Its Such a Nice Park

At what point does the term "rebuilding" stop applying to a team? How long does a fallen mini-dynasty have to pull itself back up before we label the team moribund, inept, and not worth our time?

The scene was dramatic. 2 outs. Bottom of the 9th inning. 7th game of the National League Championship Series. The visiting Pirates lead the hometown Braves by a single run. The bases are loaded. Up to the plate strides the last hitter available on the Atlanta bench, Francisco Cabrera, to pinch hit for the pitcher's spot in the order. The Pirates are one solitary out away from a trip to the World Series...

... Cabrera rips the Stan Belinda offering into the hole between shortstop and third. David justice trots home from third uncontested to tie the score. Aging Sid Bream, running on two bad knees, rounds third and dashes for home like some sort of wounded chariot from Ben Hur. Pittsburgh leftfielder, and NL MVP, Barry Bonds unleashes a line drive throw towards home plate. The ball arrives. Bream slides. Portly backstop Mike LaValliere catches the throw and flails towards Bream. Powdery earth and white chalk scatter and flutter into the night air. Bream is safe. Atlanta goes to the World Series.

The Pirates walked off of the field that October night at Fulton County Stadium, descended into their clubhouse, and, with the departure via free agency of Bonds and Drabek, the Pirates have not been heard from since.

Or rephrased. The Pirates have not played a meaningful baseball game in 16 seasons.

Sure, Pittsburgh hosted the 1994 All-Star Game, and that was a fantastic baseball game. Sure, the bright new PNC Park was the scene of the All-Star game again in 2006.

And thats about it.

The shame of it all is that, for this writer's money, the Pirates play in baseball's best ballpark.



I took that picture on an overcast July day in 2005 when 4 friends and I wrapped up a 3-day ballpark road trip by watching a Pirates-Rockies contest at PNC Park. The day prior to arriving in Pittsburgh I enjoyed a sunny afternoon game at Jacobs Field in Cleveland. Two days before PNC I had been very impressed by Comerica Park, home of the Detroit Tigers. But PNC was special. With the river beyond right field, the city skyline visible beyond the outfield, and a yellow suspension bridge (conveniently an official color of Pittsburgh's 3 major sports teams) a few thousand feet away in very very very deep centerfield, PNC Park is an unbelievable venue for a baseball game.

And the Pirates have failed to play a game of any significance since well before it opened its doors in 2001.

The odds aren't in their favor of changing that this season.


Pitching

Paul Maholm, whose greatest claim to fame may end of being that he struck out Billy Crystal in Spring Training in 2008, is the Pirates' best pitcher. He brought his ERA under 4.00 last year and logged more than 200 innings. The 6'2 lefty is not a staff ace, but he's a good big league starter and can be counted on to pitch intelligently, if not dominantly, this season.

He is joined in the rotation by Ian Snell, who possesses a 95 MPH fastball but only 1 winning season at the big league level, and Zach Duke, who has yet to come within sight of repeating his promising 2005 campaign. The 4th and 5th slots will be filled by Russ Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens. Both came over from the Yankees in last season's Xavier Nady trade. As of this writing, neither starter has been able to recreate in the big leagues the success they enjoyed while climbing through the minors.

Even with a two-month DL hiatus built into the middle of his 2008 season, closer Matt Capps still posted a sub-1.00 WHIP and tallied 21 saves. He could be the closer on just about any team. That is a claim that we can't honestly make about most of the other key member of the Pirates team. The relief corps features Hawaii-born Tyler Yates (he walked more than 1 hitter per every 2 innings pitched. Thats alot), lefty John Grabow (2.84 ERA in 2008) and youngsters Sean Burnett and Jesse Chavez, the later consistently struck out more than a hitter per inning in the minors. So he's got that going for him. Which is nice.


The Guys in Charge of Scoring Runs

The corner infielders for the 2009 Pirates could easily fit the classic line from Bang the Drum Slowly, they are "a million dollars worth of promise worth two cents upon delivery." Adam LaRoche and brother Andy each have shown teases of well-above-average talent but have yet to produce much for the Pirates. Adam's penchant for starting the season in miserable slumps, and Andy's horrific .152 BA effort in the second half of last season are not what the Pirates management has in mind.

The middle of the diamond is superb. Second sacker Freddy Sanchez took home the 2006 NL batting title and has hit over .300 in two of the last three seasons. Shortstop Jack Wilson is a good glove man who is beloved by Pittsburgh fans and not entirely inept with a bat in his hands. Centerfielder Nate McLouth is a bona fide star. He hit 26 homers, stole 23 bases and drove in 94 runs on a pitiful 2008 team. His upside is huge. Catcher Ryan Doumit hit .318 last year with 15 homeruns. His .858 OPS is just about a dream come true for a catcher who possesses decent defensive skills, which Doumit does.

