R.I.P. Mr. Kalas

My parents wouldn't shell out for cable when I was a child. I was 19 years old and just about to depart for two years of missionary service in the Philippines before cable/satellite television arrived in the Quinn house. It has been a fixture ever since.

Throughout my childhood I heard tales of the magical world of ESPN and Nickelodeon. I scheduled visits to my grandparents house in Baltimore to coincide with cable-televised sporting events. I made periodic Ralph Parker-esque hints at craving cable TV, but, little progress was made on that front.



Sometime in the summer after 6th grade, my parents shelled out for a truly legendary roof antenna to expand the range of TV stations we could pull in. This was the queen mother of antennas. No station in the Baltimore, Western Maryland, DC, or southern PA viewing region was beyond our reach. Much to my mothers chagrin I could watch the Simpsons for two solid hours every weeknight thanks to its staggered airings on the various FOX stations we hauled in. Sundays brought 3 different markets worth of football games. If the game on the Baltimore stations was a blowout, no worries, there were always the PA and DC options. Not bad. Same deal for the FOX Saturday Baseball game of the week.

In addition to the perks mentioned above, our magnificent antenna empowered me to watch occasional Phillies broadcasts on Channel 15, a UPN station which broadcast from somewhere in the area of York/Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. It was then that I was introduced to the unforgettable voice of Phillies' play-by-play man Harry Kalas. His voice was unlike any i had ever heard. His style, his phrasing, and, most of all, his unique cadence, made those occasional games a great treat. I have a clear memory of rushing home from church one summer Sunday when I was about 13, bursting through the door and heading straight for our downstairs living room to check for a Phillies broadcast on Channel 15. The unmistakable voice describing the action, the quirks of National League games, and the players who prior to interleague play I had only seen on baseball cards turned a simple Phillies broadcast into a special occasion for my ESPN-deprived adolescent self. When inter-league play was introduced in 1997, I remember opting to watch an Orioles-Phillies contest on the Phillies network rather than on the Baltimore station because of my fascination with Harry Kalas' unique voice.



Sure. In the Baltimore of my boyhood I was blessed to enjoy the stylings of Jon Miller every night on the radio, the Hall-of-Fame voice of Chuck Thompson on Sundays, the memorable insights and hopeless pronunciation blunders of Brooks Robinson, and the competent narrations of Joe Angel and Fred Manfra. (No need to belabor the point about Manfra, he was an acquired taste. For his first two seasons a the mic, he used the term "bounding ball" to describe anything hit on the ground no matter how rapidly the ball was traveling). But, Harry Kalas left a distinct impression on my young mind. I must give him at least some of the credit for my sustained interest in watching baseball, even through the turbulent early teenage years.

He, and his unforgettable voice, will be missed.

Highly Paid Professionals

Lets assume for a second that the front offices of the Baltimore Orioles and of the Tampa By Rays are rational happiness-maximizing individuals. Lets assume that they are reasonably intelligent and are truly trying to lead their ball clubs to the greatest degree of success possible. in other words, lets assume they are competent and that they are not trying to bring their franchises down from the inside.

That's the first thing Baltimore and Tampa have in common. They are both being run by competent people.

The second thing they have in common is that they both play in the talent-laden and very wealthy American League East. We cannot stress enough just how much talent rests in this one division alone.

Third, both teams have a stud prospect who is ranked either Number 1 or Number 2 in most publications' roster of future superstars. For Tampa, its lefty David Price, who in a few late season innings showed enough talent to land a spot on the Rays' postseason roster. In a few postseason appearances, the kid showed both incredible testicular fortitude as well as an above average ability to get great hitters out in big situations. For Baltimore, all eyes are on catching prospect Matt Wieters. The writers of Baseball Prospectus began a steamy "bro-mance" with Wieters in this season's edition of their book. Wieters is expected to hit for average and power in a way rarely, if ever, seen before from a backstop.




Here's the fourth and, for our purposes, the most important similarity. Each team is keeping their prized possession in AAA for the foreseeable future. Baltimore is content to have Gregg Zaun hold down the fort behind the plate at Camden Yards for the time being. Tampa is plugging Jeff Niemann into the 5th starters slot for now.

