating in that he was once a fastball-dominant pitcher who introduced a splitter in 2009 that promptly became the most effective pitch at generating swinging strikes in all of baseball. 35% of splitters thrown were swung at and missed, an absurd percentage that is five percentage points above the second most-effective (Ryan Madson's changeup, if you're interested). It is an absolute thing of beauty to behold, and could be the secret to League developing sustained success as a Mariner.
RP-R Kanekoa Texeira
I put Kanekoa Texeira here because there are two things I know about Kanekoa Texeira: (a) he was a Rule 5 pick from the Yankees which means he either has to stay on the major league roster or go back to New York and (b) his name is spelled differently than Mark Teixeira's. I anticipate Kanekoa Texeira being boringly adequate as a middle reliever, and really, that's all you can ask out of your 6th/7th inning pitchers.
Other names that will probably make use of the convenient 30-minute drive between Seattle and the Mariners' AAA affiliate in Tacoma include Sean White, Josh Fields, and Mike Koplove. If any of them play a prominent role in the Mariners' fortunes then something has gone horribly, horribly wrong.
Outlook / Projection
Two years ago, the Mariners’ previous GM, Bill Bavasi, was optimistic for the coming year. The Mariners were coming off a season in which they had won 88 games and challenged for the playoffs, and the approach was one of incremental improvement. Unfortunately, 2007 was a fluke and the 2008 roster had deep, systemic issues that could not be improved by marginal improvements. This became abundantly clear as the team staggered to a 101-loss season, ultimately costing Bavasi his job. (I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Erik Bedard-Adam Jones trade probably expedited his dismissal. Good looking out, Baltimore.)
This year, the Mariners are coming off an 85-win season in which they only scored 640 runs and were outscored. That would seemingly be a recipe for Fluke ver. 2, yet this year is different. The 2009 roster was not really a 640-run team by true talent, as a combination of individual bad luck and a total lack of offensive production from 3B, SS, and LF made theMariners look artificially anemic. The 2010 roster will not amaze anyone offensively, and may be downright mediocre, but that is not where the Mariners have chosen to compete.
The 2010 Mariners are built on a foundation of pitching and defense. The pitching is highlighted by one former Cy Young winner and a 24 year old who is coming off the best year of his career, when he nearly picked up a Cy Young in his own right. There are questions about the back of the rotation, especially in the first half of the season until Erik Bedard returns to claim the #3 starter spot, but the top of the rotation will compete with any in baseball as the most dominant collection of pitching talent on a single roster.
The defense that was one of the best in baseball in 2009 has been bolstered by the addition of Wilson at short, Kotchman and Garko at first, and Figgins at third, to complement a simply stellar outfield anchored by Gutierrez. There will be very few balls put in play that are guaranteed hits with this defense.
The AL West is going to be a notoriously difficult division this year. Both Oakland and Texas have added high-risk, high-reward pitchers who are staff aces when healthy, in Ben Sheets and Rich Harden respectively. In fact, the Angels, dominant in the division for the past five years, are the only team that did not make significant improvements in the offseason, yet remain a threat to win the division.
The 2010 Mariners season will manifest in an odd boom-or-bust phenomenon. On pure talent the Mariners may be the best team in the AL West, but will rely on winning low-scoring games to outpace their division rivals. If they can manage to find their way into the playoffs, though, the roster is constructed for short-series success with an unmatched top of the rotation and an elite defense. As constructed, I see no reason why the Mariners couldn't win the World Series, but getting their foot in the door will be a bigger challenge.
Bold prediction: 90-72, and a very close 1st place in the AL West. Lose in the ALCS to the Red Sox or Yankees.
--TQ
2009 Recap
In the eyes of the national media, the Mariners were a surprise success, rebounding from baseball’s first $100 million payroll / 100 loss season in 2008 to post an 85-77 record, finishing third in the AL West. The team’s rapid change of fortune can be primarily attributed to first-year GM Jack Zduriencik and his statistically- and defensively-minded front office.
2010 Offseason Moves
Out
C Kenji Johjima, watching his playing time decline along with his productivity in 2009, did the Mariners a favor by opting out of the final two years of his contract and returning to Japan without demanding a buyout, freeing about $8 million in payroll in 2010 and 2011.
1B/DH Russell Branyan, the team’s primary source of power in 2009 (.251/.347/.520/.368 wOBA), declined a one-year extension and opted to test free agency, where he returned to Cleveland. Uncertainty about his health and 2009 back injuries likely played a role in his inability to get a multi-year contract anywhere, as the Indians signed him to a 1/$2M contract for 2010.