Right and left field will feature a combination of Eric Hinske (signed away from the Rays), Brandon Moss (who came over in last season's Jason Bay trade), Craig Monroe, and the speedy Nyjer Morgan (53 stolen bases last year between AAA and the Big Leagues).

Prediction:

Worst Pirates team since Francisco Cabrera ripped out the teams heart and ate it? Certainly not. A team worthy of striking fear into the hearts of the Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, and Astros? Hardly.

77-85 5th Place NL Central

George Brett Doesn't Live Here Anymore

There was an article not too long ago in the New York Times which commented on the present state of the Kansas City Royals. The franchise which captured a World Series title in 1985 has spent more than a decade reduced to an AL West, and now an AL Central, footnote. Their most recent World Series is, we must point out, less distant than for some clubs (ie. My Orioles), but, the recent past has not been kind to Kansas City baseball.

The 2009 incarnation of the Royals is far from the most hopeless group of the past two decades. In fact, theres some cause for optimism that the recently refurbished Kauffman Stadium may once again play host to someting that vaguely resembles good baseball. To paraphrase Casey Stengal when he took over the Yankees, There is less wrong with the Royals this year than with many of their AL counterparts.

The Royals front office has fought, and fought smartly, towards pushing the club upwards in the standings. The 2007 signing of pitcher Gil Meche was initially treated by many commentators as a pathetic example of a losing team overpaying for a mediocre starting pitcher. Meche has turned out to be a quality starter. Not a Cy Young candidate, but a staff anchor nevertheless. Many teams have paid way more and gotten infinitely less productivity in return (see the experiences of the Dodgers with Jason Schmidt and the Carl Pavano ordeal in New York for particularly egregious examples)

Pre 2008-signee Jose Guillen, for his myriad of character flaws, is a power bat in the lineup. Mike Jacobs is potentially, a better-than-average bat at first base. Coco Crisp simply needed to get out of Boston. He has a world of talent and gives the Royals some name recognition appeal as well.

Additionally, the Royals have made great strides in forking out large wads of cash to young arms and power bats taken in the MLB amateur draft. A big signing bonus up front will look like a bargain if the royals end up with a staff ace or two or three on their hands in a couple of years. If not, then, well, at least they didn't waste all of that bonus money on Jason Schmidt.


Pitching

After Gil Meche, the starting rotation becomes alot less certain. Zack Grienke seems to have his social anxiety disorder and depression under control at last. He won 13 games in 2008 with a 3.47 ERA. Despite having been in the bigs for several years, he is still only 25 and, if he c an keep it together emotionally, he will provide the Roayls with a reliable 2nd starter. No. 3 starter Kyle Davies also posted a winning record in 2008 and, for the first time in his career, he kept his ERA below 5.00. His 4.06 mark from last year would be nice to see again in 2009.

Then things get a little dicier. Sidney Ponson is in Royals camp this spring. Keep the Aruban judges as far away as is humanly possible. It must be remembered however that it was not so very long ago that Ponson was a serviceable front end of the rotation kind of pitcher. Horacio Ramirez, Brian Bannister, and 2006 top draft choice Luke Hochevar are also in the mix for rotation slots.

The bullpen has Joakim Soria. He is one of the top 7 or 8 closers in baseball. his miniscule 0.86 WHIP in 2008 means that he isn't one of those Joe Borowski-type heart attack inducers in late innings. Soria is a real deal lockdown game-ender. In a move that seems out of place with their other savvy signings, the Royals inked Kyle Fransworth to serve as the setup man and surrender homeruns. He joins with Joel Peralta (who gave up 15 homeruns in barely over 50 innings last year) to provide manager Trey Hillman with plenty to fret about in middle innings. Juan Cruz's arrival from Arizona means that, when Farnsworth and Peralta truly implode, Hillman has a much more polished set-up option. Veteran lefty Ron Mahay figures to see plenty of work as well.


The Lumber

The infield corners should hit and hit well in 2009. Third baseman Alex Gordon's offensive numbers inched upward in 2008, his second season in the big leagues. Mike Jacobs arrives from Florida with 32 homers from a season ago to his credit.