In so doing, each team is forcing a real doozie of a conundrum upon Fantasy Baseball Owners across this great land. What to do about Price and Wieters. Because they are not on the Disabled List of their respective clubs, and why would they be, they're healthy and thriving in the minors, Price and Wieters are blank stat lines, placeholders for now, on any fantasy roster. I should know. David Price is proudly sitting on my fantasy bench in 2 of my 3 fantasy leagues. Wieters is chillin on rival benches in 2 leagues. But he is a free agent, ripe for the plucking in one of the leagues in which I already own the rights to Price.

So my dilemma: To give a roster spot to Wieters and hope he arrives in Charm City ready to rock sooner rather than later? Or to hope that I am the first to my computer on the day that Wieters gets the fabled phone call to join the parent club? Is the long term impact of having Price and Wieters, two promising by wholly unknown commodities, worth being out two roster spots for an indefinite period of time?

The people in said league probably will read this. Someone may put an end to my suffering by the time i wake up tomorrow by nabbing Wieters. If so, thanks for putting my mind at ease, AND A POX UPON YOUR HOUSE AND YOUR TEAM.

Keeping Wieters and Price in the minors may make long term sense for both franchises in terms of both baseball and finances. But its an unholy tease to us fantasy owners who believe that both players may be superstars in the not-so-distant future.

Bye Bye Birdies?

I am going to do something that I never in my weirdest nightmare dreamed I would do. I am going to use the musical "Bye Bye Birdie" as the foundation for a blog post. I am doing this of my own free will and choice, fully cognizant of the possible ramifications for myself. You may all commence teasing me when you see fit.

"-It won't last!
-Not at all!
-He's too thin!
-She's too tall!"

The Orioles are 6-2. Regardless of today's outcome against the Rangers, the Birds have won their first 3 series of the year. From a wins and losses perspective, the young season is exceeding expectations in a big way. The Orioles have a nice perch atop the talent-laden AL East.

Theres 1 serious problem: The Orioles cannot possibly continue to win games at this clip if salient trends from their first 8 games continue.

Baltimore has run up its 6-2 record despite surrendering 50 runs in those 8 games. Thats more than 6 runs allowed per contest. A run every inning and a half. That simply will not do. no offense, not the 1927 Yankees or the 1995 Indians and not the 2009 Orioles can be expected to pound out more than 6 runs a game to keep the team afloat. A tip of the cap to Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and nick Markakis for absolutely murdering the ball through the first week and a half of the season.

The modus operandi of the 09 Orioles has been to jump out to a sizable lead and then hold on for dear life as the games final outs are recorded. Each night, one or more members of the bullpen have felt it their duty to turn a blowout into a hotly contested struggle. Geroge Sherrill has been particularly good at raising Birdland's blood pressure through 8 games. But, Chris Ray, Danys Baez, Jamie Walker, Dennis Sarfate, and Jim Johnson have each had a "make things far more interesting than necessary" moments.

(That being said, credit where credit is due, Sarfate was fantastic in emergency long relief in last night's 7-5 win. Called upon to pitch in the top of the 2nd, Sarfate dazzled for 3 1/3 scoreless innings. Exactly what the doctor ordered for the team.)

The high-wire acts of the starters and relievers could have resulted in disaster several times this year if not for some find glove work by a number of oriole regulars. Nick Markakis saved Monday night's game with a great running catch in right-center. Brian Roberts has made some spectacular plays around second base. Gregg Zaun discovered last night that throwing out base stealers is cool. And already, the outfielders (and their cutoff men) have gunned down a handful of runners on the basepaths. Improved defense is a nice surprise in 2009 for the Birds but, defensive gems cannot be the only thing standing between the Orioles pitchers and Three Mile Island style meltdowns.

Until the pitching starts allowing fewer runs (try about 2 less per contest) the Orioles won't be able to stay in first place "for good!"


Random Observation of the Week:

After JP Howell whiffed Nick Swisher on a 3-2 offspeed pitch today, A Nelson Muntz (the bully from the Simpsons) "Ha Ha" played over the Tropicana Field PA system. Thats excellent work by the Rays' stadium staff.

