Unearned Runs

Early in the season I invoked George Will in praise of teams who do not allow many unearned runs. In Will's commentary on the performance of the suprising 1989 Orioles who went from a 54-107 record in 1988 to an 87-75 second-place finish in what was supposed to be a "gut the team rebuilding year." Will points out that the Orioles allowed only 6 earned runs in the teams first 54 games en route to building a sizeable lead in the American LEague East. During the second half of the season, the Orioles unearned run total shot upward, and their division lead evaporated.

Thus far in 2008, the data does not support a correlation between limiting unearned runs and winning. As of today, the teams which have allowed the fewest unearned runs (5) in baseball, the Yankees and Royals, are a combined 4 games under .500. The team which has allowed the most, Arizona (24), is 11 games over .500 and in first place in the NL West. In only 2 divisions, AL West and NL Central, is the team with the fewest unearned uns allowed currently in first place. Also in only 2 divisions, AL and NL Central, do we find the team with the most unearned runs allowed resting in the cellar.



The above plot doesn't show any real relation at this point. It looks more like a Jackson Pollack painting than the downward sloping graph that, before i dug up the stats, i was expecting. However, i do think that there are a couple of useful tidbits to be had:

-- Why are the Tigers in last place? 20 unearned runs hasn't helped.
-- Why is St Louis surprising alot of folks and holding first place? Only 6 unearned runs allowed.
-- Is Arizona for real? Not if the defense doesn't get any better.
-- Why haven't the Royals assumed their usual position at the bottom of the AL? Only 5 unearned runs allowed!

I'll revisit this topis occasionally. There may be a trend worth talking about by the All-Star game.