The double play combination or Alberto Callaspo and Mike Aviles each hit over .300 last season. The only problem with that pair is that in a June traffic stop, Callaspo's Blood Alcohol Content was approaching the level of his batting average. Drunk Driving is a traditional bad behavior among professional athletes (see Phelps, Michael and Barkley, Charles) but its cause for concern that Callaspo may not have the makeup to be a long term star.

Miguel Olivo wrested the catching job away from a slumping John Buck in 2008. He put up double digit homers but his miserable On-Base Percentage of .278 is such that Roylas fans may secretly hope that John Buck regains his form and steals the No. 1 job back by season's end.

Jose Guillen drove in 97 runs last season and did alot to alienate the KC fanbase as well as his Royals teammates. He's just not a nice guy. If he's batting in the middle of the order on a winning team, however, the soft-spoken angel on Guillen's right shoulder may become a bit more visible. If the 2005 version of Coco Crisp shows up in KC this season, then centerfield will be a non-issue. If something less shows up, then, well, we'll know why Theo Epstein was willing to let him go. Mark Teahan and David DeJesus will also see time in the outfield.

Designated Hitter Billy Butler led the American League in grounding into double plays in 2008. The eye-catching power numbers he put up in AAA have yet to fully show up against major league pitching, but the talent is certainly there.

Overall:

The pitching staff has more than a couple good arms. The offense has more than a couple of good bats. They certainly wouldn't be totally coming out of nowhere if the Royals made a run at the AL Central this season. Everyone else has enough question marks that even a slightly better than .500 performance in KC could at least keep the season interesting until September.

Prediction 81-81 Third Place AL Central.

Fresh Fish

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

Or for the Florida Marlins: Accumulate talent. Gut the Team. Repeat.

After their surprise World Series triumph in 1997, the Florida Marlins offended the sensibilities of most baseball purists (and offended most of their fans) by quickly dismantling their championship ball club. A few years of losing ensued.

After their 2003 upset of the favored Yankees in the World Series, the Marlins once again did heavy surgery on their squad and started over.

After posting a surprise winning record in 2008, the Marlins unloaded a great deal of their proven big-league talent. Mike Jacobs was shipped to Kansas City. Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen got moved to Washington. Kevin Gregg is now a Cub.

However, unlike the aftermath of previous player sell-offs, the reality facing the Marlins in 2009 is that they are still a team laden with talent in a National League which has proven to be very wide open. Despite their being in the most talent crowded division in their Legaue, the Marlins are in as good of a position to post a winning record as any Marlin squad in recent memory. Last year’s 84-77 mark is definitely within reach.


On the Field

Dan Uggla ain’t much with a glove on his left hand. The All-Star game debacle at second base should have driven that point home to most of America. But Uggla sure can hit the baseball. His 32 homers last season were a new career high. His double play partner, Hanley Ramirez, may be the next great MLB superstar. He joined the 30-30 club last season and if a tender left shoulder stays intact this season, a 40-40 season may not be entirely out of the question.

The infield corner slots are likely to go to Jorge Cantu, who resurrected his once prmiosing career last season. His 29 homer and 95 RBI performance will be enough to guarantee Cantu playing time at either 1st or 3rd this season. Gaby Sanchez, a 1st baseman with some pop and Emilio Bonifacio, acquired from the Nationals in the Willingham/Olsen deal, will vie for playing time in the infield as well.

The outfield will feature Cody Ross, Jeremy “I hit a Grand Slam in my first MLB at-bat” Hermida, and the extremely promising Cameron Maybin. Small sample sizes often lead to disappointment, but, Maybin gave a tantalizing preview of his abilities during a September call-up last season. He hit a cool .500 in his brief appearance in the majors. He’s fast. He hits for occasional power. And his outfield defense has very great potential.

John Baker will start the season at the Marlins’s everyday catcher. He has proven the ability to hit for a good average during his minor league career and hit an acceptable .299 in 233 plate appearances last season for the Fish. He won’t put up monster pwer numbers but he will provide above average batsmanship for a catcher.

Wes Helms and Alfredo Amezaga return as pinch hitters and all-around reserves.


On the Mound

Health permitting, 2009 will be the first full season in which Marlin fans get to see a 1-2 combo of Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco. Each has a staff ace level arsenal of pitches and each has had to deal with the injury bug since promising debuts in 2006. Nolasco posted a 1.10 WHIP in 2008 while throwing 212 innings. If he holds up for a second straight year, look for him at the All-Star game in July.