Things that I think that I think

A week is in the books.

A few big names have already headed for the DL. A few no-names are looking like Aaron, Spahn, and DiMaggio. A few playoff teams have stumbled out of the gate. A couple of trade deadline firesalers are playing like contenders.

After the very small sample size of a half dozen games for each team, there are alot of rash judgements that one might make (The Orioles and Blue Jays are going to rule the AL East, CC Sabathia sucks, and Cristian Guzman is going to win the NL batting title, etc.) but there are also a few intelligent observations that I think are screaming to be made after 2 series are in the books...

... Evan Longoria's rookie season was not a fluke. The Tampa 3rd baseman had a scorching hot opening week. He single handedly kept the Rays in a couple of games in Baltimore over the weekend. He his hitting for power and hitting for average. Every week this season certainly won't be this statistically lucrative for Longoria, but, Longoria is showing with a hot start at the plate that his suffering through a sophomore slump is not inevitable.

... Braves rookie outfielder Jordan Schafer is batting a cool .348 with 2 homeruns through his first week of big league action. He arrived in a big way with a homerun on opening night on national television. He's the early frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year

... Long simmering frustration on the part of the LA Angels with their inability to beat the Red Sox in the post-season may have manifest itself in today's bench clearing between the two clubs. It was a rough week for the Angels off the field but their performance on the field has thus far been what one would expect from the best team in the AL West.

... If the Arizona Diamondbacks are to contend this year they will need strong seasons from their pitchers. Dan Haren's 0-2 start and Brandon Webb's early season trip to the DL with shoulder issues do not bode well for Arizona's fortunes this season. Webb, normally a 220-inning guy, has shoulder stiffness. Glass half full: Webb will be fine. Glass half empty: 2009 will be a wash for Webb.

... The Kansas City Royals have assembled a core group of young-ish starting pitchers that may be ready to allow the team to contend in 2009. Zach Greinke, predicted by the NY Times to win the AL Cy Young, looked good in his first mound stint, 6IP 7K 0R!

... That the Washington Nationals are headed for another losing, last place season is not an earth-shattering revelation. After 1 week of action however, the Nationals are pitching, fielding, and generally playing like they are itching to give the 2003 Tigers (43-119) a run for their money as the worst team in recent memory. The Nationals have already been bitten by the injury bug (Ronnie Belliard) and their maddening motley crew of moundsmen has been simply awful through 6 games. The unbalanced schedule will not be their friend this season, the NL East is loaded. Not promising for the Nationals.


156 more game for the Orioles. 160-2 is still very much an option.

A Cloud on an Otherwise Sunny Day

The time you won your town the race
We chaired you through the marketplace
Man and boy stood cheering by
And home we brought you, shoulder high

Today, the road all runners come
And shoulder high we bring you home
And set you at your threshold down
Townsmen of a stiller town

Smart lad to slip betimes away
From fields where glory does not stay
And early though the laurel grows
It withers quicker than the rose

Eyes the shady night has shut
Cannot see the record cut
And silence sounds no worse than cheers
After earth has stopped the ears

Now you will not swell the route
Of lads who wore their honors out
Runners whom renown outran
And the name died, before the man

So set before its echoes fade
The fleet foot on its sill of shade
And hold to the low lintel up
The still defended challenge cup

And round that early-laurelled head
Will flock to gaze the strengthless dead
And find unwithered on its curls
The garland briefer than a girl's

A.E. Housman, "To An Athlete Dying Young"


Surely someone, somewhere, has recited this poem in the past few days. The tragic death of Angels' rookie Nick Adenhart puts a damper on an otherwise joyous time of year. Spring is supposed to be the season of rebirth. The season of hope for nature and for baseball fans. 22 year old athletes are supposed to be invincible. Thats why we idolize them.

Nick Adenhart's death, his falling victim to an intoxicated driver, is a tragedy of epic proportions. Throughout the imagined community of Angels' fans, the community of their team and management, and the larger human family, there is a sense of loss whenever something so senseless happens.