3B Adrian Beltre (.305 wOBA / 2.4 WAR in 2009), he of the torn testicle, self-checking swing, and many other eccentricities, also declined to sign a new contract with the Mariners, choosing instead to try to boost his offensive numbers in the friendlier environment of Fenway Park, signing a one-year deal with the Red Sox.
SP/RP-R Brandon Morrow, SP/RP-L Philippe Aumont, and SP/RP-R Carlos Silva all left the organization with the sort of clarity that they never experienced while Mariners. Morrow and the club both equivocated over his value as a starter or out of the bullpen, and the one-time closer never firmly established a role. Likewise, former top draft pick Philippe Aumont was converted to a reliever within the Mariner minor league system, but will apparently return to starting with the Phillies. Carlos Silva alternated between the rotation and the bullpen because he just plain sucked and if I say much more about him I’ll be angry. Enjoy Chicago, you asshat.
Also out: RP Chris Jakubauskus (to PIT), AAA SP Justin Thomas (to PIT), AA SP JC Ramirez (to PHI), AA OF Tyson Gillies (to PHI), UT Bill Hall (to BOS),AA RP Gaby Hernandez (to BOS). None of these players were likely to make a significant impact in 2010. The closest was Hall, who spent an unremarkable second half of 2009 in Seattle before being traded to the Red Sox in the offseason
In
SP-L CLIFF LEE! Cliff Lee (3.63 tRA / 5.6 WAR in 2009) pitching in Safeco, in front of the Mariners’ vaunted defense, makes me tingly inside. Lee, acquired via trade December 18 and therefore possibly the best Christmas present ever, only has one year remaining on his contract but it should be a year to watch, as he will pair with Felix Hernandez to form one of the most formidable 1-2 combinations of any rotation in baseball.
3B-B Chone Figgins: The dismantling of the Angels dynasty was rapid, with two of LA’s most productive players leaving Anaheim in the offseason. The Mariners were the beneficiary of one of the departures, signing Figgins to a 4/$36M contract. Figgins is coming off the most productive season of his career, as he posted a .358 wOBA and was an elite defensive 3B, posting a +16.3 UZR in 2009. All told, Figgins was worth 6.1 wins above replacement in 2009, and while that level of performance is unlikely to be repeated in 2010, Figgins is an extremely valuable player and will fill the void left by Adrian Beltre’s absence if not similarly, then approximately. Figgins doesn’t have anywhere near Beltre’s power but gets on base at an impressive clip and is equally proficient in the field.
LF/DH-B Milton Bradley: Milton Bradley for Carlos Silva may be the greatest trade pulled off anywhere in baseball this offseason. Cubs and Mariners fans alike are ecstatic to be rid of their team’s problem children. The difference between the two is that Milton Bradley, when healthy and sane, is still a productive baseball player. Bradley will probably split time between LF and DH. The Mariners will look to get his bat in the lineup especially against LHPs.
1B-L Casey Kotchman and 1B/DH-R Ryan Garko: These two are likely to platoon at first, with both picking up occasional DH at-bats and Garko potentially filling in at the corner outfield spots if injury forces the Mariners' hand. Neither will replicate the power production of Branyan, but as platoon partners they may come close to replicating his total offensive value. Production will come more from walks, gap power, and not striking out as hilariously often as Branyan.
RP-R Brandon League: League came from Toronto in exchange for the Mariners’ Brandon, and will occupy his spot in the bullpen as a late-inning setup man for nominal closer David Aardsma. League’s splitter is one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball, so there’s that.
Also in: OF Eric Byrnes, C Josh Bard, RP Yusmeiro Petit, RP Kanekoa Texeira, some other guys who oh my god they are boring and you probably shouldn’t care about them.
2010 Outlook
Offense
The 2010 Seattle Mariners were not constructed to score runs. The 2009 team scored only 640 runs, lowest in the American League, and improving the offense has not been an explicit priority of the front office in the offseason.