Youngster Chris Volstad will pitch behind Johnson and Nolasco. His 2.88 ERA in half a season in the bigs last year is way beyond promising. Anibal “No-Hitter” Sanchez has won the 4th spot in the rotation. This could be the year he finally delivers on the expectations created (for better or worse) from his 10 win effort as a 22 year old in 2006. Andrew Miller had a difficult first season in south Florida. He’s still only 24, 2009 may be his long-awaited coming out party.

Matt Lindstrom will take over for the departed Kevin Gregg as the Marlins’ late-inning stopper. His ERAs in the low 3.00s over the past two seasons are not cause for panic, but, he has yet to show the ability to be truly “lights out.” Ageless lefty Arthur Rhodes has departed for Cincinnati, leaving lefty set-up duty to Taylor Tankersley and Reynel Pinto. Youngster Logan Kensing. After 1 ½ stellar seasons in KC’s bullpen, Leo Nunez arrives in Miami in 2009 as Lindstrom’s primary setup man. His ERA was under 3.00 last year.

Say what you will about the way the Marlins do business. But when they start trading away talent, they tend to get loads (Nunez, Maybin, Ramirez)back in return.

Predictions:

If the top of the rotation stays healthy and the offense is able to come close to repeating its 5th in the NL runs per game effort of a season ago, the Marlins could be a nightmare for the rest of the NL East. They could easily be this year’s Tampa Bay Rays.

87-75 2nd Place NL East.

De-Clawed

Baseball Prospectus predicts a 78-84 record for Jim Leyland's Detroit Tigers in 2009. Thats pretty weak for a team which won the AL in 2006. Thats pretty weak for a team with this much star power. But after last seasons 74-88 debacle, 78 wins would represent a step forward.

Flamethrowing bullpen arms incinerated and once top pitching prospects spent most of last season on the DL. Starting pitching was equally erratic and fragile. The offense, the "stuff of 1000 runs" according to pre-season bold claims of a year ago, finished a modest 4th in the American League. Far from the record-setting top billing that many prophesied for a lineup loaded with recognizable names.

And they released Gary Sheffield yesterday. Part of the terms of their government bailout perhaps? Did some of the Tiger brass manage to sneak onto one of those Auto Industry CEO's planes to Washington to cash in on the government's generosity?

The kind of season the Tigers had last year lends itself to joking. They flopped.

But, lets not write off the 2009 Tigers as more of the same just yet. Theres alot of talent here.

For Instance...

...After some early season woes at the plate and despite season-long ineptitude with the leather, Miguel Cabrera was very nearly as good as advertised in his first season in the Motor City. He tied for the AL lead in total bases, led the junior circuit in homeruns, and knocked in a more-than-acceptable 127 runs. At first base, his aversion to glove work will hopefully be less egregious and cost the Tigers starters fewer runs.

...Curtis Granderson's strikeout totals have plummeted in the past two seasons. His walk total jumped up significantly last year and his OBP was a full 30 points higher than in 2006. He has hit 36 triples in the past two seasons. Thats alot. He has hit more than 20 homers in each of the past two seasons. That ain't too shabby. He provides well-above-average defense in Centerfield. The Ghost of Ty Cobb and the Saints be praised!

... Magglio Ordonez didn't manage to repeat his breakout .363 batting average of 2007 but did eclipse the .300 mark yet again in 2008. His power numbers were down slightly but he once again topped 100 RBI. At age 35 he may be slowing down a bit but he is far from career-ending decline.

... Placido Polanco hit over .300 again while playing a solid second base. He hits line drives. He scores runs. He doesn't strike out much. He's in the upper tier of AL 2nd baseman.

... Marcus Thmaes hit 25 homeruns last year in 342 plate appearances. As the regular DH in 2009 after the release of Mr. Sheffield, Thames could see closer to 600 PAs. Mark him down for almost 40 dingers if he even approaches his 2008 long-ball pace.

... Gerlad Laird has arrived from Texas to work behind home plate. If the 2006 or 2008 version of Laird appears this season, the Tigers will get a decent batting average from their backstop. His average to slightly-better-than-average skills behind the plate won't lose games for Leyland's club.

There are a Few Issues to worry about Offensively...

... Brandon Inge is penciled in to start at 3rd base. He posted an anemic .205 BA in 2008 with a Rafael Belliard-esque .672 OPS (on-Base percentage plus Slugging Percentage). Thats the type of pop you expect from a late inning defensive replacement that on occasion might suffer the indignity of being pinch hit for by a pitcher. Inge will play every day.

...Carlos Guillen was an above average offensive shortstop. Now that he plays left field, he is a below average hitter for his position. Maybe staying injury free will help him put up better ratios than his 2008 effort. Optimism, right?