It says something about our society that upon hearing the words "baseball player" and "fatal auto accident" a third term instantly came into my head "Drunk Driving." In this case, it was not the crash victims who had erred in judgment by getting behind the wheel of a car after consuming too much alcohol. Rather, they feel victim to someone else's irresponsibility. Nick Adenhart, consider yourself exempt from the paragraph which follows. May you rest in peace.

Athletes racking up DUI arrests is a long and lamentable tradition in professional sports. Charles Barkley recently did a 3 day stint in the slammer for a DUI. NFL Wide Receiver Donte Stallworth stands charged with killing a pedestrian whom he struck with his car while driving with an illegally high BAC. Yankee hurler Joba Chamberlin was arrested not too long ago for exceeding the legal limit for blood-alcohol. LA Clippers forward Zach Randolph was picked up and detained for DUI on April 6. Half of the Cincinnati Bengals have at least one DUI arrest. Lets keep going here, in baseball alone off the top of my head I can think of Rafael Furcal, Tony LaRussa, Dontrelle Willis, Hunter Pence, Sidney Ponson, Esteban Loiza, Jim Leyritz, Jim Hickey, Gustavo Chacin, Ryan Freel, Scott Spezio, the list goes on and on.

In April 2007, Cardinals pitcher Josh Hancock died in a car crash. Testing showed that Hancock's BAC was well over the legal limit. The Cardinals responded by taking alcohol out of their clubhouse. Nice gesture, but it doesn't get to the heart of the problem.

Major League Baseball has a golden opportunity here. Take a stand and take the lead in the fight against drunken driving. I'm not proposing harsher penalties for DUI arrests for players nor am I proposing any kind of draconian measures be taken against offenders at large. I am not proposing that alcohol be banned from big league parks or that MLB get out of bed with the major beer companies. But baseball can take proactive steps in advocacy for safer decision making. Get players out in the community to educate teens about the risks of drinking before getting behind the wheel. Have players do public service ads. Get those players and coaches with DUIs in their pasts to become the poster boys of safe, sane and sober behavior. Expand the Designated Driver program at parks. Do more to make taxi and public transport services available for ballpark patrons. Give M.A.D.D. free airtime every once in awhile during broadcasts. Partner with Alcoholics Anonymous to help encourage folks who have lost control to fight back. Fund rehab programs and education programs. Do anything and everything which screams to the world "MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL STANDS FOR RESPONSIBILITY!"

Dead players have an impact on us all, cause tears to flow across the country, and capture the media's attention. Lets see what a few living players could do if unleashed by MLB for the greater good.

The way to remember Nick Adenhart is to take positive steps towards eliminating the need to recite Mr. Housman's poem so tragically often.

This is Birdland

Its opening day. In a perfectly just and fair society, this would be a national holiday.

We begin the baseball season with a preview of the team that I will be paying closest attention to for the next few months, the Baltimore Orioles.

The Orioles have been in something of a rough stretch for the past, well, decade. But, the best part of Opening Day is hope can spring eternal. If we can't at least be naively optimistic on this day then we're in trouble.



Mark Murphy offered to share his thoughts on the Orioles in blog post format. As this season will mean plenty of commentary from me on the state of the Orioles, I am very excited to begin the season with commentary from someone else whose views on the team I respect. What follows is an excellent read.

Enjoy.



For the first time since the 1972 season, the Orioles’ road gray uniforms will feature “Baltimore” emblazoned across the chest, and all jerseys will have a patch displaying the Maryland state flag, similar to the patch found on Ravens’ jerseys. Unofficially considered somewhat of a standard on road uniforms, it was widely believed (though never confirmed) that the absence of the city name was an attempt to avoid alienating the fan base in nearby Washington, DC, as the Senators had vacated the Capital in 1971.

With the Nationals firmly established in Washington, the Orioles now hope to placate their original fan base in Baltimore. The refusal to place the city name on road uniforms was often a controversial subject among Orioles fans, convinced that the team’s ownership, most recently Peter Angelos, was out of touch and unable to connect with fans or develop a winning product. The O’s, who recently ranked dead last among major league franchises (and 114th out of 122 in the major sports) in fan satisfaction according to ESPN The Magazine, could certainly afford to improve fan relations, though an assertion of hometown pride on the uniform will be insufficient to that end.