Projected Lineup (2010 projected AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA from CHONE, via Fangraphs)
C Rob Johnson (.244/303/350/289)
1B (L) Casey Kotchman (.265/333/401/325) / (R) Ryan Garko (.261/337/424/336)
2B Jose Lopez (.283/316/449/331)
SS Jack Wilson (.255/299/359/291)
3B Chone Figgins (.272/370/358/334)
LF (R) Milton Bradley (.262/368/427/353) / (L) Ryan Langerhans (.229/323/375/311)
CF Franklin Gutierrez (.270/327/420/329)
RF Ichiro Suzuki (.313/346/410/338)
UT-L Jack Hannahan (.225/322/347/302)
OF-R Eric Byrnes (.233/288/373/295)
C-R Adam Moore (.251/307/381/304)
“DH”-L Ken Griffey Jr. (.217/308/368/304)
Defense
Team defense was the Mariners' calling card in 2009, and the 2010 team is constructed to be even stronger defensively. This is what getting rid of Yuniesky Betancourt, whose bafflingly regular playing time in Kansas City puts him in consideration for the dubious honor of worst player in baseball* and getting a full season of plus-defensive SS Jack Wilson will do for you. On balance, the Mariners' offseason transactions mitigated against the loss of the defensively outstanding Adrian Beltre, and improved the team's defense at 1B with the substitution of the Kotchman/Garko platoon for Branyan. Still roaming Safeco will be Jose Lopez, Ichiro Suzuki, and Franklin Gutierrez, who put up the best defensive season by UZR since the statistic was created, an astounding 29.6 runs above average in CF. Franklin Gutierrez was one of the most productive players in all of baseball last year. He is a gentleman and a scholar.
*This is no exaggeration: By Wins Above Replacement, Yuniesky Betancourt was far and away the worst player in baseball in 2009, somehow managing to suck without getting benched/sent to AAA/shipped back to Cuba to a 2.2 wins below replacement performance. That such a consistently poor player kept getting time makes you wonder how Dayton Moore still has a job.
Individual defensive metrics are still inexact compared to their offensive counterparts, so assigning defensive values to players is best done as a general range of how many runs above/below average their glove is worth. That said, based on previous years' UZR data with some adjustment for aging here are the 2010 Mariners:
1B Kotchman/Garko (platoon) +10>x>0
2B Jose Lopez +5>x>-5
SS Jack Wilson +10>x>0
3B Chone Figgins +15>x>+5
LF Bradley/Langerhans (platoon) +5>x>-5
CF Franklin Gutierrez +20>x>+10
RF Ichiro Suzuki +15>x>+5
Pitching
The 2009 Mariners were an interesting experiment: Could you take a mediocre pitcher, put him in a pitcher-friendly park, give him the best defensive outfield in baseball, and make him look spectacular? Following what transpired last year, I move that the park+defense combination boosting an otherwise average pitcher to ridiculous hype be named the Jarrod Washburn Corollary. Washburn, changing very little in his fundamental performance, ran a sub-3.00 ERA for long enough for him to be dangled out as a shiny thing on the trade market that Detroit was cooperative enough to snap up, sending Washburn to Comerica Park with predictable results.
Rotation (2010 projected IP, FIP from CHONE, via Fangraphs)
SP-R Felix Hernandez (200 IP, 3.34 FIP)
I can't believe that I just talked about the 2009 Mariners starting pitching by bringing up Jarrod Washburn when King Felix was there for the mentioning as well. The King finally ascended to his throne in 2009, turning in a dominating performance by just about any metric available on his way to finishing 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting to an other-worldly Zack Greinke.
SP-L Cliff Lee (197, 3.43)
I assume most people know of Cliff Lee from his Cy Young-winning exploits and World Series appearances with the Indians and Phillies, so there's little point in rehashing just how consistently productive Lee is. And he's going to be the #2 pitcher to Felix. And Felix will be turning only 24 years old around Opening Day. I can't stress this enough. Assuming he stays healthy, Felix could be one of the best pitchers in baseball for a long time. And he now has a long-term deal in place in Seattle.
SP-L Ryan Rowland-Smith (160, 4.46)
Ryan Rowland-Smith was converted into a full-time starter in 2009, coming up from Tacoma to notch 15 thoroughly adequate starts. He's not an amazing talent, a pitch to contact moderate flyballer who benefited from a low BABIP and a low HR/FB rate last year, but he delivers average performance for league-minimum salary, is Australian, and seems like a cool enough guy, so Mariners fans love him.