And then Theres the matter of the Pitching...

...Remember how you lusted after the young arms that the 2006 Tigers showcased all the way until the end of October? Remember how happy you felt when you dreamed that Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney, Jeremy Bonderman, and Justin Verlander would storm into your local stadium at night, slay your teams floundering pitching prospects, and declare their allegiance to your team? Did anyone else do that besides me?

... Zumaya and Bonderman will start the season on the Disabled List. They will be joined there by super-flop Dontrelle Willis. Partisanship aside, I think we're all rooting for all three of them to make full recoveries and return to the mound with the kind of jaw-dropping stuff which made us swoon 3 or 4 years ago.

... After two seasons in which he flirted with Cy Young contention, Justin Verlander lost 17 games in 2008. His ERA ballooned to almost 5.00. And his strikeouts dropped. Heres hoping that 2008 was a fluke and that Verlander of old returns in 2009. The rotation behind him is pretty thin.

...Edwin Jackson, fresh off his first decent season and a trip to the World Series with the Rays, arrives from Tampa to fill the No. 2 slot behind Verlander. He will be joined in the rotation by the Tigers best pitcher from 2008, Armando Galarraga (13 and 7 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.19 WHIP). Master of the mediocre Zach Miner and uber-prospect Rick Porcello are, as of this writing, penciled in as the 4th and 5th starters for Jim Leyland. Porcello led his A-Ball league in ERA last year and despite a spring training blister, Manager Leyland maintains that Porcello is a "legitimate candidate" to make the ball club as a starter. Failing that, Nate Robertson may be summoned from bullpen mop up duty to eat innings at the back end of the Tigers' rotation.

... The Tigers' closer, on paper at least, is recently acquired Brandon Lyon. He posted an un-closer-like 4.70 ERA last year in Arizona. OPPOSING HITTERS HIT .301 AGAINST HIM. Oh Joel Zumaya. Whence hast thy magnificent fled? The closer spot doth miss thee.

... Fernando Rodney's 4.91 ERA effort from a year ago does not make him a much better candidate than Lyon to save games in Motown. He will be a primary setup man along with Bobby Seay and former steroid suspendee Juan Rincon. If the season starts to go south, prospect Zach Simons put up excellent numbers in High-A ball last season. The urge to see if he can work his magic at higher levels may prove tempting if the Tigers find themselves mired at the bottom of the AL Central again.

Prediction:

What if the pitchers are somewhat healthy? What if the hitters improve their 2008 outputs slightly? What if Willis and Verlander regain their old forms?

Then this is possible: 86-76 Second Place AL Central.

In the names of the Padres...

Oh how quickly they fall.

One second the Padres are playing for a slot in the postseason, and are even 3 outs away from securing said berth. And the next, they’re wallowing in the cellar of the talent-depleted NL West, casting off veteran contracts, and looking depressingly far from being contenders.

2007 and 2008 could not have been more different in San Diego.

But what does 2009 have in store?

Among other salient changes, “Hell’s Bells” will not be playing over the Petco Park PA system this season. Longtime bullpen ace Trevor Hoffman has left for Milwaukee and will begin 2009 on the Brewers’ disabled list.

In an attempt at another sweeping change, the Padres’ Front Office tried in the offseason to ship Jake Peavy elsewhere. But, not finding a buyer willing to part with enough prospects (word is that the Padres were trying to pull off an Erik Bedard-like heist) management has contended themselves with at least starting the year with Jake Peavy as the staff ace. How long he stays a Padre will be a constant source of rumor all season.


The Pitchers

It would be tempting to totally write off this bunch as “Jake Peavy and the Buschers.” But that’s not a wholly accurate description of the Padres pitching staff. As a front end starter, Peavy is a member of the elite group of genuine staff aces alive today. He usually eats innings, misses bats, and generally has electric stuff. With any offensive support (he got 3.7 runs per start last year, which is awful) Peavy should always be in the conversation for a Cy Young Award.

Behind Peavy is Chris Young. Young took an Albert Pujols line drive off of his face last summer, which severly lmited his 2008 innings. He is a solid starter but has yet to throw 200 innings in a big league season. As a middle of the rotation guy, Young is well above average. If the Padres think he is a top-of-staff talent, his track record would show that they are sorely mistaken. Korean import Cha Seung Baek (6-9 record with a 4.62 after coming to San Diego from Seattle in the middle of last season), Kevin Correia (3-8 last season with the Giants), and some combination of Walter Silva (on loan from a team in Mexico), and Nationals cast-off Shawn Hill should contend for the remaining slots in the Padres rotation. Baek will begin the season on the DL with a forearm strain.