That being said, expect the “hometown” theme to be a recurrent one in this season and ones to follow. Thanks to team president Andy MacPhail, the Orioles have placed an emphasis on the farm system, and the keys to the team’s success will lie with “homegrown” players rather than pricey free agents past their prime. Two of these homegrown talents, RF Nick Markakis and 2B Brian Roberts, signed long-term contracts this offseason, and waiting in the minor leagues for promotions will be highly-prized prospects Matt Wieters (C), Brian Matusz (LHP), Jake Arrieta (RHP), and Chris Tillman (RHP). Wieters, Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year for 2008 after batting a combined .355/.454/.600 in Single-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie, will begin the season at Triple-A Norfolk and is not expected to remain there for long. His call to the majors is likely to coincide with the ability to extend arbitration and free agency an extra season and the insistence from officials at the Norfolk Naval Yard that his home runs are interfering with their satellite and radar systems.

Despite the strides made on the “homegrown” front, all discussions of the Orioles’ offseason must include some mention of missing out on a player who was literally homegrown, now-Yankee Mark Teixeira. Baltimore’s front office made its bid for the former Mount St. Joseph standout public with an offer in the ballpark of $150 million for seven years, but it is unlikely that Teixeira seriously considered the offer or even that the Orioles were doing any more than trying to be seen going after a seemingly obvious fit. Few can blame Angelos/MacPhail for not offering more money; as MacPhail put it: “The model we have to follow just doesn’t allow us to devote that much of our resources to one player, at least not at the current time.” And few can blame Teixeira for choosing more money to play on a perennial contender over a team with eleven straight losing seasons. Well, maybe you can: (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLWoZkm_6Xw)

Typically, the best part of the offseason is checking baseball news websites, knowing that the teams will be listed in alphabetical order so that Baltimore is guaranteed some time atop the AL East. While the re-signing of Roberts and Markakis and the bid for Teixeira dominated the headlines, MacPhail made other smart moves that, though partially unnoticed, provided offseason hope. Former All-Star Cesar Izturis will end the carousel at shortstop, and his solid defensive skills should compensate for his comparably weak bat. Acquired from the Cubs, Felix Pie will most likely be the everyday starting left fielder, if for no other reason than he is out of options. A speedy player that dominated the minor leagues, the Orioles hope that Pie lives up to his billing and can justify his placement in the outfield both with two potential All-Stars in Markakis and Adam Jones (CF) and in place of other qualified candidates. Most recently from the Toronto Blue Jays and nephew of 1983 World Series MVP (but more importantly, rain delay Hall of Famer) Rick Dempsey, Gregg Zaun will replace Ramon Hernandez as the starting catcher in his second tour with the O’s. Zaun, 38 in mid-April, will be keeping the plate umpire company until the promotion of Wieters, at which point he will assume a backup/mentorship role. Do not be surprised to see Zaun in an Orioles uniform in the coming years as an assistant coach. Rounding out the offseason position player acquisitions are utilitymen Ty Wigginton from Houston and Ryan Freel from Cincinnati. During the writing of this preview, Baltimore acquired Roberto Andino from the Florida Marlins as a backup shortstop.

Let’s take a look at how the Orioles will look on the field.

Projected Lineup/Offense (with 2008 statistics courtesy of baseballprospectus.com)

1. 2B Brian Roberts .296/.378/.450

2. 3B Melvin Mora .285/.342/.483

3. RF Nick Markakis .306/.406/.491

4. 1B Aubrey Huff .304/.360/.552

5. DH Luke Scott .257/.336/.472

6. CF Adam Jones .270/.311/.400

7. C Gregg Zaun .237/.340/.359

8. LF Felix Pie .241/.312/.325 (93 plate appearances)

9. SS Cesar Izturis .263/.319/.309

With respect to the lineup, there is some flexibility. In addition to Mora, Markakis will get plenty of starts in the 2-spot, and, if Jones has the breakout season many are expecting, he could compete for it as well. There will likely be a platoon system worked out between Pie and Freel in left field, and it is uncertain where exactly Freel would fit into the lineup. Other uncertainties may arise when Scott starts in left (his original and desired position), Wigginton starts at first base, or Wieters starts behind the plate, but the regular starting lineup is relatively stable.