SP-L Ian Snell (175, 4.49)
Ian Snell, by all accounts, hated Pittsburgh to the point where he refused to be promoted back from AAA because he was depressed to be in the majors. I bring up this point for no particular reason other than to point out that Pittsburgh blows. He's apparently much happier in Seattle; unfortunately, the pitching is still a work in progress. The Mariners are trying to reclaim the pitcher that appeared to be on the verge of a long successful career in 2007, but the trend isn't looking good, with Snell posting worse numbers across the board in 2009. Talent alone makes him a perpetual high-upside starter, but right now there are questions about whether his mechanics and psyche will ever be put together enough for him to find sustained success at the major league level.
SP-? Spring Training Winner / SP-L Erik Bedard (106, 3.64)
The Mariners fifth starter will probably depend on spring training performances, with 2009 revelation Doug Fister, Jason Vargas, Garrett Olson, and Lucas French the most likely candidates to pick up the spot. None of them are all that interesting, and Lucas French may be actively trying to bore you with his Jarrod Washburn impersonation. What he has against you that makes him want to kill your fun I'm not sure, but you'll have to take that up with him.
Also, Erik Bedard...God. Erik Bedard. It's not that we don't like you, Erik, it's that the only saving grace of the trade that brought you to Seattle [and gave Baltimore Adam Jones, George Sherrill, and three pitching prospects] was that it may have been what ultimately sealed the fate of the former front office. Free agent Bedard signed a one-year contract to return to the Mariners in the offseason, but recovery from surgery will push the 2010 debut of Bedard and his shiny bionic labrum to mid-season at earliest. Erik Bedard has made maybe ten starts as a fully-healthy member of the Mariners in two years, and has been exceptional in those starts. If all surgery and rehab procedures go well and Bedard can actually stay healthy*, he may be the best #3 starter in the AL.
* No way this happens.
Bullpen
CL-R David Aardsma
Aardsma might be the most terrifying closer ever to save 38 of 42 opportunities. In 2009, he struck out 27.1% of batters faced but also walked an above-average 11.5%. The real concern, though, is his tendency to give up warning-track fly balls. Either David Aardsma is some freak anomaly who has figured out how to give up long but harmless fly balls, or his 4% HR/FB is due for some serious regression, and when you allow 54% fly balls as a closer, regression translates to a lot of 9th inning home runs given up.
RP-R Shawn Kelley
Kelley is a two-pitch reliever with a low-90s fastball and a capable slider. His changeup is largely ineffectual and rarely thrown. Kelley missed two months of his rookie season with an oblique injury, and there are concerns over whether he suffered any ill effects, but the velocity on his fastball returned following his injury.
RP-R Mark Lowe
Lowe brings slightly higher velocity than Kelley, with his fastball topping out in the mid-90s region on average. A pretty standard setup guy, with an ability to strike batters out nothing exceptional, with the exception of his slider, which took a leap forward in effectiveness in 2009.
RP-R Brandon League
League, like Lowe and Kelley, will be a potential replacement should regression catch up to David Aardsma and causes him to lose the closer role. League is fascinating in that he was once a fastball-dominant pitcher who introduced a splitter in 2009 that promptly became the most effective pitch at generating swinging strikes in all of baseball. 35% of splitters thrown were swung at and missed, an absurd percentage that is five percentage points above the second most-effective (Ryan Madson's changeup, if you're interested). It is an absolute thing of beauty to behold, and could be the secret to League developing sustained success as a Mariner.
RP-R Kanekoa Texeira
I put Kanekoa Texeira here because there are two things I know about Kanekoa Texeira: (a) he was a Rule 5 pick from the Yankees which means he either has to stay on the major league roster or go back to New York and (b) his name is spelled differently than Mark Teixeira's. I anticipate Kanekoa Texeira being boringly adequate as a middle reliever, and really, that's all you can ask out of your 6th/7th inning pitchers.
Other names that will probably make use of the convenient 30-minute drive between Seattle and the Mariners' AAA affiliate in Tacoma include Sean White, Josh Fields, and Mike Koplove. If any of them play a prominent role in the Mariners' fortunes then something has gone horribly, horribly wrong.
Outlook / Projection
Two years ago, the Mariners’ previous GM, Bill Bavasi, was optimistic for the coming year. The Mariners were coming off a season in which they had won 88 games and challenged for the playoffs, and the approach was one of incremental improvement. Unfortunately, 2007 was a fluke and the 2008 roster had deep, systemic issues that could not be improved by marginal improvements. This became abundantly clear as the team staggered to a 101-loss season, ultimately costing Bavasi his job. (I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Erik Bedard-Adam Jones trade probably expedited his dismissal. Good looking out, Baltimore.)