Heath Bell earns the distinction of being the full-time closer who replaced Mr. Hoffman in San Diego. His ERA jumped a full 1 ½ points last season after a 2007 campaign that seems to have been a statistical aberration. He has 2 career major league saves to his credit but will be expected to rack up dozens more this season. Cla Meredith (will someone please have the decency to lend that poor boy a “Y” to tack onto the end of his first name) hopes to halt the trend of a rapidly rising ERA as he returns as San Diego’s primary setup man. Ed Mujica, recently acquired from Cleveland will handle middle inning duties with a combination of Duaner Sanchez (formerly of the Mets), left-hander Arturo Lopez, and rookie Edwin Moreno.

Will They Score Any Runs?

Well. Maybe.

Adrian Gonzalez returns as the anchor of the defense at 1st base and the power bat in the middle of the Padres lineup. He slugged 36 homers last season and his slugging percentage continued a slow but steady climb all the way up to .510. He is a star. Perhaps not in the MVP-strata yet. But Gonzalez is a bona fide star.

Other than Gonzalez, the offense features little about which to get exicted. Jody Gerut and Brian Giles will patrol center and right fields respectively. The former put up modest numbers in an injury shortened 2008 campaign. The latter just turned 38 and is coming off of a season in which his power numbers remained low but his batting average jumped 35 points to .306. He may have another good season in him.

2006 World Series MVP David Eckstein will handle second base for the Padres.



Seems like a long time ago.

Kevin Kouzmanoff saw both his positive offensive stats (HR, RBI, Runs) rise in his second season as a full-time 3rd baseman as well as his negative stats (Strikeouts). His walks decreased as did his battign average and OBP. His third season will be very telling as to his future career trajectory.

Scott Hairston and Cliff Floyd will both see at-bats in corner outfield spots. Hairston slugged 17 homeruns last season but only drove in 31 in the process. That’s unbelievably low.

Nick Hundley brings what Baseball Prospectus described as a “backup’s skill set” to his first season as a full-time catcher in the majors.

The Padres have embraced the youth movement. Or at least the inexperienced movement. Their bench will be a mix of low-experience players, a Rule V draftee, and Henry Blanco (whose spectacular mediocrity at the plate makes him the stereotypical backup catcher from hell. His .292 average last season was a full 130 points higher than his putrid 2007 effort)

Prediction:

Theres not a whole lot to get excited about here. Peavy is likely to be elsewhere by July 31. Giles and Cliff Floyd may make similar mid-season departures. There aren’t really even any top-tier prospects about whom to gush at the start of this season.

65-97. Last Place. NL West.

Until Next Time, Stay Classy, San Diego.

Ozzie Ozzie Ozzie

With a mix of aging star power, emerging talent, and timely contributions from big league filler, the White Sox earned a Division Title in 2008. It wasn’t always pretty. And winning the AL Central took 163 games, thanks, at least in part, to a late September schnide which nearly gifted the division to the rival Minnesota Twins.

Thus two things are certain this year on Chicago’s South Side:
1) There will be a new division title flag waiving (or tossing about) in the breeze
2) Ozzie Guillen will be back for at least a few more games as White Sox manager.

Beyond that, not much is certain. The 2009 White Sox may be a an injury or two, or a statistical regression or two away from a repeat of their putrid 72-win campaign of 2007. And Ozzie Guillen may be a tirade or a post-game meltdown away from prematurely terminating his tenure as manager (or from having it terminated on his behalf).

Anything, as Kevin Garnett likes to remind us, is possible.

The Manager

Why talk about the skipper? Ozzie Guillen wasn’t the one who slugged 36 homeruns, or won 17 games, or finished 2nd in Rookie of the Year balloting. Why bring Ozzie into this?



More so than any other manager, Ozzie Guillen has cursed, ranted, and raved his way into becoming the face of the White Sox franchise. Frank Thomas has long since left the south side, taking his recognizable image with him. Ken Griffey Junior was only a late-season rental for 2008, he has returned home to Seattle. Konerko, Dye and Thome are all good players but none has taken the leap to recognizable, marketable mega-star status.

The beloved skipper, on the other hand, lands on Sportscenter and makes headlines pretty much every week. Maybe it’s the language barrier. Maybe its that Ozzie had the misfortune of learning English in baseball clubhouses and therefore was given a somewhat skewed introduction to our national language. Maybe he just talks the same way in front of a microphone that he does in the dugout and deserves our praise for being so genuine.