Offensively, the team is strong. Roberts hopes to solidify his claim as a top leadoff hitter, a claim he already supported with a strong World Baseball Classic (albeit only four games). Markakis has the kind of offensive game that traditional and sabermetrically-inclined fans both love: he hits for average and OPS, he spreads the ball to all fields, and his power is likely to increase in the coming seasons. If Jones improves his plate discipline and baserunning as he develops, he will be a formidable hitter and, combined with his defense, likely make several runs at the All-Star game in his career. With the exception of Zaun, each player that does not have constitute a power threat possesses moderate speed, with several players capable of 20+ stolen bases.

Mora and Huff surprised everyone with their 2008 production. Though neither is getting any younger (37 and 33 respectively), both are entering contract years and will be feeling pressure to perform at a high level. One can expect significant contributions from numbers 1 through 6 in the lineup, and Izturis might be the only offensive liability. In 2008, Baltimore finished 11th in the majors in total runs, and there is little reason to believe that cannot be repeated. All of these analyses do not even take into account the fact that Matt Wieters is projected to be one of the top offensive catchers (if not the best) in all of baseball upon entering the league. Even if that is overly optimistic, it underscores the deep offensive weapons the team possesses.

Defense

When Baltimore pitchers keep the ball in play in Camden Yards, fans can expect to be treated to a defense with the potential to save runs and provide frequent highlights. The biggest strength is definitely the outfield, which makes a solid case for the best defensive outfield in all of professional baseball. Last season, Markakis had a .925 Revised Zone Rating (RZR), led AL corner outfielders in both Balls In Zone (295) and Out-Of-Zone plays (56), and led all AL outfielders in outfield assists, with 17. He would have been a near-lock for his first of many Gold Gloves if the award were actually based on performance and not solely reputation. Jones, though playing fewer innings due to injury, led AL centerfielders in RZR, and can expect to bring in some defensive hardware over his career. The addition of Pie, a speedster who can also play center, means that the Oriole outfield can cover a lot of ground, a necessity considering how many opportunities opponents will have to roam the basepaths. Freel and Scott will see significant time in left field and, though not as solid as the others, are experienced enough to be assets as backups. (Defensive statistics courtesy of dempseysarmy.blogspot.com)

The infield is older and not quite as strong, but the upgrade at shortstop is significant. In 2008, five players got significant time at a position that demands stability (at least in Charm City). In Izturis and Roberts, the Orioles have an above-average middle infield capable of producing a decent share of double plays. In Andino, Izturis has a solid backup, freeing manager Dave Trembley from having to play someone out of position should a substitution be necessary. The infield corners might present a defensive weakness. Despite Mora’s increased production at the plate, he has steadily declined in his performance at third base, ranking near the bottom of the American League in most defensive statistics. Huff at first base is more of a mystery, though he is fortunately in a position that can hide defensive deficiencies better. He was the everyday DH the past two seasons but logged nearly 1800 innings. According to his Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), which attempts to measure the number of runs saved or cost relative to the league average, Huff was slightly below average, costing the team about 2.6 runs (meaning his UZR was -2.6). With more practice in spring training and more innings under his belt, an optimistic Orioles fan (there are still some) can reasonably hope for an adequate glove at first base. Wigginton will provide quality innings at the corners (and also at second), but is not a viable long-term option if Mora and Huff really struggle. Behind the plate, Zaun’s age is certainly a concern, though his experience calling a game should benefit a pitching staff that might not even realize it is supposed to aim for his glove.

Pitching

Writers asked to do a Baltimore Orioles preview probably want to skip this section altogether. If baseball were a normal sport and consisted primarily of offense and defense, the Orioles would have an outside chance of competing in the AL East and a decent one in almost any other division in baseball. But, as the publisher makes known, baseball breaks your heart.