This year, the Mariners are coming off an 85-win season in which they only scored 640 runs and were outscored. That would seemingly be a recipe for Fluke ver. 2, yet this year is different. The 2009 roster was not really a 640-run team by true talent, as a combination of individual bad luck and a total lack of offensive production from 3B, SS, and LF made theMariners look artificially anemic. The 2010 roster will not amaze anyone offensively, and may be downright mediocre, but that is not where the Mariners have chosen to compete.
The 2010 Mariners are built on a foundation of pitching and defense. The pitching is highlighted by one former Cy Young winner and a 24 year old who is coming off the best year of his career, when he nearly picked up a Cy Young in his own right. There are questions about the back of the rotation, especially in the first half of the season until Erik Bedard returns to claim the #3 starter spot, but the top of the rotation will compete with any in baseball as the most dominant collection of pitching talent on a single roster.
The defense that was one of the best in baseball in 2009 has been bolstered by the addition of Wilson at short, Kotchman and Garko at first, and Figgins at third, to complement a simply stellar outfield anchored by Gutierrez. There will be very few balls put in play that are guaranteed hits with this defense.
The AL West is going to be a notoriously difficult division this year. Both Oakland and Texas have added high-risk, high-reward pitchers who are staff aces when healthy, in Ben Sheets and Rich Harden respectively. In fact, the Angels, dominant in the division for the past five years, are the only team that did not make significant improvements in the offseason, yet remain a threat to win the division.
The 2010 Mariners season will manifest in an odd boom-or-bust phenomenon. On pure talent the Mariners may be the best team in the AL West, but will rely on winning low-scoring games to outpace their division rivals. If they can manage to find their way into the playoffs, though, the roster is constructed for short-series success with an unmatched top of the rotation and an elite defense. As constructed, I see no reason why the Mariners couldn't win the World Series, but getting their foot in the door will be a bigger challenge.
Bold prediction: 90-72, and a very close 1st place in the AL West. Lose in the ALCS to the Red Sox or Yankees.
Sunday, March 14, 2010
The Brew Crew
In late August last season the Brewers and Nats wrapped up a series in DC with a late afternoon "get-away" game. Milwaukee was sending staff ace Yovani Gallardo to the mound, so, with my afternoon free, I went to the game. The Nationals took an early one-zip lead on a double by Willie Harris, a wild pitch, and a fielder's choice RBI groundout in the bottom of the 2nd inning. Gallardo was wild (4 walks and a wild pitch in 5 innings) but he struck out 8, including Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham twice each with men on base.
Nats pitching held the Brewers mighty offense under wraps for 5 glorious innings. In the fading late afternoon light, my hopes glowed that I would witness a visually pleasing 1-0 pitchers duel. But not so. in the top of the 6th, Frank Catalanotto led off with a double and, with a quick wave of his bat, Ryan Braun gave the Brew Crew a 2-1 lead with a rocket homerun into our section in the left field stands. Then the wheels came off for the home team. By the time Braun whiffed to end the inning almost 20 minutes later, the Brewers had sent 11 men to the plate, banged out 6 hits and plated 6 runs. A Jody Gerut solo home run in the 8th inning gave the visitors a 7-1 edge, their final margin of victory as three Milwaukee relievers tossed the game's final four innings without allowing a single Washingtonian past second base.
Why mention this game between two teams that missed last season's playoffs? Well, I'd argue that it illustrates nicely two things that defined 2009 for the Brewers: Bursts of ridiculously efficient offense and wild but effective mound-work from Yovani Gallardo. The Fielder-Braun-McGehee-led offense produced 4.9 runs per game last year, the 3rd best output in the National League. The team finished 80-82 because, other than Gallardo, the pitching staff left the Brewer faithful with a season-long bitter beer face, allowing 5.1 runs per contest, 15th in the 16 team National League. Only the hapless Nationals (see the above-mentioned 6th inning implosion for a nice case study) allowed more scoreboard damage. All offense and no pitching made Bernie Brewer a dull boy by October.
Cha-Cha-Cha-Changes
General Manager Doug Melvin promised the Brewer faithful that he would not stand idly by this offseason and start 2010 with the same sorry stock of pitchers. He pledged to toss two new established starting pitchers into the Brewers vat, and did so, inking Randy Wolf and Doug Davis to contracts. These veteran mid-rotation lefty arms should fill the 2nd and 3rd slots in the Milwaukee rotation.