Either way, Guillen’s colorful vocabulary and penchant for stirring up media controversies (Paging Mr. Mariotti) are, for better or for worse, a part of the White Sox and may impact the success or failure of the 2009 team.

The Hitters

The lineup isn’t quite a geriatric ward with a handful of youthful visitors. But its inching that way.

Jermaine Dye is back in right field after a stellar 2008 (34 HR .292 BA). This is the final guaranteed year of his contract. Now 35 years old, Dye knows that another productive and most important, another healthy season will earn him a great deal of money as he marches towards retirement. Any hope of a lucrative long-term contract to close out his 30s will depend on repeating last year’s performance. He is joined in the outfield by 2008 sensation Carlos Quentin and a 2-headed monster of mediocrity in centerfield, Brian Anderson and DeWayne Wise. Quentin put up eye-popping numbers in 2008 only to have his MVP-caliber season cut short by a fractured wrist suffered during a post-strikeout temper tantrum. Anderson and Wise will share time in centerfield until one of them completely flops, or until one establishes himself as a bona fide major league everyday-er.

The infield features a return to his natural position for last year’s Rookie of the Year runner-up Alexi Ramirez. Now the starting shortstop, Ramirez batted close to .300, showed power, and demonstrated an ability to steal a few bases. Theres no reason to doubt his ability to put up similar, or even better numbers, in 2009. Jumping to the now vacant slot at second base will likely be top prospect Chris Getz. He has seen his batting average rise each of the past two years as he repeated a year at AA and then jumped to AAA last season. He’s never had a big-league at bat. But, stands to win the job out of spring training this year. Third base will either go to slugging youngster (can you call someone who is 26 young?) Josh Fields or to Wilson Betemit who came over from Gotham City in the Nick Swisher trade. Fields has the huge upside of having mashed 23 homers in emergency major league duty in 2007 and a stellar track record of similar power at all levels of his minor league journey. Betemit is an above-average utility man.

No longer a viable defensive option, Jim Thome will be the DH yet again. He will turn 39 this year. Can he stay healthy? Paul Konerko is, injuries permitting, the 1st baseman. White Sox fans hope and pray that his DL stint last season was not a sign of frailty to come. Similarly, AJ Pierzynski has made a career out of being able to play almost everyday behind the plate. He’s now 32, however, and, it must be pointed out that he’s entering into those years in which catchers who have squatted behind the dish for a few too many innings over their careers start to show signs of rapid decline.

The Hurlers

Gavin Floyd exited the boulevard of broken dreams last season and finally lived up to the high billing which earned him a spot in the top 5 of the 2001 amateur draft. Most statheads prophesy doom for Floyd in 2009, calling last year an aberration. Sox fans, and anyone who was struck in the head by one of his errant pitches during their only Varsity high school at-bat, hope Gavin can repeat his 2008 success. Lefties John Danks and Mark Buehrle will be the top two arms in the Sox rotation. Buehrle has thrown 200 innings in 8 straight seasons. That’s refreshing to see in an era of frail pitchers. Danks is only 24 and proved last season that he has the stuff to retire big league hitters consistently. His 3.32 ERA in 2008 would be nice to see again this season on the south side.

The aging Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon are, as of March 22, the frontrunners to fill the final two slots in the rotation. Remember when they were front of the rotation studs? Bullpen longmen Clayton Richard, DJ Carassco, and Jeff Marquez are also rotation options should the portly Colon and brittle Contreras collapse.

The bank end of the bullpen features dependable Bobby Jenks. Over the past two seasons, Jenks has run up a stat line which any sane manager would covet: 5 homers allowed and just 30 walks in almost 130 innings. That’s reliability at the end of the game. Sox fans hope to see a lot of Jenks in 2009. The oft-injured Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink, and World Baseball Classic alumnus Matt Thornton will be the middle innings links between the starting staff and Jenks.

Overall

At the start of last season, the White Sox were not anyone’s sexy pick to win the AL Central. They return, essentially, the same roster. Everyone is a year older and wiser. If the hitters avoid late-career swoons, the pitchers maintain their 2008 levels of efficiency, and Guillen doesn’t try to light a fire under the team by literally setting them all on fire, the Sox should be able to run with anyone in the AL Central in 2009.

Prediction: 88-74 First Place AL Central.

Its Been Awhile

So, Its been about 2 weeks since anything new went up on this blog. Call it a combination of ample distractions in Hawaii combining with the NCAA Tournament combining with a term paper. Basically, a perfect storm of things that made blog writing a little less desirable.