The O’s entered spring training with only two of the five spots in the starting rotation set: Jeremy Guthrie as the Opening Day starter and Koji Uehara as the #2. The bad news is not that these two likely would not be at the top of any other rotation; the bad news is that, heading north for the regular season, they still seem to be the only two spots set. Guthrie has been a rare bright spot in the past two seasons, seeming to live up to his potential as a top prospect when he was with the Cleveland Indians. MacPhail grabbed Uehara from the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan. Labeled by some as past his prime, he seems to have great control, the first step in curing the pitching staff’s horrendous walk rate. Though bright spots to be sure, their spring trainings have not been luminous. Guthrie pitched in the World Baseball Classic for the USA, getting knocked around for eight earned runs in less than four innings of work. In just over eleven innings on the mound in Florida, he has an ERA of 7.94 with 6 walks and 9 strikeouts. Uehara has performed better, striking out batters that lack a scouting report on him and walking few. However, a hamstring injury has sidelined him and limited his innings.

When those two are not starting, fans at Camden Yards will be petitioning to waive the two-beer limit at the concession stand (thankfully local favorites Clipper City and Backfin are featured on Eutaw Street and certain carts on the concourse). With the trade of Hayden Penn (the last of the latest crop of “can’t-miss” pitching prospects, which also included Adam Loewen and Daniel Cabrera) for Andino, it appears that the rotation will round out with Alfredo Simon (just five years ago he was Carlos Cabrera and younger than five years younger), Mark Hendrickson (formerly of the Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings, La Crosse Bobcats, and Cleveland Cavaliers), and Adam Eaton (picked up hitchhiking on Interstate 95 somewhere in Delaware). It is one thing to have disappointed scouts and be cast off from an organization. It is another thing altogether for those disappointments to result in the outing of a fake identity, the abandonment of a sport altogether, and a botched $24 million contract. The best-case scenario is that one of them is part of the rebuilding process beyond this year, though it is doubtful anyone legitimately expects that. Rich Hill, acquired from the Cubs in the offseason, will hopefully take the place of one of them once he returns from the disabled list. Hill, another prospect gone awry, is a southpaw hoping to live up to expectations he began to fulfill back in 2007, when he pitched 195 innings, striking out 183 and walking 63 with a WHIP of 1.19. In 2008, he seemed to forget how to find the strike zone, making him a perfect candidate for Baltimore. He was demoted first to Triple-A and then to Rookie Ball and has been likened, in several publications, to Rick Ankiel without the ability to switch positions. He claims that his problems were due to a back injury and not the mental blocks that have plagued many pressured pitchers. He will likely take the place of one of the Three Musketeers in late April, and, if he lives up to previous expectations, can make 60% of the rotation watchable. The clock is ticking on the arrival of Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta.

The bullpen, however, is capable of quality innings. In Jim Johnson, Chris Ray, and George Sherrill, the O’s have three decent relievers, and, based on the state of the starting rotation, they will need them. Johnson figures to be the long reliever, hoping to repeat a 2008 campaign in which he pitched nearly 70 innings without giving up a single home run. Ray and Sherrill have both worked as Baltimore’s closers, though Ray has not pitched since 2007, having undergone Tommy John surgery last year. Sherrill, a part of the Erik Bedard trade to Seattle that also brought Jones and Tillman, even pitched in the All-Star game in 2008 (before metaphorically unraveling in the second half) and collected 31 saves. Ray has pitched very well in spring training and will likely work the seventh and/or eighth innings this season. Though strong, they are likely to get overworked. The addition of Andino also means that the Orioles will only have twelve pitchers on the roster, so starting pitchers must eat their share of innings, or the bullpen will lose effectiveness as a result of being called upon to save the day.

Prediction

The Orioles will likely need to adjust the metrics by which they define success to be satisfied at the end of the year. Officially, the possibility remains that baseball will break others’ hearts to the extent that it has written the 11-year Dear John letter to the Orioles, and Brian Roberts will be leading a late-October parade around the Inner Harbor. However, the warehouse will need to hope for the continued development of Jones and Pie and the appointment (the opposite of disappointment?) of Wieters. Solid production from Mora, Huff, Sherrill, and Scott could result in July trades that bring in even more prospects. Trembley earned his way up the baseball ladder through the minor leagues, so he is a qualified captain for a ship sailing the waters of promotions, disappointments, and youth. Hopefully, he will be around to enjoy the success of which he will have been a crucial part in establishing.