The Brewers said farewell to Jason Kendall, who exerts such a Rasuptin-like influence over baseball front offices that despite having scarcely enough power in his bat to reach an outfield fence on 2 hops (he's hit a grand total of 11 long balls since 2005 as a full-time catcher), he has landed on his feet in Kansas City. Into the void behind home plate, the Brewers will throw offseason additions George Kottarras, picked up from the Red Sox, and Gregg Zaun, who split last season between caddying for Matt Weiters in Baltimore and filling in for Dioner Navarro in Tampa, and spent his spare time designing a line of colorful custom golf pants. Zaun looks like a catcher ought to look and at age 39 he still holds his own as a semi-regular backstop.
To bolster the back end of a bullpen which features the aging but still effective Trevor Hoffman, the Brewers added LaTroy Hawkins, who has regained his status as one of the game's better setup men following a couple of solid seasons throwing almost exclusively fastballs in Houston. To placate anyone still living in 1999, the Brewers signed long-time Cardinals and Angels stalwart Jim Edmonds to a minor league deal and extended the former perennial gold-glover an invitation to Spring Training to compete for the role of 4th outfielder. Should he make the club, Edmonds will likely back up Carlos Gomez, who Melvin acquired from the Twins this offseason in exchange for fallen shortstop JJ Hardy.
Pitching
The addition of Wolf and Davis gives the Brewers two competent inning eaters to pitch behind the smoke-tossing Gallardo in the starting rotation. However, to round out the final two spots in the rotation, the Brewers will look to some combination of hurlers whose 2009 efforts were so putrid that the stench is still hanging suspended in space somewhere over Lake Michigan. Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, and Manny Parra (5-9 6.38 ERA, 7-12 5.29 ERA, and 11-11 6.36 respectively) may have reached "shape up or ship out" time this season, but some combination of the trio will break camp in April as major league starting pitchers.
Trevor Hoffman was said to be too old to prove a good signing but, silenced naysayers with 37 saves, a sub-2.00 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP in 2009. The Brewers will count on the 42 year old to repeat that performance as their 2010 closer. Hawkins will join Todd Coffey, who consistently hits 95 mph on most radar guns, as primary setup guys. Mitch Stetter (3.60 ERA) has the inside track on the lead situational-lefty job in the 'pen. Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva, and the returning-from-injury David Riske should vie for relief innings as the season rolls on.
Hitting
Memo to Brewers fans: Enjoy the Ryan Braun-Prince Fielder power duo while you can. While Braun is locked up through 2015, Fielder is approaching his walk year. They combined for 78 homeruns and 255 RBI last year, Fielder himself drove in 141 runners, 95 of whom were not named Prince Fielder. They are special talents.
Casey McGehee will try to reprise his 16 HR .301 BA effort from a season ago while batting behind Braun and Fielder and holding down 3rd base. Rickie Weeks and Alcides Escobar, whom Baseball Prospectus describes as Orlando Cabrera with more speed and a higher batting average, will form the double play combo in Milwaukee this summer. Craig Counsell and top prospect Mat Gamel (can someone get that boy an extra "t" so he can spell his name properly?) will likely push Weeks and McGehee for playing time in the infield.
Carlos Gomez, acquired from Minnesota, is slated to patrol centerfield. He has plenty of speed, plays better-than-average defense, but hit a paltry .229 last year and posted an abysmal .287 on-base percentage. Though Gomez can fly on the bases and in the field, his offensive numbers simply will not fly as a major league leadoff man. Braun will patrol leftfield and terrorize pitchers and Corey Hart, fresh off of a disappointing 2009, will man rightfield. Edmonds and Jody Gerut figure to be the primary outfield reserves.
2010 Possibilities
The Brewers come to Washington over the second weekend of the season in April. By the time they arrive in our Nation's Capital and I have the chance to see them in person, the team will almost certainly still be in the process of finding out the answer to the multi-million dollar question of the season: The pitchers can't be THAT BAD again, can they?!?! Any lineup with Braun and Fielder and average talent around them will score enough runs to stay competitive, but, the moundsmen must get enough hitters out to allow their offense to "do that voodoo that you do soooo well." If the pitchers keep the team afloat, a winning season is possible in Milwaukee. If not, the Brew Crew may keep the hapless Pirates, confused Astros, and ever rebuilding Reds company in the bottom half of the NL Central.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)