The goal for this week is to pump as many previews out as I can before the season gets under way on Sunday. So check for updates early and often, 2 or 3 a day will be going up.

Right before I went into Hawaiian hibernation, Dmitriy Zakharov was kind enough to admit his Cincinnati Reds fandom in lyrical paragraph form. Its a good read.

Not many baseball movies centered around the Reds, but, a youtube search revealed this gem from the 1950s.

None of the guys in suits featured will be walking through the clubhouse doors this year.



Enjoy.

In the eight seasons since the Cincinnati Reds last finished with a winning record, they have never finished last in their division. This fact, a product of the Reds sharing the NL Central with the even-more-star-crossed Pirates, is as good of an explanation as any for why a whole-scale house cleaning and rebuilding has not been attempted after any of the failed campaigns of the 2000s. That is, until now. For even though the Reds cannot be said to have hit rock bottom, the disappointment of the last few years has slowly but steadily amped up the pressure for massive organizational restructuring. As with the country as a whole, change came to Cincinnati in a big way during the past late fall and winter. Whether this change is to be accompanied by hope remains to be seen.

To be honest, in many ways I am a lapsed Reds fan, somewhat akin to the lapsed Catholics that inhabit Georgetown in considerable quantities. Sure, I go through the motions and pay my respects once in awhile, a handful of games on WGN or MASN taking the place of attendance at the occasional mass. However, what are supposed to be the central experiences of fandom instead take a backseat to other, seemingly tangential parts of the Cinci supporter identity. Where other team’s fans spent their time scouring lists of minor league prospects and performing salary cap computations that make Tim Geithner’s taxes look elementary, I simply laughed. Laughed, that is, at the demise of Jim Bowden, the former wunderkind GM of the Reds and a man who many followers of the Redlegs believe to be responsible for the plateauing and eventual decline of the franchise that took home the 1990 Commissioner’s Trophy. Call it Cincinnati Schadenfreude, a glum baseball fan’s inversion of Catholic guilt.

Perhaps it was a mistake to sleep through this offseason, though, for the usual Riverfront Rip van Winkle routine has been replaced with a march to the fountain of youth. In his first winter as Reds GM, Walt Jocketty has filled the team with fresh faces – in both senses of the word. Gone are Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, Jr., the faces of the franchise for the past few seasons, along with fan favorite Ryan Freel. Instead, six of the projected starters for this season are 27 or younger, and three of the five spots in the presumptive rotation are manned by hurlers 26 and under. Bronson Arroyo, who brought his rock-star-cum-pitcher act to Cincinnati less than three years ago, has been with the franchise for longer than all but three of his teammates. Speed, borne of young legs, and effort, fueled by a desire to cement a place on the roster and in the big leagues, are not expected to be in short supply this season.

But what about wins? This is where things get dicier. To quote a recent MLB.com account, “On the first day of camp, manager Dusty Baker threw down the gauntlet. Baker said he wanted to have the best fundamental team in the game with the fewest mental or physical mistakes.” Youth is good for plenty of things, but minimizing mistakes is not one of them. And while Wayne Krivsky, Jocketty’s predecessor, did a commendable job in restocking the Reds farm system, experience and polish remain indispensable ingredients that have yet to be added to the cupboard.

So what does all of this mean? For one, there is a renewed sense of optimism about the long-run future of the franchise. That in itself is a significant accomplishment by Jocketty, and it should help reanimate an increasingly resigned fanbase. In the short term, however, there is a general understanding that the flame-outs of seasons past could very well repeat themselves. Sure, there’s hope that Edinson Volquez might repeat and even improve upon his 17-win outing of a year ago; that sky-is-the-limit righty Homer Bailey realizes his potential and becomes the superstar he’s supposed to be; that Willy Taveras gives the Reds a long-absent threat on the basepaths while Jay Bruce comes into his own and Aaron Harang returns to his prior form. There’s hope, but there’s also realism. And the reality is that, after 8 consecutive seasons under .500, Reds fans are willing to endure another one or two, so long as they are seasons of rebuilding for the future, rather than a repeating of the past.

If you’re looking for predictions about how this season will go for the Redlegs, you would best be served by looking elsewhere – young teams are notoriously hard to predict, much less young teams with a coach like Dusty Baker at the helm. What I can say is this: for the first time in what feels like forever, it looks like the Reds will be playing with a purpose and with a destination in mind, rather than simply playing out the season with a “get your stats, get paid, don’t get hurt” mentality. And this fan, at least, plans on rejoining the flock of the faithful.