Final 2009 record: 82-80

Baltimore will finish in fourth place and end the streak of losing seasons. The starting pitching will inevitably lose steam, but the promotions of Wieters and a couple of the arms will give the team momentum heading into 2010. Though MacPhail will continue to be patient, the next offseason will begin to shift the focus, and do not be surprised to see the Orioles making more than a token bid for a top-level free agent.

Enjoy. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8BMYo3Z7mc

Special thanks to the following publications for statistics and guidance:

baseballprospectus.com

dempseysarmy.blogspot.com

roarfrom34.blogspot.com

wikipedia.org

It Keeps Happening

Remember when the Angels weren't an AL West regal dynasty?

Since winning the 2002 World Series, the Angels have finished on top of the Western Division standings in 4 out of 6 seasons. Sure, they haven't made it back to a World Series in that stretch. But, to quote the above mentioned movie, "It Could Happen."


The 2009 Angels

The Angels will begin the season with their potential top 3 of their rotation on the Disabled List. Staff ace John Lackey has had right forearm issues and will miss his first few starts of the season. Ervin Santana, fresh off of an optimistic 2008 will miss at least the first month of the season with a tender right elbow. Kelvim Escobar, returning from a torn labrum, is progressing ahead of schedule and could be back by the end of April. With three of their horses on the shelf for the early going, the Angels will rely heavily on Joe Saunders (17 wins last season) and Jered Weaver (11 wins and 4.33 ERA in 2008). Dustin Moseley, who has fallen on his face in every opportunity given him to shine in the majors, will have a rotation slot early in the year. What he does with it is up to him.

After setting a new single-season record for saves, Francisco Rodriguez took a great deal of money and ran to Queens. He will he responsible for finishing games for the Mets in 2009. Despite speculation that youngster Jose Arredondo might get the closer nod, the Angels reloaded the back end of their bullpen by bringing in veteran Brian Fuentes from Colorado. Arredondo and Scot Shields will return to primary setup duties. Ageless lefty Darren Oliver is back for more situational and long relief use this season.


Bats

With the departure of last season's rental slugger, Mark Teixeira, to New York, the Angels are left with a big bat power void. The loss of the slugging 1st baseman means that Kendry Morales will get a shot at the start of the season to win the 1st base job and show that his dazzling power numbers from the minor leagues were not a mere illusion. After hitting .306 last season in an injury shortened 2008, Howie Kendrick once again has a claim to the starting job at 2nd base, if he can stay healthy. Erick Aybar, who the Orioles repeatedly turned down trading Miguel Tejada for prior to the 2007 season, is back for another try at producing offensively from shortstop spot. 2008 wasn't anything special for Chone Figgins. All of his numbers, including stolen bases, went down. But, he will start the year playing 3rd base.

The outfield got a little less crowded with the departure of Garret Anderson to free agency. The front office inked former-All Star Bobby Abreu to a contract and have penciled him in as the team's new leftfielder. Torii Hunter, last seasons big free agent prize, returns to patrol centerfield and drive in runs. Vlad Guerrero just turned 33 and may ave begun to show some signs of wear last season. But, a .303 average and 27 homers are still nothing to shake a stick at. Gary Matthews Jr and Juan Rivera will be the 4th and 5th outfielders. Matthews' contract remains an albatross around the Angels' collective necks, but, he's a well-above-average defensive replacement, spot starter, and pinch-hitter.

The catching job should be a season-long tussle between Jeff Mathis and Mike Napoli. Mathis hit a miserable .194 last season and Napoli had injury issues. Napoli's bat however, if healthy, makes him one of the game's finest backstops. He went deep 20 times last season in less than 300 plate appearances. Give him 450 to 550 plate appearances and he's an All Star.

Prediction:

There is no one in the NL West ready to challange the Angels. Especially if the three injured starting pitchers are able to pitch in near top form for most of the season, there is still loads more talent in Anaheim than in any other AL West town.

89-73. First Place AL West.